1. Pathways Towards Sustainable and Profitable Fisheries Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany rfroese@ifm-geomar.de FC-UBC, 08 March 2011 1

2. Overview Some definitions Global status of stocks European Stocks and Fisheries Current Work Conclusions Discussion 2

3. Some Definitions Stocks are the exploited part of populations Biomass (B) refers to the sum of body weights of mature individuals (= spawning stock biomass) MSY is the maximum sustainable yield or catch F is the fraction of the stock dying from fishing (= fishing mortality) F msy is the F that produces MSY at the stock size B msy (less if the stock is smaller, more if it is larger) TAC is the total allowable catch per year per stock 3

4. Global Status of Fish Stocks 4

5. Global catches can increase 40% under effective management Subsidies (27 billion) exceed value added Commercial stocks are headed towards collapse under current management 5

6. ? Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002 6

7. Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ? Worm et al., Science 2006 Stocks (%) 2048 ? 7

8. Rainer Froese Amanda Stern-Pirlot Kathleen Kesner-Reyes The global number and percentage of stocks producing less than 10% of their maximum landings continues to increase New stocks are getting less, approaching zero after 2020 8

9. Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009 9

10. 10

11. European Stocks and Fisheries Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR 11

12. NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FECUNDITY AND ANNUAL REPRODUCTIVE RATE IN BONY FISH Rainer FROESE, Susan LUNA ACTA ICHTHYOLOGICA ET PISCATORIA (2004) 34 (1): 11–20 Maximum annual reproductive rate versus mean (solid dots) and minimum (open dots) annual fecundity. 12

13. Fish and Fisheries, 2004, 5, 86–91 Keep it simple: three indicators to deal with overfishing Rainer Froese 13

14. Reducing catch to F msy is good but insufficient Stock size may increase seven-fold if fish are caught after multiple spawning, at around 2/3 of their maximum length Large stock size means low cost of fishing 14

15. Age-structure of North Sea Cod, with same catch but different minimum size For a given catch, the impact on the stock is least if fish are caught at L opt Current F msy F msy & L opt 15

16. Same catch, better age structure Stock size can increase seven-fold 16

17. The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015 With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years 17

18. Rebuilding European Fish Stocks Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010 18

19. Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010 UNCLOSCFPFAO/UNFASJPOIDamanaki 19

20. In Press CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control CFP aims for smallest instead of optimal stock size Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty The precautionary principle is perverted Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and maintain overcapacity 20

21. Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR 21

22. Generic Harvest Control Rules for European Fisheries Rainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann Under review Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63% 22

23. Harvest Control Rule Schema 23

24. Fisheries in 2007 24

25. North Sea Herring 1960 - 1978 25

26. North Sea-Herring 1979 - 2008 26

27. Critique of Planned F-based Management F msy is taken as target, not limit, thus violating UNFSA and the precautionary principle Fishing at F msy is less profitable than at F mey Fishing at F msy results in substantially smaller stocks, violating the ecosystem approach Fishing at F msy results in strongly fluctuating catches with high uncertainty for the industry Fishing at F msy provides strong incentives for overcapacity Fishing at TAC = 0.9 MSY solves these problems 27

28. ICES F-based Mangement 28

29. North Sea Herring Once More F-based Management would not have prevented the collapse of herring. 29

30. Profits in Fisheries 30

31. Making a Miracle Come True: Three Options for Rebuilding the Cod Stock in the Eastern Baltic Sea Submitted as Point of View (AISI) to MEPS Rainer Froese and Martin Quaas Due to several lucky coincidences, the eastern Baltic cod stock is recovering Here we look at options for management to fully rebuild the stock and make the fishery highly profitable 31

32. Simulated catches for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options. The dotted horizontal line indicates the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). 32

33. Simulated spawning stock biomass (SSB) of the eastern Baltic cod, resulting from four different management options. The dotted horizontal line shows the biomass that would produce the maximum sustainable yield (Bmsy). 33

34. Simulated profits for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options. 34

35. Current Work Regarding not-taken catches as highly profitable investment in the resource Evaluating status of MSC-certified stocks Practical approaches to data-poor stock assessment and management 35

36. Conclusions Rebuilding healthy stocks and fisheries is possible, sometimes even without pain for the fishers Reducing fishing effort alone is not enough, mean size in catch needs to be increased in addition Profits from healthy fisheries can be much higher then currently, making subsidies unnecessary `Pain-less´ paths towards profitable fisheries exist 36

37. Thank You Questions? Rainer Froese rfroese@ifm-geomar.de 37