1. The Market for TETRA - Now and in the Future
September 2009 by IMS Research
SLIDE 1 – INTRODUCTION SLIDE

2. IMS Research
A brief introduction to IMS Research, and why we are speaking today:
Market Research Company – Business-to-business research and analysis
Over 20 Years of Experience – Undertaking primary research since 1989
Over 80 Analysts – Based in Europe, Americas and Asia
Focused – Specialises in electronics and related markets
Detailed Analyses – Over 150 detailed reports and services each year, with a typical 4 to 5 month report cycle.
TETRA Research – Team of analysts covering the licensed and unlicensed mobile radio markets for over 10 years, covering all digital and analogue technologies.
EMEA and Asian shipment tracking services
WW Market for Licensed Mobile Radio
WW Market for TETRA Terminals
WW Market for DMR & DPMR
I don’t want to bore you too much about IMS Research, but I would like to qualify us as a source of reliable, well researched information on the TETRA market. So as a company we have been in operation for over 20 years now with over 80 analysts across our three main offices worldwide. We have developed a reputation for focused, high quality research on a range of core electronics areas, one of which being mobile radio and TETRA. We have been covering this market for over 10 years and run a number of quarterly tracking services with leading manufacturers. We also produce a number of reports in the area with our two flagship offerings being our WW LMR report and our recently pulished TETRA terminals report.
作为一家市场研究公司， IMS Research已经成功运作20多年，现有80多名分析师分布在全球三个办公地点。因为IMS Research高质量的研究报告和长期专注于电子领域，我们在电子行业建立了良好的声誉，其中就包括集群通讯和TETRA领域。从TETRA发展初期，IMS Research就开始关注于TETRA市场研究，通过在TETRA领域十年来的研究经验积累，以及和行业内领先公司的密切合作，我们每个季度都会提供可靠的终端出货数据跟踪服务。我们还提供集群通讯领域的各种报告，包括全球的Licensed Mobile Radio的报告和刚刚出版的TETRA终端报告，以及即将出版的DMR/DPMR报告。

3. IMS Research Mobile Radio Clients
This is just a quick slide to illustrate some the mobile radio clients that we have worked with over the last 2 years specifically on mobile radio. As you can see, it is a broad spectrum of clients from handset and infrastructure manufacturers to system integrators, network operators and financial institutions.
这是最近两年IMS Research公司在集群通讯领域内的一部分客户名单，可以看到，这些客户名单覆盖了整个集群通讯产业链的上下游，其中包括终端供应商，系统设备供应商，系统集成商，网络运营商，芯片供应商和一些金融机构。

4. Introduction The current LMR Market TETRA in the PSS space
Drivers and inhibitors for TETRA in the non-PSS space
Key Markets for future uptake
China TETRA Market
TETRA in the Future
So enough about IMS Research. The presentation today will look at the current LMR market and some of the widely held myths about the industry from those looking in. I have spent time working in and analysing other technology markets and the mobile radio market is very unique and doesn’t obey the usual laws of consumer devices markets. We will then look at the current TETRA market, followed by a look at the uptake of TETRA across a number of key non-PSS markets.
说了太多关于IMS Research公司的情况，现在回到今天的演讲主题上来。我们首先会浏览一下现在的LMR市场状况。接下来我们会谈到TETRA市场的现状, 比如TETRA在公共安全领域和ＴＥＴＲＡ在不同细分市场的发展， 还会谈到TETRA发展的驱动力和的障碍，接下来会谈谈TETRA在中国市场发展情况，最后我们会展望TETRA的未来。

5. Myth 1: The LMR market ≠ PSS
Overall LMR Market
Myth 1: The LMR market ≠ PSS
A widely held misconception about mobile radio is that it is just about public safety. Worldwide, well over 50% of the market is actually made up by non-PSS or other vertical markets. In particular, there is a very strong analogue installed base in the transport, utilities and business sectors, where mobile radio has a strong history.
Without doubt PSS is the key market and is almost always the key driver for new applications, services and technology evolutions. Individual PSS contracts tend to be much larger than in other vertical markets, which is why it tends to receive more interest. However, in absolute terms, Non-PSS outweighs PSS and despite the non-mission critical element of many of these businesses they still have very similar requirements in their communications technologies.
这里有一个常见的误解，认为集群通讯市场就是公共安全市场。
不可否认，公共安全市场是一个相当重要的细分市场。 新应用，新服务和新技术都会在公共安全市场首先得到应用。
因为单个的公共安全合同会比其他领域的单个合同数量大很多，所有的厂商和业内人士都会关注这个领域。
但是，从绝对数量来看，全世界５０％以上的市场是由非公共安全的其他细分市场构成，
比如交通运输领域，民用事业领域和普通商业领域。在这些领域，集群通讯系统得到广泛的应用，特别是模拟系统取得了极大的成功。

