1. Engineering the Planet What Compels us to do so?

2. The Cosmological Perspective

3. The Pathway to Insignificance

4. Three Choices

5. The 2010 Tag Cloud Global climate change, species extinction, oil depletion, world food crises, global inequity, environmental justice, depletion of mineral resources, sustainability, renewable energy solutions, Plug In electric cars, global economic meltdown, financial derivatives, too big to fail, yes we can, whatever … Global climate change, species extinction, oil depletion, world food crises, global inequity, environmental justice, depletion of mineral resources, sustainability, renewable energy solutions, Plug In electric cars, global economic meltdown, financial derivatives, too big to fail, yes we can, whatever … How did all we arrive at this point where sustainability is a buzz word reaction to using 1.4 Earth’s? How did all we arrive at this point where sustainability is a buzz word reaction to using 1.4 Earth’s?

6. Production and Consumption on the Century Timescale: The operational way that we got to the Tag Cloud

7. A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs. 2000) Industrial Output: 40 Marine Fish Catch: 35 CO 2 Emissions: 17 Total Energy Use: 16 Coal Production: 7 World Population: 4 No More Fish by 2100 at this rate of Consumption

8. Electricity Demand Scaling 1890 – 1955: D  P 1.6 1955 – 2005: D  P 3.5 (!) US Nameplate Electricity Gen: 1.4 TW World 4 +/- 0.5 TW (China Uncertainty) 2050 Estimate including improvements in electricity generating efficiency: 8- 12 TW Not enough Fossil Reserves to support this growth

9. But consumption needs to slow Earth isn’t big enough to accommodate factor 40 industrial growth for this century; Wisdom means avoiding this:

10. The WW2 Full Employment Machine 69,000 airplanes (PNW aluminum industry/Boeing/Bonneville Dam) 69,000 airplanes (PNW aluminum industry/Boeing/Bonneville Dam) 5,000 naval battleships 5,000 naval battleships 7 million aircraft bombs (4,000 bombs per day) 7 million aircraft bombs (4,000 bombs per day) 31 million artillery shells (18,000 shells per day) 31 million artillery shells (18,000 shells per day)

11. Path to Bubble Bursting Only if we have large demands can we expect large production. Therefore, it is important that in planning for the postwar period, we give adequate consideration to the need for ever-increasing consumption on the part of our people as one of the prime requisites for prosperity. (Robert Nathan 1944 - an economist). Only if we have large demands can we expect large production. Therefore, it is important that in planning for the postwar period, we give adequate consideration to the need for ever-increasing consumption on the part of our people as one of the prime requisites for prosperity. (Robert Nathan 1944 - an economist).

13. Consumption Waveforms The Second Industrial Revolution

14. Critical Question Can This Century also stand a 40 Fold increase in material output? Will the emerging world market of China promote this kind of growth in the same way the industrial revolution did? Only problem here is that the earth is actually finite

15. But how did we get here culturally/historically/philosophically???

16. Culture’s Relation With Dirt: Three Choices Sacred – The Aboriginal World View  tends to promote wisdom Re-usable  Lots of different cultures living in a small area  Island Approach  tends to promote conservation Land as Personal Property  Someone can own Earth Resources  Drives the planet to Market Capitalism  this is fine if you have a really, really, big planet.

17. Culture and Nature: Starting around 600 BC the Greeks developed this sense: All the world can be understood as an interaction between 4 primal elements: Air, Earth Fire and Water.

18. Inevitably Leads to This

19. Alternate Viewpoint Democritus (500 BC)  The Universe consists of atoms and the Void; all else is opinion and illusion Democritus (500 BC)  The Universe consists of atoms and the Void; all else is opinion and illusion Wow, no order  The Universe runs by itself  no Gods needed Wow, no order  The Universe runs by itself  no Gods needed This alternate viewpoint was not culturally acceptable to the strong Greek desire for logic and order and hence this “Quantum Mechanical” idea was essentially dismissed This alternate viewpoint was not culturally acceptable to the strong Greek desire for logic and order and hence this “Quantum Mechanical” idea was essentially dismissed

20. Science, Technology, Humanity  We are special (different than other animals)  We are uniquely positioned at the center of the Universe (reflects our “specialness”)  The Universe is ordered, logical and rational  With the application of Reason, humankind is unbounded  The Newtonian world shows us the mechanical Earth and it is precise

21. Continued  Life is a struggle; competition is natural; gradual change occurs (Darwin)  Science now certifies  Survival of the fittest and the engineering of society to protect that outcome (Spencer)  The notion of uncertainty, as a valid scientific concept, arises too late in this process

22. We Need To Return to this View

23. The Cosmological Perspective  Requires a component of morality based decision making – everything is connected  Requires an understanding that the Earth’s resources can’t be owned and should be shared equally among all its citizens  Requires a commitment to preserve your existence so that you have enough time to discover other civilizations which already have this commitment  Sustainability (CONSUME LESS) requires the proper individual/cultural relationship with dirt.

27. Why China is Such A Concern Factor 16 Growth (4 doubling times) in 35 years!

28. All Supply Chains can reach physical saturation limits

29. Solar: Harvesting a Vastly distributed Resource A Large Scalability Challenge

30. Time to Think of Big Projects

31. Thinking Big -Solar Sonoran Desert Project: 300,000 square km @ 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW 10% coverage yields 500,000 MW

32. Thinking Big - Wind Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing 1200 5 MW turbines: 180,000 MW

33. Thinking Real Big - Wind Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) @1 per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

34. Thinking Real Big – Aleutian Wind Wall TW wind power scale incident on the Archipelago (nearly constantly) (wind power density averages 600- 700 watts per sq. meter – twice as high as typical wind farm. Use this wind energy to produce Hydrogen (can annually fuel at least 100 million vehicles should they exist)

35. Summary Yes this is a big infrastructure challenge. Need to install 50,000 MW per year for 20-30 years. This is not physically impossible. Big infrastructure can be built if you put enough resources into it: The Interstate Highway System The Depression Era Federal Hydroelectric Projects (45% green) Going to the Moon in 10 years Think seriously about using Hydrogen as a proxy for transmission of electricity within the new smart grid No one technological solution (e.g. fusion) yet exists  need Network of regionally based alternative energy facilities

36. 2010 Realities The Obama Unit: (780 Billion dollars)  insufficient renewable energy infrastructure investment New (post 2006) domestic Natural gas discoveries are moving the market back towards fossils and away from renewables BAU depletes most planetary resources at the 90% level by 2030  Chinese Sledgehammer We are in a collective stupor on all of these issues; if we don’t prioritize the long term, then we will become stone aged in the short term.