1. Agriculture – Global, Regional and National Issues in Perspective
Mangala Rai
President
National Academy of Agricultural Sciences
New Delhi, India

2. Where We Stand ?
First World Food Summit promised to “eradicate world hunger within a decade”.
Since then, 3 World Food Summits held and resolved to reduce world hunger only to half by 2015.
Different scenarios depict 2.3% to 3.3% global economic growth and population varying from 8.1 to 14.0 billion in 2080.

3. People at risk of hunger, baseline projection
REF Million
2000
2010
2020
2030
2050
Africa
198
253
289
319
326
Asia, East
172
142
111 80 35
Asia, South
359
361
303
219 72
Latin America 58 61 55 51 30
Middle East & N. Africa 43 50 49 39
Rest of World 53 47 46 33
World
884
918
854
765
536

4. Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on current rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s
Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

5. Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2 2080s
Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

6. Economic Impacts of Climate Change Hadley A1F1 Scenario 2080
% Ag GDP % Cereal Production
World
Developed
North America
Europe
Developing
Africa
Latin America
Asia
World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario)
Cereals : 19.5% All crops : 10.5%

7. Agriculture Spending to Total Spending by Developing Country Governments
Year
Africa
Asia
Latin America
1980
6.4
15.0
8.0
2002
4.5
5.6
2.5

8. Country Background
Source : FAO database.

9. Trend in Food Inflation Year on Year (%) Change
Food inflation started rising from 2004.
Reached double digit during 2008.
It is continuing to remain high even during 2009.

10. Projected impacts of climate change
Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions
Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock

11. These emissions are largely from the industrialized countries as is evident from the per capita emission of greenhouse gases of different regions

12. How can we Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture?
Improve management of water and fertilizers in rice paddies; use nitrification inhibitors, fertilizer placement/schedules
Improve management of livestock population and its diet
Increase soil carbon: minimal tillage, residue management
Improve energy use efficiency in agriculture: better designs of machinery, and by conservation practices
Change land use: increasing area under biofuels, agro-forestry - but trade-off with food production.

13. How to adapt Agriculture to Climate Change?
Investments in adaptation research capacity: varieties, land use systems, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance
Changes in policies e.g. incentives for conservation of carbon, water, and energy; and use efficiency, pricing of resources
Investments in infrastructure for water management
Greater insurance coverage for the farm
Improved communication of climate changes and options to adapt to them
Creating alternate livelihood options and reducing dependence on agriculture

14. Enhance Research Capacity and International Collaboration
Development of climate responsive crops and land use systems
Seasonal weather forecasts
Regionally differentiated contingency plans for increased risk management
Reexamine water and fertilizer management with added dimension of reducing GHG emissions.
Determine optimal size of livestock population considering milk requirement, diet, greenhouse gas emissions, and social issues.
Development of decision support systems for policy guidance

15. Strengthen Institutions
Establish an Agricultural Intelligence System for impact of weather and inputs on production of important commodities at national as well as international level.
Increase pest surveillance
Explore feasibility of establishing feed, fodder, and seed banks
Increase farm insurance coverage using weather derivatives
Enhance climate literacy

16. Major Challenges in Agriculture
Raise and sustain agriculture growth
Enhance income and employment
Ensure food and nutrition security
Adapt to climate change
Adjust to changes in energy scenario
Maintain bio safety and bio security
Make sustainable use of natural resources
Protect bio-diversity
Adjust to global shocks

17. New Opportunities Biotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistas
Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn the environment favourable
Trend towards Bios:
Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio molecules, bio medicine, bio cosmetics
New Commerce and trade: Food chain, processing, value addition
Regional cooperation in pest management, technology generation, adoption, human resource development

18. Green Revolution to Gene Revolution18

19. Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining
Why Transgenics ?
Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining
Developing countries
World
Developed countries 1 2 3
Percentage increase per year
1967–1982
1982–1994
1995–2020
This is important because agricultural yield increases are less than half what they were 30 years ago. 19

20. Why Transgenics? More food Better quality food Safer food
Healthier foods
Designer foods 20

21. Why Transgenics ? The projected world population growth
70-75 millions per year for next 50 years

22. Microbes are the Factory of Metabolic Products
Amino acids
Nucleotides
Vitamins
Solvents
Organic acids
Hypocholesterolemic agents
Enzyme inhibitors
Immunosuppressants
Biopesticides.
Microherbicides
Plant growth promoters and disease
suppressor
Biocontrol agents
Biofertilizers
Millions tons are produced
each year with a total
multibillion
dollar market
Markets of over
50 billion
dollars per year.
Markets of over
700 billion
dollars per year.

23. CA Systems: Rely on Multi-Disciplinary Efforts
Good CA-based Implements
(Ag Engineering)
Efficient Genotypes
(Breeding/Physiology/Protection)
Good Crop Management
(Agronomy/Soils)
Profitable
CA based
technologies
that Farmers can
Adopt and Use

24. Generic areas for priority attention
Hybrid culture in Agriculture
Transgenic culture in Agriculture
Water productivity enhancement and multiple use of water
Input use efficiency enhancement
Increasing precision in agriculture
Enhanced protected cultivation
Biosensors, Biofuels, Biomolecules, Biofortification, Biosafety, Biosecurity, Bioremediation, Biofertilization
IT-based decision support systems for technology transfer
Processing, storage and loss reduction
Capacity building

25. Generic areas for priority attention contd..
Making land and water resources development and utilization economically viable
Enforcing environmental laws to control water pollution, land degradation and erosion
Providing adequate public funds for conducting frontier research
Mass movement and large-scale people’s participation in development, supply and utilization of water and land resources at all levels

26. Generic areas for priority attention contd..
Enhance investment in irrigation infrastructure, and efficient water use technologies.
Develop policy framework for greater adoption of scientific pricing policies for water, land, energy, and other resources.
Consider financial incentives for improved land management, e.g. resource conservation/ enhancement (water, carbon).
Consider incentives to industry and farmers for reducing emissions such as for neem coated urea
Explore international partnerships for joint research and technology development

27. Thanks