1. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 6 Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

2. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-2 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life n Six major issues: –Will developing countries be able to improve levels of living given anticipated population growth? –How will developing countries deal with the vast increases in their labor forces? –How will higher population growth rates affect poverty?

3. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-3 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life n Six major issues (cont’d): –Will developing countries be able to extend the coverage and improve the quality of health care and education in the face of rapid population growth? –Is there a relationship between poverty and family size? –How does affluence in the developed world affect the ability of developing countries to provide for their people?

4. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-4 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth—Past, Present, and Future n World population growth through history

5. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-5 Table 6.1

6. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-6 Figure 6.1a

7. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-7 Figure 6.1b

8. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-8 Table 6.2

9. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-9 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth—Past, Present, and Future n A brief history of human population growth n Structure of the world’s population –Geographic region

10. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-10 Figure 6.2

11. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-11 Table 6.3

12. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-12 Figure 6.3

13. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-13 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth—Past, Present, and Future n A brief history of human population growth n Structure of the world’s population –Geographic region –Fertility and mortality trends

14. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-14 Figure 6.4

15. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-15 Table 6.4

16. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-16 Table 6.5

17. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-17 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth—Past, Present, and Future n A brief history of human population growth n Structure of the world’s population –Geographic region –Fertility and mortality trends –Age structure and dependency burdens

18. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-18 A Review of the Numbers: Population Growth—Past, Present, and Future n A brief history of human population growth n Structure of the world’s population n The hidden momentum of population growth

19. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-19 Figure 6.5

20. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-20 Figure 6.6

21. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-21 The Demographic Transition n Stage I: High birthrates and death rates n Stage II: Continued high birthrates, declining death rates n Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing

22. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-22 Figure 6.7

23. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-23 Figure 6.8

24. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-24 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian Model n The Malthusian population trap

25. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-25 Figure 6.9

26. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-26 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian Model n The Malthusian population trap n Criticisms of the Malthusian model

27. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-27 Figure 6.10

28. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-28 Figure 6.11

29. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-29 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Household Model n The microeconomic household theory of fertility

30. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-30 Demand for Children Equation Where C d is the demand for surviving children Y is the level of household income P c is the “net” price of children P x is price of all other goods t x is the tastes for goods relative to children

31. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-31 Demand for Children Equation Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

32. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-32 Figure 6.12

33. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-33 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Household Model n The microeconomic household theory of fertility n The demand for children in developing countries n Some empirical evidence n Implications for development and fertility

34. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-34 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Opinions n Population growth isn’t a real problem n Overpopulation is a deliberately contrived false issue n Population growth is a desirable phenomenon n Population growth is a real problem n The empirical argument: the negative consequences of population growth

35. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-35 Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus n Despite the conflicting opinions, there is some common ground

36. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-36 Some Policy Approaches n What can developing countries do?

37. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-37 Table 6.6

38. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-38 Some Policy Approaches n What developing countries can do n What the developed countries can do: resources, population, and the global environment n How developed countries can assist developing countries

39. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-39 Concepts for Review n Birthrate n Death rate n Demographic transition n Doubling time n Empowerment of women n Family-planning programs n Fertility n Hidden momentum of population growth n Infant mortality rate n Life expectancy at birth n Malthusian population trap

40. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-40 Concepts for Review (cont’d) n Microeconomic theory of fertility n Mortality n Natural increase n Net international migration n Population-poverty cycle n Population pyramid n Positive checks n Preventative checks n Rate of population increase n Reproductive choice n Total fertility rate n Youth dependency ratio