6. Overall LMR Market
Myth 2: Cellular will not kill the LMR Industry Instantaneous Voice Priority & Security Reliability & Resilience Direct Mode Communications Cost
For many of you who are involved directly in this market, this will not come as any surprise but it often amazes me how little is known and understood about mobile radio outside of the market. It has been a widely held view for a number of years that particularly for non-PSS organisations, cellular would eat up the market. Even with the arrival of push-to-talk over cellular, the market has still struggled to convince users to migrate. At a time will cellular networks in mature markets are starting to reach saturation point, the Mobile Radio market has continued to grow. Our tracking services are showing total growth over between 2 and 10%. Which is significant for a market that has been around for as long as this one has.
For me the main reasons for this are highlighted above. There is no other communications method that offers the same combination of security, reliability and priority as mobile radio. Furthermore, while it often taken for granted, instantaneous voice is still a rare commodity on other technologies. We have just completed a feasibility study on the potential for PoC in North America and overwhelmingly, these were the reasons why end-users continue to use mobile radio.
蜂窝移动通讯技术不会取代集群通讯技术。
对于熟悉集群通讯的业内人士来说，这一点并不意外。　但是另我感到吃惊的是一些不在集群通讯领域人士对这一点却知之甚少。
近年来，随着ＰＴＴ和ＰＯＣ的发展，有一种观点认为蜂窝移动通讯技术会取代集群通讯技术，特别是在非公共安全领域。
但是，通过IMS Research的季度数据跟踪服务可以看到，蜂窝移动通讯在一些发达国家已经很成熟，开始达到饱和状态，但总体来讲，集群通讯市场依然可以保持１０％以内的稳定增长。
从技术上来讲，没有其他通讯技术能像集群通讯技术一样同时保证保密性，可靠性和优先级别通讯。
实时语音通讯在其他通讯技术上很难做到，而集群通讯能做到一对一直呼，一对多的群呼，既所谓的一呼百应。

7. Myth 3: TETRA is not an old technology
Overall LMR Market
Myth 3: TETRA is not an old technology
TETRA has been around for 15 years now, but is still at a very early stage of adoption. Getting back to one of my original points on this market, right or wrong this is a very slow moving market that does not show the same agressive tipping points and s shaped curves as other markets migrating from analogue to digital. Currently less than 10% of the worldwide LMR market has migrated to TETRA. Furthermore, TETRA is now established as the leading digital standard worldwide and is set to show significant growth over the next 5 years as users migrate from analogue to digital at an increasing rate. Looking into the future the market will move towards a system of system approach taking advantage of commercial technologies. However, TETRA is also still at the core of any evolutionary path for the LMR industry.
ＴＥＴＲＡ技术已经有１５年的发展历史了，但仍然处于早期市场培育期。
与其他行业从模拟转换到数字不同，集群通讯行业数字转换过程进行的非常缓慢，数字系统增长的曲线比较平缓，没有达到拐点，现在只有不到１０％的LMR市场已经切换到ＴＥＴＲＡ。
作为领先的数字集群标准，TETRA在接下来的5年之内会取得显著的增长，模拟集群向数字集群的转换的速度也会加快。

8. Current Worldwide Uptake of Digital Technologies for PSS
TETRA
TETRA
P25
TETRA
????
????
P25
So where has TETRA emerged worldwide over the last years.
I think it is clear that as an ETSi standard with harmonised frequency bands, TETRA is now the dominant technology in Europe.
However, about 5 years ago the world makret was opening up to digital LMR with TETRA copeting with P25 and a host of proprietary technologies such as Tetrapol, EDACs and OpenSky. However, over the last 5 years we have seen TETRA also emerge as the preferred digital technology for many LMR users in Asia and MEA. Most recently, the China Olympics used a shared TETRA network to support efforts at the Beijing Olympics. The Russian ministry for information and communications has also outlined a multi-year plan to roll out TETRA networks for PSS and transport organisations.
In the middle east we have seen similar progress with uptake of other technologies largely mlimited to military and covert operations.
Africa and South America largely remain up for grabs, on the basis that the majority of the installed base has yet to migrate to digital. However, the low cost of TETRA equipment has led to many citywide TETRA networks established in these regions, suggesting that TETRA will emerge as the dominant technology over the next 5 years.
Both the USA and Australia have been P25 strongholds. In particular, P25 has emerged as the standard of choice for PSS on North America. Australia’s comparable topography and population densities has seen many PSS organisations choose P25. However, despite this, there has been renewed calls to open up the North American market to Tetra, particularly from utiulities companies, while in Australia, we have seen the rollout of a number of PAMR networks from Motorola and Airwave.
However, over the last 10 years, it is fair to say that the market has been primarily concentrated on PSS organisations. So why has this been the case?
那么在过去的15年时间里TETRA在世界上那些地方得到了应用呢？
作为ETSI的标准之一，凭借拥有的频率资源， TETRA在欧洲已经占据统治地位。
5年以来，TETRA在集群通信市场从与P25，Tetrapol， EDACS和Opensky竞争当中脱颖而出。 TETRA在欧洲，中东，北非，亚洲成为LMR用户首选的数字集群技术。在俄罗斯，俄罗斯信息与通讯部出台了一个在公共安全领域和交通领域部署TETRA网络的规划。在非洲和南美，虽然绝大多数的存量市场都还没有转为数字系统。但是，很多覆盖整个城市的ＴＥＴＲＡ网络已经开始建设，ＴＥＴＲＡ将在未来５年内成为这些地区的主导性数字集群技术。
美国和澳大利亚是Ｐ２５的大本营。Ｐ２５已经成为北美公共安全市场的主要选择，但很多用户还是希望使用ＴＥＴＲＡ，特别是工业，石油石化，采矿，造船的用户。
由于地广人稀，澳大利亚的很多公共安全组织选择了Ｐ２５，　但同时，Ｍotorola和Airwave 也在澳大利亚部署一些ＴＥＴＲＡ的共网。

