1. U.S. Agricultural Trade Prospects Butler/Cunningham Conference Montgomery, AL November 8, 2004 Carol Goodloe, USDA

3. Shifting Composition of U.S. Exports Bulk Consumer/HVP Intermediate

4. Shifting Destination of U.S. Exports East Asia NAFTA EU China

5. What’s Hot? What’s Not?

6. Crops: U.S. Share of World Exports

7. Meats: U.S. Share of World Exports PeriodBroilersBeefPork 1961-6916.41.37.2 1970-7912.41.69.6 1980-8916.55.34.4 1990-9940.011.612.5 2000-0331.415.212.7

8. Export Competition Remains Strong 2003/04 2013/14

9. Where Does Alabama Fit In? ItemShare of production Share of exports Broilers129 Peanuts11 Cotton34

10. Imports Take Off

11. Reactions to Growing Imports Trade Adjustment Assistance for Farmers –2002 Trade Act –Price & income triggers, increased imports –Shrimp, catfish qualified Increase in antidumping actions –Vietnamese catfish, Asian/South American shrimp –Among NAFTA partners: wheat, hogs, cattle, corn, beef, rice, HFCS, tomatoes, apples Country of origin labeling – consumer right to know or protectionism?

12. Corn Use Is Shifting

13. U.S. Agricultural Trade Surplus Narrows Exports Imports

14. Brazil’s Main Claims Against U.S. Cotton Programs U.S. support to cotton exceeded 1992 PFC, DP, MLA, CCP are support to cotton U.S. support “seriously prejudiced” Brazil by suppressing world prices Step 2 is illegal (domestic and export) Export credit guarantees are export subsidies and are illegal for cotton

15. Subsidies Suppress Prices

16. U.S. Cotton Exports Gain Unfair Market Share Foreign U.S.

17. U.S. Rebuttal U.S. support (rate) did not exceed 1992 Effect of marketing loan program depends on expected prices at planting Decoupled payments don’t support cotton Export credit programs were not export subsidies under URAA Step 2 is domestic support program Other factors caused world prices to fall – China’s stocks, exchange rates, U.S. mill use

18. U.S. Textile Imports Surge Exports Imports

19. What the Panel Ruled ☻U.S. support exceeded 1992 ☻PFC/DPs aren’t green box (planting restrictions) ☻Price-based support suppressed prices ☻Step 2 is illegal (domestic and export) ☻Export credits are export subsidies ☺PFC/DP’s, crop insurance – no effect ☺No threat, no unfair world market share

20. U.S. Agricultural Trade At a Crossroads? Feeling the pinch from imports – TAA for Farmers, AD actions, COOL WTO Dispute Settlement Panel -- Brazil challenge to U.S. cotton programs How will Doha Round play out? U.S. subsidies versus market access Next Farm Bill in 2007 – trade agreements, budget constraints