1. Cost of construction of nuclear power plants 1967-71 32 light water reactor plants cost in dollars e-06 log date permit issued plant capacity log NE USA? cooling tower? number by engineer log partial turnkey? contractor assume responsibility Question. Future costs?

2. library(boot) nuclear6<-nuclear[,c(1,2,5,7,8,10,11)] nuclear6 cost date cap ne ct cum.n pt 1 460.05 68.58 687 1 0 14 0 2 452.99 67.33 1065 0 1 1 0 3 443.22 67.33 1065 0 1 1 0 4 652.32 68.00 1065 1 1 12 0 5 642.23 68.00 1065 1 1 12 0 6 345.39 67.92 514 1 1 3 0 7 272.37 68.17 822 0 0 5 0 8 317.21 68.42 457 0 0 1 0 9 457.12 68.42 822 0 0 5 0 10 690.19 68.33 792 1 1 2 0 11 350.63 68.58 560 0 0 3 0 12 402.59 68.75 790 1 0 6 0 13 412.18 68.42 530 0 1 2 0 14 495.58 68.92 1050 0 0 7 0 15 394.36 68.92 850 0 0 16 0 16 423.32 68.42 778 0 0 3 0 17 712.27 69.50 845 1 0 17 0 18 289.66 68.42 530 0 1 2 0 19 881.24 69.17 1090 0 0 1 0 20 490.88 68.92 1050 0 0 8 0

3. summary(nuclear6) cost date cap ne Min. :207.5 Min. :67.17 Min. : 457.0 Min. :0.00 1st Qu.:310.3 1st Qu.:67.90 1st Qu.: 745.0 1st Qu.:0.00 Median :448.1 Median :68.42 Median : 822.0 Median :0.00 Mean :461.6 Mean :68.58 Mean : 825.4 Mean :0.25 3rd Qu.:612.0 3rd Qu.:68.92 3rd Qu.: 947.2 3rd Qu.:0.25 Max. :881.2 Max. :71.08 Max. :1130.0 Max. :1.00 ct cum.n pt Min. :0.0000 Min. : 1.000 Min. :0.0000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.: 3.000 1st Qu.:0.0000 Median :0.0000 Median : 7.500 Median :0.0000 Mean :0.4062 Mean : 8.531 Mean :0.1875 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:12.500 3rd Qu.:0.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :21.000 Max. :1.0000

4. y<-log(nuclear6[,1]);x1<-nuclear6[,2];x2<- log(nuclear6[,3]) x3<-nuclear6[,4];x4<-nuclear6[,5];x5<- log(nuclear6[,6]);x6<-nuclear6[,7] x3<-factor(x3);x4<-factor(x4);x6<-factor(x6) summary(cbind(y,x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6)) nuc.lm<-lm(y~x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6) summary(nuc.lm)

5. Call: lm(formula = y ~ x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 + x6) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.32721 -0.07620 0.02920 0.08115 0.28946 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -13.26031 3.13950 -4.224 0.000278 *** x1 0.21241 0.04326 4.910 4.70e-05 *** x2 0.72341 0.11882 6.088 2.31e-06 *** x31 0.24902 0.07414 3.359 0.002510 ** x41 0.14039 0.06042 2.323 0.028582 * x5 -0.08758 0.04147 -2.112 0.044891 * x61 -0.22610 0.11355 -1.991 0.057490. --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Residual standard error: 0.1592 on 25 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.8569, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8225 F-statistic: 24.95 on 6 and 25 DF, p-value: 2.058e-09

6. par(mfrow=c(1,2)) plot(x1,nuc.lm$res,main="Residuals vs. date"); lines(lowess(x1,nuc.lm$res)) plot(x2,nuc.lm$res,main="Residuals vs. log(capacity)"); lines(lowess(x2,nuc.lm$res))

7. par(mfrow=c(1,2)) plot(nuc.lm$fit,nuc.lm$res,main="Residuals vs. fit"); lines(lowess(nuc.lm$fit,nuc.lm$res)) qqnorm(nuc.lm$res);qqline(nuc.lm$res)

8. > inf$infmat[1:3,] dfb.1_ dfb.x1 dfb.x2 dfb.x31 dfb.x41 dfb.x5 dfb.x61 1 0.13699836 -0.1185464 -0.1026110 0.12339784 -0.1377726 0.1340042 -0.11326486 2 -0.03276227 0.0948003 -0.2446834 0.06291076 -0.1516520 0.1738125 0.05941037 3 -0.03955746 0.1144627 -0.2954330 0.07595902 -0.1831060 0.2098628 0.07173262 dffit cov.r cook.d hat 1 0.3018955 1.555922 0.01338328 0.2208076 2 -0.4721129 1.509224 0.03232789 0.2632286 3 -0.5700333 1.392172 0.04658837 0.2632286

9. par(mfrow=c(1,2));ask=FALSE) inf<-influence.measures(nuc.lm);lev<-inf$infmat[,11] p<-sum(lev);n<-length(lev) plot(lev,main="leverage values");abline(h=p/n) cook<-inf$infmat[,10] plot(cook,main="Cook's distance");abline(h=4/(n-p))

10. fit<-predict(nuc.lm,interval="confidence") plot(fit[,1],type="l"); title("Predicted costs") lines(fit[,2],col="blue"); lines(fit[,3],col="blue")

11. library(MASS) boxcox(nuclear6[,1]~x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6,lambda = seq(-1.0, 1.0, length = 10))