1. Electricity Deregulation and the California Energy Crisis Electricity and energy What happened in California? Utility deregulation in NE and Maine Future trends, including renewables The big picture

2. What is electricity? Electricity is a naturally occurring physical force created by the interaction of negatively and positively charged particles. –Benjamin Franklin, 1752 (electricity transmitted from lightning to iron spike to key) –Michael Faraday, 1831 (generated electricity by rotating magnets around a coil of wires) –Thomas Edison, 1882 (world’s first electricity-generating plant, NY)

3. Electricity Flow, 1999 (Quadrillion Btu)

4. Consumer Prices, 1999

5. Electricity Net Generation by Source, 1999

6. California Utility Generation by Primary Energy Source, 1998

7. Electricity Net Generation at Electric Utilities

9. Vertically Integrated Utility

11. Why Deregulate? ANSWER: Inefficient market (move from monopoly to market and choice)

12. CALIFORNIA DEREGULATION Then Now Utilities owned generating plants, prices regulated Utilities owned transmission lines Utilities own distribution systems to homes and businesses Plants sold to private companies. Prices set at auction by CA Power Exchange. Transmission lines, grids in Independent System Operator (np) Utilities still own distribution systems

13. California Energy Crisis Wholesale Electricity Costs 1999$7.4 billion 2000$27 billion 2001(6mo)>$20 billion –CA now has long-term contracts ( peak purchase )

14. Who are the Players? Energy producers (natural gas, nuclear, coal, other) Marketers/Traders (buy-sell energy and/or buy-sell electricity) Power Plants (Utilities and others) Transmission(Utilities, ISOs, RTOs) Distribution (Utilities to users) Regulators (State and Federal)

15. Who to blame? Generating capacity tight; few non-utility owners; few new plants Long–term contracts not allowed; spot purchases required Demand increased 25%; supply increased 6% in 10 yrs Transmission lines/infrastructure constraints Natural gas prices much higher than normal California electricity rates frozen (at utilities’ request); couldn’t pass price increases on to consumers Generators and fuel suppliers were reluctant to sell to bankrupt utilities Poor sight by FERC, state regulators

18. UK Electricity Deregulation

19. New England Utilities Nine plants built since 1998. 30 plants under construction. Demand at a steady pace. Increased dependence on natural gas. Utilities use long term contracts (20% spot) NE imports from other states (Canada, also)

20. New Approach to Deregulation Electricity is a special commodity Better wholesale market design (less spot market use) Create real-time pricing for consumers Provide transparency, efficiency, choice Add co-generating capacity/rethink size Think distributed generation/”off grid” Improve transmission infrastructure Use gas storage to moderate volatility Re-evaluate regulatory system Use life-cycle analyses Anticipate surprises

21. New Utility Generating Units by year of entry into service 1,000 750 500 250 0 1994199519961997199819992000 1,250 1993 100 75 50 25 0 125 Number of new units Maximum new size, MW Sources: US Energy Information Administration; Rocky Mountain Institute

22. Natural Gas Overview

24. Power Shopping A variety of distributed-generation technologies are available or under development. Costs of producing power can vary widely, depending on location, size, use and fuel prices, but here are estimates: Technology Description Cost* Photovoltaics (solar panels) Converts sun lights into electricity 22-40 cents Wind turbines Wind blades power electricity-producing turbines 4-28 cents Diesel generators Similar to truck engines, also run on natural gas 7-12 cents Microturbine Scaled-down jet engines that run on natural gas, methane or waste gases 7-10 cents Fuel cells Chemical reaction produces electricity and water No commercial production * Per kilowatt-hour, without subsidies. For comparison, the average U.S. retail electricity price earlier this year 6.9 cents per kwh. Source: Department of Energy; National Renewable Energy Laboratory; American Wind Energy Association; manufacturers From WSJ, Sept 17, 2001 Think Small by Robert Gavin

30. Marketing Renewables Life cycle analysis/resource equity –Goal of true cost of all energy sources –Level playing field Co-generation –How/should/could renewables integrate with fossil fuels –Production, storage, utilization issues –Scale issues (distributed energy) Energy price and supply –Conservation, efficiency, volatility, reliability, technology –BP(solar), Shell(hydrogen, geothermal), Texaco(fuel cells) –Choice, diversity

31. Food for Thought 40% of world not on grid (> 2 billion people ) Increased energy demand in China ( 5-8%/yr ) 20,000 gas wells drilled in US last 12 mos; deliverability increased by 4% What happens when the world economy recovers?Demand>supply

32. World Consumption of End-Use Fuels, % Coal Renewables Heat Electricity Gas Oil 1997 2020 Forecast 9,117 Mtoe* 11 1 4 17 18 49 8 2 3 20 18 49 Source: International Energy Agency 5,808 Mtoe * Million tonnes of oil equivalent