1. 1 COSYSMO 3.0: Future Research Directions Jared Fortune University of Southern California 2009 COCOMO Forum Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2. Future Research Directions COSYSMO 2.0 identified as area for future research by affiliates at 2006 Workshop –Three years later, we have a model! What are the next topics for research? Session goals: –Identification –Prioritization –Limitations (data availability, access, etc.) 2

3. (Some) Future Areas of Research Tailoring COSYSMO 2.0 to individual organizations Exploring a range of weights for the reuse categories Identifying reuse opportunities and mismatches Updated data collection effort Quantifying the effect of schedule Harmonizing across software and systems engineering Best practice guidance 3

4. COSYSMO 2.0 Calibration COSYSMO 2.0 developed with project data from a large, diversified systems engineering organization –Model currently assumes same calibration factor as COSYSMO –Published results limited to set of diverse projects, but all from a single organization Should a planned data collection effort be pursed? –Or fall back to a “wait and see” approach? –Is an industry calibration/validation valuable? Additional data can likely improve model applicability –Does data exist? –When (if ever) will it be available? 4

5. COSYSMO 2.0 Reuse Category Ranges COSYSMO 2.0 reuse category weights are point estimates –Derived from Delphi survey –Based on standard systems engineering activities, average effort across phases, and nominal projects –Unique organizational and project factors may influence Should weight ranges be explored? –Or are point-estimates “good enough”? Additional data can likely improve model usability –Range values will likely require additional Delphi surveys at future workshops –May be able to incorporate effect of reuse strategies as well 5

6. Reuse in Expert COSYSMO Expert COSYSMO is a heuristic risk assessment extension to COSYSMO –Led by Dr. Ray Madachy –Identifies model input “mismatches”, offers guidance Should reuse be incorporated into the tool? –Or complete a baseline version of tool first without reuse? Reuse heuristics/mismatches could improve usability –Development of heuristics/mismatches would require expert judgment exercises (similar to Expert COSYSMO exercises) –Results may help support/justify reuse decisions 6

7. Updated COSYSMO Data Collection COSYSMO calibration data set approaching 5 years old –Many organizations have in-house versions with additional data Should a 2 nd formal data collection effort be pursued? –Or are affiliates more concerned with local calibrations? –If new collection effort is too difficult, the projects from the calibration data could be revisited for COSYSMO 2.0 data 7

8. COSYSMO Schedule Estimation COSYSMO does not estimate schedule (for systems engineering activities) –Based on standard level of effort for activities across each phase –Unique organizational and project factors may influence –Independently being addressed by Wang and Gaffney Should formal schedule extension be explored? –Or are other tools/expert judgment sufficient? 8

9. Systems and Software Harmonization Incorporate COCOMO and COSYSMO into a single tool (or common estimation scope) –Previous/on-going work by Gan Wang and Garry Roedler –Avoid using different models or estimation overlap Should harmonization effort be made a higher priority? –Or is current research pace acceptable? 9

10. COSYSMO Best Practice Guidance Enable the consistent application of COSYSMO across organizations –Identify best practices and usage heuristics –Previous/on-going work by Gan Wang and Garry Roedler Should “guidance” effort be made a higher priority? –Or is current research pace acceptable? 10