9. Market Inhibitors for non-PSS organisations
ASPs: Previously, the price delta between analogue and TETRA was too significant for many non-PSS organisations to consider migration.
Devices: Devices have been previously designed with PSS users in mind. This has limited the benefit to other vertical markets with specific requirements.
Voice orientated: The analogue market is traditionally voice-centric. The key benefit and sustainability of analogue LMR is instantaneous voice on a reliable network. In many cases analogue has adequately met this demand.
Replacement rates: Existing analogue users have been slow to migrate.
Previously TETRA radios could be between 3 and 5 time more expensive that their analogue equivalent. Furthermore, TETRA is designed for large urban environments, with densely populated users. Rolling out networks for a small number of users acorss a large area was initially very exspensive.
The Technology was initially designed to meet the unique requirements of PSS users and as discussed they represent the bulk of the initial addressable market. Consequently, all devices and related services have been designed around this market.
As discussed earlier, the LMR market has thrived on its instantaneous voice capability and voice communications remain the primary reaso for choosing LMR for much of the non-PSS installed base. Although TETRA offers improved signal quality the additional benefits have not been enough to justify the additional cost. Similarly
The final point relates to replacement rates, where a typical network will last years. As a result many end-users have attepted to maximise their return on investment by only considering digital migration as and when their existing network requires a complete upgrade.
首先，ＴＥＴＲＡ设备和终端的价格是相应模拟设备价格的的３到５倍。
另外，因为公共安全领域是集群通讯的主要目标市场，TETRＡ设备和相关服务最初也是为了适应公共安全领域用户的特殊需要而设计的。
TETRA是为具有一定人口密度的大型城市设计，如果覆盖面积广，用户数量少的话，用ＴＥＴＲＡ就显得非常昂贵。
模拟系统是典型的语音调度导向的，而简单的语音调度功能就能满足大多数的用户的需要，　ＴＥＴＲＡ提供的更好的信号质量和附加的数据功能并不能说服用户花多几倍的钱使用ＴＥＴＲＡ。
最后一点和替换率有关，通常，一个网络可以使用１０到１５年。　很多用户希望能够使他们的投资回报率最大化，所以当他们的网络需要完全升级的时候，他们只是考虑部分的数字化。

10. Market Drivers for non-PSS organisations
ASPs: in some cases, TETRA terminal ASP have fallen by 40% over the last 2/3 years.
Devices: There is now a greater range of devices available, with the launch of ATEX radios, PDAs, MDTs and multi-mode radios. These provide clear benefits over analogue as well as an easy migration path.
R&D spend on analogue technologies has decreased significantly over the last 5 years. Eventually many will be forced to move.
The ability to offer secure, high speed data will appeal to a number of non-PSS markets.
The availability of TETRA IP and data help to generate new entrants which will further advance the points raised above.
So what has changed. For a start the openness of the TETRA standard has driven down costs. Couple this with the fact that many manufacturers have now made back their initial R&D investment in the technology and IMS Research has seen ASPs fall by as much as 40% over the last 2/3 years.
What we are also seeing now is a move into a variety of different devices that will cater to non-PSS markets. In some cases these are general purpose devices such as PDas and mobile data terminals. But we have also seen a variety of ATEX radios emerge for the utilities market and the emergence of manufacturers designing customised radios for market such as transport.
On the infrastructure side, TETRA is a very spectrally efficient technology for many end users, in a market where spectrum availability is severely limited.
What we are also noticing is that equipment manufacturers are spending les and less on developing new devices and features for the analogue market. The long term view here is to eventually phase analogue producs out of the market.
The ability to provide secure data has been a big draw particularly in the utilities market, where data monitoring and SCADA remain vital. With many of these organisations open to the threat of sabotage or terrorist attacks, secure communications of data is essential. In other areas, such as transport, the inclusion of digitla offers a number of new features that could not be offered on analogue. To give an example, buses with GPS-enabled TETRA radios can be tracked to feed dynamic arrival times to passangers.
Overall the fact that TETRA is an open standard with limited barriers to entry for manufacturers has enabled to reach more vertical markets, across more geographic regions at a low cost than any other digital, LMR technology.
ＴＥＴＲＡ技术标准开始逐步开放使ＴＥＴＲＡ设备价格下降。在过去的两三年时间里，ＴＥＴＲＡ终端的单价下降了４０％。
在集群终端方面，设备制造商为非公共安全领域的客户提供了多样化的不同设备以满足客户不同的需求．比如通用的ＰＤＡ和移动数据终端。另外为石油石化，矿山，气田设计的防爆设备。这些定制化的设计会实实在在的带给用户利益。
在集群设备方面，通讯领域，频谱资源非常紧张，ＴＥＴＲＡ系统比较节约频谱资源。
我们注意到设备供应商正在越来越多的消减为模拟市场研发的费用。从长期来看，模拟产品终将被淘汰。
随着恐怖袭击和突发性事件的增多，保密性越来越成为众多组织和机构考虑的问题，ＴＥＴＲＡ系统具备模拟系统不具备的保密性，这同样将吸引很多非公共安全领域的用户选择ＴＥＴＲＡ。
另外，ＴＥＴＲＡ的数据功能也满足了一些行业提供特殊需要，比如说安装了具备ＧＰＳ功能的ＴＥＴＲＡ终端后，可以很方便的掌握公交车的行动路线和到达时间， 可以将到站信息动态的通知乘客。

