1. Grand Overview 1. Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity eventually 2. Resource scarcity changes traditional economic models and puts us in new territory 3. That time is near for fossil fuels as our energy foundation 4. New solutions do exist – implementation takes leadership and the ability to think big 5. Supply chain dynamics need to be intergrated into energy policy

2. Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production Adam Smith – right up there with Aristotle!

3. 1942 Lecture I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.I do not think we will ever escape from the appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in which we have been madly turning for the last three centuries – the cage in which we landed ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which consumption has to be artificially stimulated in order to keep production going is a society founded on trash and waste and such a society is a house built upon sand.

4. Consumption with a Conscience

5. The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!

6. The Business As Usual Future – what’s the point – its time to grow up now JUST SAY NO TO THIS PATH

7. What Are the BAU Options? LNG development LNG development “Clean Coal” “Clean Coal” Fast Breeder Reactors Fast Breeder Reactors Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands) Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar sands) Fastest gateway to energy economy Fastest gateway to energy economy Leads to Growth of GDP Leads to Growth of GDP Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Accelerates Global CO 2 Deposition Reinforces BAU – mine the planet Reinforces BAU – mine the planet

8. Tar Sands http://www.protectowire.com/applications/profiles/electric_shovels.htmhttp://www.aapg.org/explorer/2005/05may/dinning.cfm

9. Oil Shale http://nandotimes.nandomedia.com/ips_rich_content/896-shale_rock.jpg http://geosurvey.state.co.us/Default.aspx?tabid=104

10. Breaking out of BAU  Consume less  Drive less  Plan ahead  Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure  Have long term governmental goals  Requires some component of morality based decision making  Requires leadership  Requires world cooperation Is this just too Damn Hard to Do?

11. But Many Options Now Exist Solar PV Solar PV Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Solar CSP; Solar Thermal Electric Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Wind (ON shore and Off Shore) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (cellulostic), hydrogen, hybrids) Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (cellulostic), hydrogen, hybrids) Biomass Co-Generation Biomass Co-Generation OTEC; Gulf Current OTEC; Gulf Current

12. CO 2 Mitigation Options http://www.netl.doe.gov

13. Distributed Generation as the New Power Grid

14. Barriers to Renewables High capital cost; long payback times High capital cost; long payback times Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on truly large scale projects NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes implementation difficult Technology uncertainty Technology uncertainty Electrical Grid limitations Electrical Grid limitations Possible Material Shortages Possible Material Shortages

15. Solar Pros and Cons Pros Resource is available CSP technology rapidly improving Many small scale applications Thermal Electric is dispatchable Can co-locate with Fossil Plant Cons Large $/Watt installation costs Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities difficult Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7

16. Wind Pros and Cons Pros Low levelized costs Small footprint on the Land Applicable on both large and small scale Some wind resources is usually always present Cons Visual Pollution Resource is erratic in nature and therefore requires energy storage Transmission line expense for remote wind farms is large

17. OTEC; Gulf Current Pros Has enough capacity to sustain world for centuries In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy Cons Gigantic up front costs Engineering challenge Requires world cooperation

18. Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM 2 ) 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM 2 ) 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton) 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW) 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW) 4. MW output versus production time scale to bring on line (months/MW) 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) 5. Capital cost per MW ($/Watt) 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH) 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

19. To Evaluate Electricity Generating Technologies Develop an internally consistent indexing system for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow jones is an index) Use real world data and real world physics to best determine the values Weight the indexes appropriately (real world cares about $/Watt and Jobs Created) Choose Baseline – we will use Solar in the following exercise

20. Indexing - Solar 1. Land ~20 (over 24 hour day) = 1 1. Land ~20 (over 24 hour day) = 1 2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1 2. Materials ~3 tons per kw = 1 3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW 3. Jobs ~3 jobs per MW 4. Time ~10 MW per month 4. Time ~10 MW per month 5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost 5. Capital ~3$ per watt real facility cost 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH 6. Levelized 10 cents per KWH

21. IndexSolarWindWavesBiomass Land1102.2 Material13.51 Jobs1115 Time13.5.5 Capital12.75.5 Level13.51 Cumulative Index = 1+2+(1.5)3+4+1.25(5)+1.25(6) Highest Index is Best

22. Relative Ranking Solar = 7 Solar = 7 Waves =7.5 Waves =7.5 Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) Biomass =11 (because of jobs created) Wind = 24 (because of excellent material ratio and low Levelized costs) Wind = 24 (because of excellent material ratio and low Levelized costs)

23. Thinking Big -Solar  Sonoran Desert Project: 300,000 square km @ 2% coverage yields 100,000 MW 10% coverage yields 500,000 MW

24. Thinking Big - Wind Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis: Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each containing 1200 5 MW turbines: 180,000 MW

25. Thinking Real Big - Wind Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind Turbines: Construct 10,000 of these (Space Needle Size) @1 per 125 square km. This produces 1TW of electricity and effectively replaces all other forms of electricity generation in the US.

26. Summary Solutions Exist both on small scale and very large scale Solutions Exist both on small scale and very large scale We do not really have an energy crisis – we do have an energy by fossil fuel crisis We do not really have an energy crisis – we do have an energy by fossil fuel crisis Transition requires leadership and courage and commitment – a true test of humanity as a global entity. Transition requires leadership and courage and commitment – a true test of humanity as a global entity. OTEC, Wind, Small Scale Solar, Snakes, Dragons, Hydrogen Production represents solution space OTEC, Wind, Small Scale Solar, Snakes, Dragons, Hydrogen Production represents solution space

27. Summary 2 We must approach an equivalent fuel economy of 50 mpg for any technology We must approach an equivalent fuel economy of 50 mpg for any technology We must enable the smart grid to truly manage electricty use better We must enable the smart grid to truly manage electricty use better Conservation and reduced consumption remain our best hope to have a future Conservation and reduced consumption remain our best hope to have a future

28. Summary 3 Post WW II conspicuous consumption and consumer capitalism has clearly burst Post WW II conspicuous consumption and consumer capitalism has clearly burst We may be evolving globally away from conspicuous consumption and towards necessary consumption We may be evolving globally away from conspicuous consumption and towards necessary consumption Further evolution takes one to sustainability Further evolution takes one to sustainability But what is the timescale to evolve from necessary consumption to sustainability? But what is the timescale to evolve from necessary consumption to sustainability?

29. Be Optimistic  Change can occur – this class is part of this process  always think BIG!  Individual attitudes matter and multiply – therefore be well informed and don’t be SunShine MoonBeam  European Union is providing a good example of government driven initiatives for a new energy economy  Technology is rapidly improving – viable options exist  We are not necessarily terminally stupid  we might reacquire wisdom.