1. Measurement 17.871 Spring 2007

2. Topics From abstraction to measure Sources of error What to do about error Practical ways to improve measurement Data collection and entry

3. The Mapping X Y x y exex eyey Theory Observation

4. Mapping from the Abstract to the Measurement Some abstract things we try to measure  Alienation  Traditional morality  Democracy  Party identification  Fear of defeat  Terrorism  Ideology

5. Sources of Error in Measurement Random versus systematic Conceptual or design error Survey question wording Transcription, calculation & mechanization errors

6. What to Do About Error Practice safe data  Know where your data come from  Watch for anomalies  Use multiple measurement techniques  Collect as much data as possible and disaggregate

7. Practical things to do about measurement Distinction between a measure and an indicator  Measure: straightforward quantification of a variable of interest  Indicator: quantification of a variable that is believed (or known) to be highly correlated with the “real” variable of interest

8. Examples of Measures Income in $$ Age in years Votes Number of wars Campaign contributions Measurement issues tend to focus on the quality of the data-gathering method, especially sampling – e.g., Iraqi deaths

9. Examples of Indicators Most measures are really indicators Public opinion  Party identification  Trust in government  Ideology Economics  Gross domestic (national) product Characterizations of political systems  Freedom  Transparency  Democracy Quality of colleges

10. How do we generate indicators? Trust others and hope for the best  GDP, etc.  Presidential approval Use a single measure and hope for the best 7- point ideology scale  7-point party identification scale  Codings of “wars” or “rally events”  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist “nuclear clock”  US News and World Report ranking of colleges Use multiple measures creatively

11. Multiple-measure indicators “Moral traditionalism” battery

12. Other Multiple-Variable Indicators Americans for Democratic Action Support Scores Freedom House freedom assessment MIT Teaching Quality Transparency International’s “Corruption Perceptions Index” DNominate Scores

13. Scaling: How to Create Multiple Indicators

14. Imagine an unobserved factor that gives rise to observable factors Democracy Healthiness Personal financial condition Conservatism Religiosity Teaching quality College quality Racism Unobserved factor Measure 1 Measure 2 Measure n... b1b1 b2b2 bnbn e1e1 e2e2 e3e3 Democracy Fairness of elections Meaningfulness of elections Freedom of expression b1b1 b2b2 b4b4 e1e1 e2e2 e3e3 Unbiased reporting of official pronouncements e4e4 b3b3

15. Scaling and Inter-correlation Check whether observed factors are correlated  In Stata: use corr [variables]  The usual rule is above.3 Check that the items fall on one factor with underline that  In Stata: use factor [variables], pcf  Eigenvalues above 1 may indicate an unobserved factor  Look for factors with eigenvalues much larger than other factors  Factor loadings should be above.5 for variables on the observed factor and below.3 on other factors  These rules are suggestive

16. Warning Exploratory analysis is dangerous, be wary  E.g., survey questions that ask for agreement can fall on different factors than if the the same questions ask about disagreement Best used to confirm expectations

17. Scaling and Reliability (Wikipedia, 2007) Cronbach's α (alpha) measures reliabilityreliability Indicates the extent to which items can be treated as measuring a single latent variablelatent variable

18. Scaling and Reliability Reliability should be above 0.6  i.e., less than 40% of the variance is error In Stata, use alpha [variables], item Each item should contribute to reliability

19. Generating the Scale Create index using Stata commands  generate  egen  alpha [variables], item g([new scale variable]) Warning, these commands differ in  how they treat missing data  whether they reverse the direction of the variables

20. Instructions for data entry The first entry in a column should be a unique variable name that describes the variable, e.g., “vote” Variable names and data should have no spaces and No special characters (e.g., \,$,*,@, #) Data should always be entered numerically (e.g., Republican vote coded to 1, Democratic vote coded to 0), unless data are unique strings, e.g., proper names

21. Instructions for data entry Each column should code for a single variable  If concepts have multiple components, try to break them into separate variables E.g., if you are interested in Democratic incumbents versus Republican incumbents, code the party as one variable and incumbency as another In Excel, format the columns as numbers, not dollars or percentages Include the source information for variables in the same file as a comment on the cell, on a separate sheet or page, or to the left of the data columns Whenever possible, both print or photocopy the source of the data and save the source in the same folder as the data