11. Transport IMS Research estimates a CAGR of 20% over the next 5 years.
Currently the second largest market for TETRA radios.
Strong growth across a number of areas.
Public Transport
Bus - Bogota, Lisbon, Bergamo, Gothenburg,
Train/Metro - London Underground, Eurotunnel, St. Petersburg URDS, TGV, Taipei MRT, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Madrid, Paris RATP.
Airports – Schiphol Airport (5K), Spanish Airports, CAAC, London Heathrow, Munich Airport, Delhi Airport
So what non-PSS markets are showing strong uptake of TETRA. In the transport sector we expect to see a CAGR of over 20%. Already we have seen strong success for TETRA across a number of publc transport organisations, with the Transport market representing the second largest market WW for TETRA. In particular, metors and airports have seen very strong success over the last ¾ years, with contract sizes ranging from 100 to 6000 in some cases
The RTU's. Remote Telemetry (or Terminal) Units
那么哪一些非公共安全市场成长比较快呢？
我们认为交通运输行业将会有超过２０％的五年复合增长。交通运输行业是ＴＥＴＲＡ的第二大市场。在过去３到４年时间里，ＴＥＴＲＡ在地铁和机场领域取得了极大成功，在这些项目中，终端采购数量在１００到６０００台之间。

12. Utilities Shipments are set to double over the forecast period.
Oil & Gas – Puguang Gas Field, Sinopec Oilfield, YPF SA oil, Saudi Aramco, KNPC.
Mining –.Barrack Gold, Rio Tinto. RWE Power Germany
Energy – Kepco, SK Energy, CLP, CFE Mexico, EDF France, E-On Finland, QTEL Qatar, Sibneft and Transneft Russia, Endesa, Munich Utilities.
Ports and Shipbuilding – Suez Canal, Rotterdam Harbour, Samsung Korea.
In the utilities market, TETRA device shipments are set to double over the forecast period. Currently the main areas of growth are in oil and gas where ATEX radios are particularly effective, Mining, and ports and shipbuilding. What we have also seen is a number of Energy compnaies either migrating from analogue or cellular technologies to TETRA, as they have similar security and response requirements as pss organisations. Typical applications across these markets are crisis response, SCADA, remote monitoring, failure detection, meter reading and usage reports.If we look at the list of cmpanies listed we can see that many of the leading organisations within these markets are using TETRA. With the expected move towards smart grids, TETRA is set to play a significant part.
在公用事业领域，　ＴＥＴＲＡ终端出货量在２０１３年比2008年增加翻倍。现在主要的增长来自于石油石化天然气领域。另外采矿，港口和造船业也会有很大的增长。
我们同时看到一些能源和电力公司也从模拟系统或者蜂窝系统转换到了ＴＥＴＲＡ，同公共安全领域相似，这些能源和电力公司对保密性和及时响应有较大的需求。
在这些市场上，典型的应用是应急响应，数据采集，远程控制和远程抄表，失效检测，等等。
能源和电力部门的领先公司和组织都在用ＴＥＴＲＡ，如果智能电网得到越来越多的应用，ＴＥＴＲＡ更会在未来的电力系统中扮演重要的角色。

13. Business & Industrial
Shipments are set to triple over the forecast period.
Business - Bombardier, Krupp, BMW, Volvo, Allianz.
PAMR – Zeon Digital in Australia, Airwave New Zealand, T.On Korea, JustTop China, Chuchubi Caribbean.
Municipalities –Bordeaux, Lyon, Turin, Reims, Madrid, Cape Town, Barcelona, Dubai.
The business and industrial markets are probably the hardest to track.　It is also large market made up of numebrous small networks. Consequently, announcements do not get the same level of publicity as in other markets. Finally, it is also one of the market where resiistance to migration has been strongest, as anlaogu econtinues to meet the const beefit trade off for many users. What we have seen is that again there are a nuber of high profile business that are migrating to TETRa as prices have fallen. Although not outlined specifically, the TETRA market is now starting to cater for organisations such as hotels, shopping centres, schools and universities. This is where much fo the growth will coem from in the future.
Two market where we have seen a lot of recent activity is the PAMr or public access netowrks and municipalities. The first follows a similar model to a cellular network, where users subscribe t access the network. Over the last two years we have seen two very large PAMR networks in Korea and China, with the recent growth in Australia and New Zealand also coming form thisbuinsess model. What is good about this service, is that in the future it can be tighty integrated with PoC to offer an interoperable solutio with the est of both worlds.
For municipalities is another interesting area, where city officials have decided to rollout tetra to support public works and transport organisations under their duristiction.. This is a market we expect to continue growing voer the next 5 years.
普通商业和工业领域比较难以跟踪，普通商业和工业领域由很多小网组成，市场比较分散。因此ＴＥＴＲＡ在这个领域的应用不会像其他领域一样引人注目。另外，这个领域也是模拟向数字转换阻力最大的一个领域之一。
我们注意到，由于价格下降，很多定位比较高的企业正在从模拟转移到ＴＥＴＲＡ上来，我们甚至看到一些酒店，购物中心，大学开始使用ＴＥＴＲＡ。我们希望将来这些领域将会取得很快的成长。
共网和政务网是现在比较火的两个领域。共网和移动蜂窝通信的模式相似。这两年，中国和韩国建立并运行了两个非常庞大的共网，澳大利亚和新西兰也会按这个模式建立网络。共网的好处是，在未来它会和ＰＯＣ紧密地结合起来，利用两者的优点，提供互操作的完整方案。
政务网是另外一个有趣的领域，城市的管理者会部署ＴＥＴＲＡ网络以支持和监管各项公共事业。这个领域在今后５年内会持续增长。

