1. Some Experience With COSYSMOR At Lockheed Martin
John Gaffney
Lockheed Martin Systems & Software Resource Center (SSRC)
Center for Process Improvement Excellence (CPIE)
October 29, 2008
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Agenda
What Is COSYSMOR ?
Some Experience With COSYSMOR
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3. COSYSMOR or COSYSMO Risk and Reuse
COSYSMOR evolved from the USC Academic COSYSMO systems engineering estimation model/tool (Dr. Ricardo Valerdi) and LMCO implemented these enhancements in a tool, COSYSMOR, or COSYSMO Risk
COSYSMOR is available on request
It has been distributed to some organizations outside of Lockheed Martin already
A major driver for the development of COSYSMOR was to get away from “single point” cost estimates in order to better recognize the uncertainty associated with effort, schedule, and cost estimates
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4. Additional Functions Provided By COSYSMOR
COSYSMOR provides four major additional functions beyond those provided by Academic COSYSMO:
Estimation of Cost/Effort and Schedule Uncertainties/Risk and Confidence: Provides quantification of the impacts of uncertainties in the values of key model parameter values. Provides multiple cost and schedule values with associated probabilities.
Risk=Prob [Actual Effort Will Be >Estimated Effort]
Confidence=100%-Risk
Representation of Multiple Types of Size Drivers: Provides for entering counts of: new, modified, reused, and deleted types for each of the four size driver categories.
Labor Scheduling: Provides the spread of systems engineering labor for the five systems engineering activities and across four the development phases (time).
Labor Allocation: Provides for the user to select the percentage allocations of the twenty activity/phase pairs or effort elements.
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5. What Lockheed Martin Has Been Doing
Been calibrating COSYSMOR in various organizations and applying it in several projects
Have also developed an analogous model/tool for software resource estimation, COCOMOR
We are quite interested in harmonizing the estimation of systems engineering effort and software engineering effort
We have also developed a tailored version of COSYMOR, COSYSMOR-A for avionics
This illustrates the general utility of this model/tool form
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COSYSMOR-A
COSYSMOR-A stands for COSYSMOR for Avionics
COSYSMOR-A is a tailored version of COSYSMOR, to produce resource (effort) estimates for new avionics systems and upgrades produced by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company Mission Systems and Avionics
The tailoring included changes in two of the size drivers and two of the cost drivers (of COSYSMO/COSYSMOR):
Size Drivers: # of Hardware Components and # of Software Functions replace # of Algorithms and # of Operational Scenarios in COSYSMO/R, respectively
Cost Drivers: Lab System Integration and Test Complexity and Flight Test Complexity replace Migration Complexity and Multisite Coordination in COSYSMO/R, respectively
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COSYSMOR Data Entry-1
Three-point data entry for size and cost drivers.
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COSYSMOR Data Entry-2
You indicate the uncertainty in size driver and cost driver values by entering Low, Likely and High values for each to indicate your assessment of the distribution for the easy, nominal and difficult size driver counts
If you don’t believe that there is a range, but rather, there is the value, then you enter the same values for Low, Likely and High
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COSYSMOR Data Entry-3
A Program User enters the percents of Modified, Reused and Deleted for each of the four size drivers; the tool computes the percent of New
These percents are taken to apply to the Easy, Nominal and Difficult values for each of the four types of size drivers
A Program User also enters the Relative Cost (relative to New) for the Modified, Reused and Deleted counts
Note: If the Program User wants to designate different sets of percents and relative costs for Easy, Nominal and Difficult, then he will have to go the Reuse page of COSYSMOR to enter these values.
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COSYSMOR Data Entry-4
An Administrative User enters the Low, Likely and High values for A, the Unit Effort Constant, and E, the Exponent, in the COSYSMOR model:
K=A*SE* Di
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Some COSYSMOR Outputs
Principal outputs of the COSYSMOR tool are:
Equivalent Size Risk
Cost Driver Product Risk
Systems Engineering Person Hours Risk
Systems Engineering Person Hours Overrun Risk
Percent of Total Systems Engineering Effort By Process Activity and By Phase
Systems Engineering Person Hours Vs. Month
Systems Engineering Schedule Risk
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Systems Engineering Person Hours Risk
Use this Graph to help understand labor (and cost) exposure for your choice
of labor (say to be bid in a proposal). Example: The risk of exceeding labor hours is slightly less than 20%. Note: You might choose to present only the smooth curve fit rather than the discrete plot.
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Systems Engineering Person Hours Overrun Risk
This plot shows the overrun risk % for a target of of Systems Engineering Person Hours values. This plot is the tail of the Systems Engineering Person Hours Risk plot. Some persons might prefer to see this plot in which the “zero” value on the horizontal axis corresponds to the target value and the horizontal axis values are the (potential) overrun values relative to the target.
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Observations
Better management of uncertainty starts with recognizing its existence and in estimating cost/schedule risk
Use the risk information to make better management decisions during both business acquisition and program execution
Serve as a basis for discussion of alternatives within the project as well as with the customer
A key aspect of affordability
Relate cost/schedule risk to risk register as part of normal risk management process
Relate to potential program failure modes
Need to harmonize SE and SW estimation
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