1. Spatial Indices of Upwelling 1) Coastal Topography

2. Premise Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry

3. How to quantify coastal topography?

4. ‘Coastal Anomaly’ Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press

5. BaysHeadlands

6. (Embayments) 0 +1.0 (Headlands) Normalized residual from smoothed coast COASTAL STRUCTURE Along-coast Distance (km) Scale of Smoothing (km)

7. Smoothing Scale=1000 km COASTAL STRUCTURE

8. Smoothing Scale=50 km COASTAL STRUCTURE

9. S. Africa WNAChile Coastal Topographic Index

10. Easily calculated Data readily available Arbitrarily high resolution Can index processes at multiple scales Indirect index; index of upwelling or any other process depends on nature of coupling Not dynamic (no time component) Oversimplified? Cons Pros

11. SST

12. Spatial Indices of Upwelling 2) SST-derived indices

13. time longitude latitude Coastal SST

14. Latitudinal mean at each pixel

15. Topographic Index and dSST Spatial Series

16. C) Topo vs. Δ SST Correlation between Topo and dSST indices

17. Correlation with Bakun Regional Index

18. Ecosystem Structure

19. Spatial patterns of kelp and phytoplankton Biomass Areal cover

20. chl-a vs. kelp Spatial Cross-Correlations

21. A) Topo vs. kelp B) Topo vs. chl-a C) Topo vs. Δ SST Spatial Cross-Correlations

22. Jones et al 1988, Cont Shelf Res

23. Approximately the same characteristic scale Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

24. VariableNugget (SE)Sill (SE)Range (SE) (km) Kelp0.35 (0.09)0.65 (0.09)188 (100) Chl-a0.13 (0.08)0.87 (0.08)178 (34) ΔSST † 0.008 (0.007)0.992 (0.007)151 (18) Coast Anomaly0.04 (0.03)0.96 (0.03)161 (40) Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

25. Onshore Community Patterns

26. South Africa 58 sites along 2000 km of coast WNA 73 sites along 6000 km of coast Chile 26 sites 1000 km of coast

27. What scale of coastal features matter to the process you’re interested in? Correlation between variable of interest and topographic index at each smoothing scale

28. -25-20-15-10-50510152025 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Along-coast Lag Distance (km) Cross-Correlation Scale of pattern is just part of the question Peak @ 15 km in the poleward direction

29. Correlations with Coastal Anomaly – South Africa

30. Correlation with Coastal Anomaly – Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

31. Chile – Upwelling-Recruitment Dynamics Seen in Bare Space?

32. Coastal Topography and Physical Forcing CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

33. Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

34. Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Trophic Grps CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

35. Long-term Average Recruitment vs. Topography at 21 Coastal Sites Green=Chthamalus Black=Balanus

36. Balanus r2=0.84, p<0.0001 Multiple regression with: Topo10km, Topo150km, Coastal Coordinate (linear latitudinal trend)

38. Other processes correlated with topography

40. Aside… Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Data Integration & Complex Hypothesis Testing

41. Santa Barbara Offshore Ocean Nearshore Ocean Site 3 Site 4 Site 2 Site 1 Offshore Larval Pool

42. Santa Barbara Offshore OceanNearshore Ocean Recruitment Offshore Larval Pool Sea Temp (SST) Chlorophyll A Current Recruitment 16 points in time, each describing previous month

43.  0,  1, m 2 R it ~Poisson(F t H it e  i ) k,S Likelihood: Parameters: Priors: N(0,10 -3 ) vague Data: SST t-TS G it R it IG(10 -3,10 - 3 ) vague N(0,10 -3 ) vague Links: F t = k + S TS *SST t-TS Logit(H it )=  0 +  1 G it +  g  g ~N(0,m 2 )  i ~N(0,  2 ) IG(2,10) informative 22  TS=0 2 i = space index, t = time index Offshore Larval Pool Onshore Delivery Combine these to get Recruitment

44. Chl, gate+errror, Gamma SST, gate+errror, Gamma SST, gate+errror, Poisson SST, gate+errror, Poisson, site effects