14. TETRA in China - PSS
TETRA is already widely used in PSS and Military market in China. PSS Market will grow with 40% CAGR growth rate from 2008 to 2013
PSS – Police Station in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Chengdu, Tianjin; Beijing General Station Exit and Entry Frontier Inspection , Hongkong Police
Military – Chinese Airforce, North China Sea Fleet, LanZhou Military Area
Would be even better if we could focus this on one city, like Beijing to show how TETRA is successful. I think Munich is actually a very good example of the different users o fTETRA within one large city. In line with the nationwide BOS network, Munich is schedule to have a TETRA PSS network by However, there are already TETRA networks supporting the utilities copanies, public transport, munich municpalities, munich sports stadium, munich airport and even the BMW factory which is located relatively near to munich in Digolfing.
ＴＥＴＲＡ在中国的公共安全领域和军事领域应用比较广泛，估计从２００８年到２０１３年会有４０％的复合增长率。

15. TETRA in China - Transport
Currently the second largest market for TETRA radios.
25% CAGR growth across a number of areas.
Train/Metro - Beijing Metro, Hangzhou Metro, Xi’an Metro, Shanghai Metro, Guangzhou Metro, Shenzhen Metro, Nanjing Metro, WuHan Metro, QinHuangDao ShenYang Railway
Airports – Hong Kong Airport, Capital Airport, Guangzhou BaiYun Airport, Shuangliu Airport, Pudong Airport, JiNan Airport,
China will invest over 880 trillion RMB to build 79 lines of subway in 22 different cities in the next years. TETRA is the best choice for metro because of the reliable technology.
All of the main airports will speed up the analogue to digital process. At first, the TETRA network will be built up in main airports such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu.
Based on the TETRA IP technology, the main airports will be connected by the IP networks.
中国将会在接下来的几年内投资８８００亿人民币在２２个城市建设７９条地铁线路。因为ＴＥＴＲＡ系统的可靠性和数据功能，它地铁项目最好的集群通信选择。
所有的机场都在加快模拟转数字的脚步，ＴＥＴＲＡ系统会在全国主要的机场，首都机场，虹桥机场，浦东机场，白云机场，双流机场建立起来，基于ＩＰ技术，以后可能会建立一套覆盖全国主要机场的ＴＥＴＲＡ系统。

16. TETRA in China - Utilities
Shipments with 18% CAGR growth rate from 2008 to 2013.
Oil & Gas – PuGuang Gas Field, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Company
Mining – Ha’erwusu Open Pit Mine
Energy – CLP, LianYunGang Nuclear Power Station
Port - Shanghai YangShan Harbor, Xiamen Harbor, YanTian Harbor and Harbors in Western Shenzhen, Dalian Harbor, Hangzhou Harbor
TETRA在公用事业领域会取得18%的复合增长。

17. TETRA in China - Business & Industrial
Shipments with 23% CAGR growth rate from 2008 to 2013.
Business – Chengdu Xianfeng
PAMR – Beijing JustTop
Municipalities – Beijing General Station Exit and Entry Frontier Inspection, Shanghai Government Radio Network, Chengdu Information Office, Wuhan Government Network, Qindao Government, Tianjin Government

18. Market Drivers for TETRA in China
Manufacturers Speed Up the Localization Steps
More and More Local Companies Involved in TETRA Field.
Frequency Resource: 800Mhz with 600 channels, 350MHz with 560 channels.
The Demonstration Effects of Olympic TETRA Network.
The Awareness of Emergency Communication After Earthquake
Adequate Local Governments Budgets on PSS Market.
International companies localization: International companies cooperate with local companies to design and produce TETRA systems and terminals for local customers. Motorola set up a software design center in Chengdu with over 400 employees. Motorola cooperate with Guangzhou Haige to develop the metro market. Sepura cooperate with Tianjin 712 and Hisense to produce TETRA terminals. The localized production will lower the cost and fit the local market needs.
Local companies involved in TETRA field: Some of them have their own TETRA products. Tianjin 712 launced TETRA terminals with SRT’s technology. HaErBin university cooperate with Shenzhen HaDaXun produce the TETRA terminasl. HYT, QinDao Hisense and TCB 712 have their own designed TETRA terminals. HYT cooperate with EADS to develop TETRA products.　Other companies try to customized the products and services to local customers based on international companies’ products. That will speed up the TETRA adoption in China. We see more and more contracts signed by the distributors who can provided the customized software for customers.
Government allocate the 800Mhz for non-PSS trunking systems. 350Mhz for PSS trunking system. Enough frequency resource is a driver for TETRA.
The demonstration effects of Olympic TETRA network, more and more organizations and people know TETRA.
Emergency communication awareness after the earthquake.
国际集群通信领域的巨头在加快本土化的步伐，一些跨国公司在和国内公司合作研发和生产适合本地用户需求的产品，　作为行业领导者，Ｍｏｔｏｒｏｌａ和广州海格合作开发地铁市场，并在成都建立了一只４００多人的集群通信软件开发队伍。Ｓｅｐｕｒａ与天津７１２和海信合作生产ＴＥＴＲＡ终端。本地化一方面可以降低生产成本，另外一方面可以更适应本地市场的需要。
另外，越来越多的本土厂家进入到ＴＥＴＲＡ领域，有自主研发ＴＥＴＲＡ终端的，有与国外公司研发生产的，有依托国外大厂资源做系统集成的。比如天津７１２与ＳＲＴ的ＴＥＴＲＡ终端，哈尔滨工业大学研制的ＴＥＴＲＡ终端，青岛海信的ＴＥＴＲＡ终端。ＨＹＴ与ＥＡＤＳ的合作，东方通信和ｍｏｔｏｒｏｌａ的合作等等。系统集成也是一种消化吸收国外先进技术的方法，国内一些公司基于国际巨头设备所进行的二次开发就很有特色，适合中国国情，也加速了ＴＥＴＲＡ在中国市场的发展。
中国分配了有两个集群通信频段，　８００Ｍｈｚ和３５０Ｍｈｚ的，８００Ｍｈｚ有６００对频点，３５０Ｍｈｚ有５６０对频点，这些频率资源保证了ＴＥＴＲＡ在中国的发展。
中国奥运会的巨大成功也和ＴＥＴＲＡ网络的强大支持分不开。
另外地震也显露出我国在应急通信领域内的缺失，也让人们认识到应急通信的重要性。

