1. A Tour of the World: August 2004 The USA: Global Hegemon Locomotive of the 1990s…now slowed Lender of last resort in the ‘90s Mexico ’94 - 95 … East Asia ’97 - 98 Kindleberger,World In Depression:1929-39 US at War Ballooning Budget Deficit/Trade Deficit Depreciating Dollar Can others join? Will others join? Post-bubble Japan: Its “rightful place” Europe: Stability and Growth(?) Pact Russia???: Peace Corps “washing hands” China: Grand Ambitions

3. Energy supply Saudi Arabia … our enemy? Chad – Cameroon Pipeline Afghanistan: turf wars (pipeline routes) Russia … oil and gas Russia … nuclear tech for Iran/Iraq

4. Any upside? China’s boomtowns but immense rural backwardness India’s “Silicon Valley” but immense rural backwardness

5. The BIG Picture: global urbanization The top ten: Tokyo … 25 mil Bombay … 20+ Lagos Sao Paulo … 20 Dhaka Karachi … 20- Mexico City Shanghai New York … 15 Calcutta Urbanization with inadequate infrastructure Asia’s blanket of smog

6. The Big Picture: World Income Distribution (Xavier Sala – i – Martin) 1970 – 1998: somewhat improved owing to Chinese development African decline threatens to reverse (somewhat) positive trend

15. The BIG Picture: effective use of available resources Recall Solow Growth Model Y = A K a L (1-a) Country Technology Coefficients (Nazrui Islam) HK = 38 SNG = 24 CN = 29 E = 22 US = 28 B = 22 UK = 24 F = 22 N = 24 J = 22 Correlation with human capital measures “Convergence Clubs” … all countries don’t converge to same income or growth rate Natural resource effect