19. Market Inhibitors for TETRA in China
Too Expensive to Afford
Replacement Rate
No Local Infrastructure Providers
Role of the Government
Chinese Grey Market
Initial Problems with TETRA
Lack Economies of Scale
ASPs: China customers are more price sensitive. The price delta between analogue and TETRA was still significant for many non-PSS organisations to consider migration. Especially the customer in business, logistic, factory, hotel. In western China poor medium and small cities, the PSS customers also prefer the low cost solution. TETRA is too expensive to afford. The roll out cost is expensive.
Replacement rates: The analogue market is traditionally voice-centric. The key benefit and sustainability of analogue LMR is instantaneous voice on a reliable network. In many cases analogue has adequately met this demand. The existing analogue system met the customer dispatch requirements well. The are no attractive functions for customer to replace their existing analogue systems.Normally the life cycle of analogue system is　about 10 years. There have been many new analogue contracts in China in 2008/09. So many existing analogue users have been slow to migrate.
No local infrastructure provider: There are so many local suppliers provide analogue mobile radio system and terminals but limited TETRA suppliers.
The participation of local suppliers can decrease the price and speed up the digital process. Local suppliers can not catch up the international giants in TETRA technology in a short time. The analogue products are still cash cow for the manufacturers. So the best strategy for local suppliers is: 1. delay the process of digital conversion. 2. develop TETRA system and terminals, we see some manufacturers develop their own TETRA terminals or cooperate with foreign companies to develop the customized solution and system integration, the next step will be TETRA systems development; 3. Build up china own digital mobile radio standard, the first step is the conventional digital mobile radio standard, then the digital trunking standard.
Role of the Government: Hesitated to release digital conversion time table. It is difficult for government release a compulsory analogue digital conversion directive in mobile radio industry. The government also encourage the development of Chinese local standard.
Chinese grey market: The unlicensed mobile radio also interfere the non-PSS customers to make decision. These mobile radio has big transmitting power up to 2W ~ 5W. The coverage area is far beyond the 0.5W limitation.
Contract Delays: Customers waiting on DMR/DPMR and/or chinese standard???
Initial Problems of TETRA: TETRA only open the air interface standard. The internal interface is not opened for different suppliers. Different systems from different manufacturer can not interoperate. Trunking system beyond the requirement of non-PSS customers. Too complicated to construct and maintenance the network.
Lack Economies of Scale; Even there are so many TETRA contracts, the customer base is still limited. Every customer has their own demands and requirements. That means every network is customized. The PAMR will use many base stations and terminals. But because of the competition, the customer bargain power is great. In order to get the projects, the supplier will cut down their quotation.
ＡＳＰ：中国的非公共安全用户成本敏感，ＴＥＴＲＡ对非公共安全用户来说，价格太高了。特别是对普通商业，物流，工厂，酒店等市场的用户来说，模拟对讲机就够用了。在中西部地区，公安部门等公共安全用户出于预算的考虑，也不会选择ＴＥＴＲＡ。
替换率：通常，模拟系统的生命周期有十年以上。在最近几年，我们依然可以看到中国各地各行业都有大量模拟集群系统上马。
缺少本土的系统供应商：中国有众多的模拟系统设备供应商但却没有ＴＥＴＲＡ系统设备供应商。由于ＴＥＴＲＡ只公开了空中接口部分的协议，其它内部借口标准并不公开，所以中国企业开发自己的ＴＥＴＲＡ系统难度比较大，投入也会比较大。中国公司的策略应该是先开发终端，再开发系统设备，先做系统集成，二次开发，再做系统底层研发。
政府的角色：考虑到中国本土企业和市场的现状，政府并没有指定模拟转数字的时间表，对政府来说，指定一个强制执行的转换指令是非常困难的。
中国灰色市场：中国的灰色数字对讲市场也影响了非公共安全客户的购买决策。通常，中国开放４００ＭＨｚ的频率作为民用频率，规定用户要申报，厂家要进行型号核准，对讲机发射功率要小于等于0.5ｗ，但实际上灰色市场的对讲机功率都超标。
ＴＥＴＲＡ本来的原因：ＴＥＴＲＡ只公开了空中接口标准，内部的接口只向部分厂商公开，来自于不同厂商的不同的系统不能互操作。另外建网成本和维护成本都比较高。系统也比较复杂。很多多余的功能造成使用困难。
缺少规模经济：虽然ＴＥＴＲＡ的合同数量也蛮多，但除非是大型的像正通网这样的共网，整个网络的设备采购数量和终端采购数量还是比较有限。每一个专网用户都有自己的特殊要求，这样每个专网从设计，规划，软件开发到部署都需要定制，这样缺乏规模经济效应。而像正通网这样的大网，由于有多家供应商的竞争，用户有较强的议价能力，供应商不得不降低报价。

20. Threat of DMR/DPMR to TETRA in China
Local development: International companies have hesitated to launch DMR/DPMR trunking systems. Local companies are developing solutions and can now compete on an even footing for the first time.
Technology: DMR/DPMR is less complicated than TETRA. It is possible for local suppliers to exceed multinationals in DMR/DPMR area.
Price: DMR/DPMR has a significant price advantage over TETRA, which will be increased by presence of local DMR/DPMR manufacturers.
Chinese networks: Large installed base of small, conventional PMR networks. DMR/DPMR is better suited to meet non-PSS market’s needs.
Forecast: With the limited base number, the DMR will achieve significant growth rate in PMR market in next 5 years. DMR even will take some PSS market of TETRA.
China only approved TETRA, iDEN, GOTA and GT800 as the Chinese trunking standards. The DMR/DPMR and Chinese mobile radio standards are approved as the conventional mobile radio standards at this time. International promote the DMR/DPMR trunking function carefully because the DMR/DPMR will definitely affect the market of TETRA. This gives China suppliers time to develop DMR/DPMR or even the Chinese Digital mobile radio standard.
With local suppliers involvement, the DMR/DPMR system and terminals price will go down. The lower price will encourage the customer to choose DMR/DPMR.
DMR/DPMR will definitely take non-PSS markets of TETRA in middle term and long term. DMR/DPMR will also take some PSS market in medium and small cities, or even the district police station in big cities.
TETRA in China have been extremely expensive and difficult to implement. Many customers delay to make decisions and wait the DMR/DPMR or even Chinese digital mobile radio standard products.
Forecast: With the limited base number, the DMR will achieve significant growth rate in PMR market. The growth rate in the next years will be more than 50%. The growth rate of DMR will be greater than TETRA. Even the growth rate is high, the DMR is still at the early stage of adoption. But IMS believe 5 years later, DMR market will be large enough to compare with TETRA. DMR will be widely used in government emergency, harbor, airport, oil, chemical, fire protection and forestry. DMR even will take some PSS market of TETRA. DPMR’s future is not clear yet. The DPMR is hard to convince the analogue customer in common business to replace If the DPMR price is not competitive. The DPMR also lacks the supports of local manufacturers.
Many industry insiders think the DMR/DPMR has a good future than TETRA, especially in China.
On the other hand, DMR/DPMR’s conventional features are well met the needs of most of the customers. The DMR/DPMR also has the digital service such as the SMS, GPS, the security features and the trunking features.
In short term, the TETRA will be affected by the analogue technology.
In the middle and long term, the TETRA will be affected by the DMR/PMR.
中国批准ＴＥＴＲＡ，iDEN, GOTA和ＧＴ８００作为中国集群通信标准，ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ和中国数字对讲标准现在还是作为常规对讲标准来推广。
DMR是最近两年才兴起的数字常规对讲机标准，DMR/DPMR的常规对讲功能已经可以很好的满足大多数客户的调度需要，除了提供更清晰的话音，DMR/DPMR同样可以提供数据服务，比如短消息，GPS，集群功能等，保密性也比较好。
国际巨头在推广ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ时比较谨慎，因为ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ确实会在中长期影响到ＴＥＴＲＡ的市场。国际巨头的谨慎反倒给了中国供应商研发ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ和中国数字对讲机标准的时间。另外，和ＴＥＴＲＡ相比，　ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ的技术难度要低很多，而且ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ的发展也就两三年的时间，中国厂商和国外厂商基本上处于同一个起跑线上，这给中国厂商提供了一个难得的追赶国际同行的机会。
一些中国厂商积极的投入到ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ的终端和芯片的开发中来，随着本土厂商的跟进，ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ终端的价格会很快下降，价格的下降会吸引客户选择ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ。
从用户的角度来看，中国有相当多的小网，专用网。而大网，共网反而比较少，ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ非常适合这些小网非公共安全市场的需要，甚至吸引公共安全用户的目光。
预测：由于ＤＭＲ／ＤＰＭＲ在中国才刚刚开始，基数比较少，所以增长速度非常快。在接下来几年里，ＤＭＲ会在小型专网领域内取得显著的增长，增长速度会在５０％以上，ＤＭＲ的增长速度会比ＴＥＴＲＡ要快。虽然增长速度快，但ＤＭＲ还处于早期的客户培育阶段。我们相信五年后，ＤＭＲ市场会成为可以与ＴＥＴＲＡ相提并论的市场。ＤＭＲ会在政府应急，港口，机场，石油石化，化工，消防和林业等领域内得到广泛的应用，ＤＭＲ甚至会在传统属于ＴＥＴＲＡ的公共安全领域中开花结果。
DPMR市场的未来还不是很明朗，如果DPMR将目标市场定位于普通商业用户的话，如果DPMR的价格不能和模拟常规对讲系统差不多，用户并没有太大的兴趣切换到DPMR上来。DPMR在中国也缺乏终端厂商的支持。
中国规定数字对讲机的频率范围是：信息产业部确定的数字对讲机射频指标是适用于１３７～１６７ＭＨｚ、４０３～４２５．ＭＨｚ和９１５～ ９１７ＭＨｚ等三个频段以及采用１２．５ｋＨｚ和６．２５ｋＨｚ两种信道间隔，前者为ＴＤＭＡ ２时隙，后者为ＦＤＭＡ（单路），所以比较灵活。

21. Threat of China Standard to TETRA
GOTA and GT800 Can’t Compete with TETRA in Truking Area
Less Contracts in China than TETRA
Frequency Resource
Limited Supplier
Leading Local Companies Eager to Build Up Chinese Digital Mobile Radio Standard
Conventional Standard
Chinese Intellectual Property
Targeted for PMR Network, directly compete with DMR
Take low end market of TETRA in long term
GOTA, GT800, iDEN and TETRA are four Chinese trunking standard.
But GOTA and GT800 implemented not so well. The contracts is less than TETRA. It is said that Huawei has already abandon GT800.
GOTA is based on CDMA but need more the frequency resource.
Chinese leading mobile radio companies is developing Chinese conventional digital mobile radio standard.
GOTA和GT800发展的不如TETRA好，GOTA和GT800都是中国标准，在国外市场应用少，合同数量少，来自于CDMA和GSM的GOTA和GT800占用频率资源比较多，另外这两个标准只有两家公司提供系统设备，参与的厂商不多。
中国领先的厂商专注于常规对讲机标准，由六家领先企业和组织牵头，合作建立自己的知识产权，中国常规对讲机标准瞄准专业通信市场，直接和DMR竞争，长期来看，中国常规对讲机标准会有一席之地，会抢夺一部分TETRA的低端市场。

22. What is the Future for TETRA?
Overall of TETRA Market
What is the Future for TETRA?

23. Current TETRA/TEDS review
So What can TEDS offer the LMR market?
TEDS acting as a medium term solution
Old technology about 10 years
low data rates, can’t support Video and
no clear evolutionary path
operators and manufacturers alike are very slow to invest
Little benefits switching from MLSD to TEDS
Norway PSS network is the breakthrough for TEDS
TEDS Equipment Development
TEDS技术提出已经有十年的时间，数据率比较低，不能传输视频和 ，没有清晰的技术演化路径，从MLSD 转化到TEDS客户得到的好处比较少，运营商和厂商都不愿意投入TEDS上来，

24. TEDS – Current Market Situation
Market Drivers
Market Inhibitors
Capable of much higher data speeds.
Requires much higher bandwidth
and set up costs.
Network operators interested in
driving revenue through data.
Still only a “nice to have”
for many end-users.
Compatible infrastructure already
developed.
A need to develop compatible terminals.
Included as part of nationwide
tenders e.g. Norway
Spectrum availability is an issue in EU. Perceived benefit/cost is not suitable in emerging regions.
TEDS的驱动力和阻碍：
TEDS可以存载更高的数据率，但更高的数据率意味着更高的带宽需求和建设成本；
运营商希望通过数据业务来获得新的利润点，但这些数据业务能带给用户什么价值？目前来看，对多数用户来说，数据业务只是锦上添花的东西；
另外，具备兼容性的TEDS系统设备已经开发出来了， 但现在还需要有足够多的具备兼容性的终端供用户选择；
在挪威，TEDS已经作为全国范围大网的一部份得到应用，但频谱资源在欧盟仍然是重要的问题，在新兴国家，投入产出低；
实际上，从技术上来讲，在TETRA领域，TEDS是仅有的可以保证可靠性，安全性和保密性的数据通讯技术，但运营商却已经开始试验其他的技术，比如3G， GPRS， WiMax等等，当然，这些技术并不适合应急通信任务优先级的要求。
In reality TEDS is currently the only way to ensure reliable, secure, prioritised data comms.
Operators are already working with other technologies, such as WiMAX, 3G and GPRS - non mission critical.

25. How does it compare against some of the other viable options out there?

26. The Future of TETRA TETRA III and TETRA BB
This would make TEDS a viable investment in the medium term
TETRA III and TETRA BB is long term evolutionary path for the TETRA
TETRA III and TETRA BB is new wave of innovation for sustainability
Encourage the uptake and demand of high speed data within the PSS industry
Provides network operators with a return on their investment
TEDS is now an old technology with low data rates and no clear evolutionary path. Consequently, operators and manufacturers alike are very slow to invest in this technology.
A new concept called TETRA III or TETRA BB has emerged, the aim of which being to establish a long term evolutionary path for the TETRA industry, with TEDS acting as a medium term solution. The emergence of TETRA III or TETRA BB has complicated things further.
This would serve a number of purposes:
• This would make TEDS a viable investment in the medium term.
• It would encourage the uptake and demand of high speed data within the PSS industry.
• It provides network operators with a return on their investment and confidence in a clear
migratory path.
• It will also create a new wave of innovation in the industry which is essential for sustainability.
• It also introduces barriers to potential competition from commercial solutions, by introducing
standardisation.
This will actually delay the offering and uptake of TEDS equipment as organizations delay decisions on the technology. However, if a clear migratory
path is determined along with a harmonized spectrum plan in Europe and elsewhere, it could also accelerate uptake in the medium to long term.
以现在的观点来看，TEDS是一个比较老的技术，数据率不高，没有清晰的演化路径。所以，过去多年来，运营商和厂商都对TEDS投入很谨慎。
TETRA III 和 TETRA BB是新提出的概念，目标是：
鼓励公共安全领域内高速数据业务的引入和需求，
将TEDS作为一个切实可行的中期的方案，
为TETRA行业建立一个长期的演化路径，
给网络运营商提供一个获得收益的模式并坚定运营商对演化路径的信心，
TETRA III 和 TETRA BB的提出会为TETRA行业提供一个创新的方向，
另外通过将TETRA III 和 TETRA BB标准化，可以建立壁垒，抵抗其他商业解决方案的竞争
同时，TETRA III or TETRA BB 的提出使事情变得复杂，在短期内会延迟公司对TEDS技术的应用决策，
但长期来看，一个清晰的演化路径，和谐的频率规划会加速高速数据业务在TETRA中的应用。

27. Overview of TETRA Market
Thank You Patrick Connolly Mobile Radio Research Director “The World Market For TETRA Terminals Edition”