1. Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry WMU Climate Change Workshop 7-8 June 2007 Malmo Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia Pacific / Environmental Manager tim.wilkins@intertanko.com

2. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry INTERTANKO International Association of Independent Tanker Owners Trade Association for tanker owners 260 members, 40 countries, 2500 tankers, 300 Associate Members INTERTANKO office 25 persons Representation – IMO, Brussels Washington Information advisory service Oslo – London - Washington – Singapore Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of: Zero fatalities Zero pollution Zero detentions

3. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Overview Shipping effects on Climate Change IMO discussions on Annex VI – CO2 and other GHGs Fuel consumption enhancement What will/does Climate Change mean? Are we already witnessing the evolution of Climate Change effects? Climate Change effects on Shipping Based on the ‘Assumptions’ What can the shipping industry expect

4. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Climate Change Assumptions (generalised) i. i.Warmer Seas ii. ii.Sea Level Rise iii. iii.Unpredictable Weather Patterns

5. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Climate Change i. i.Warmer Seas Invasive Species Risk Increase Ballast water e.g. Great Lakes Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia Continued importance of finding treatment systems for ballast water Greater and increased vigilance by coastal states Biofouling Crucial role of anti-fouling systems and hull fouling management Increased requirements on shipping industry associated with biofouling

6. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Climate Change i. i.Warmer Seas cntd. Ice sheet reductions Opening up of new sea routes Oil spill response Tug escort and ice breaker capability Mammal population changes e.g. North Atlantic Right Whale New navigation considerations ii. ii.Sea Level Rise Physical change of coastal zone Change in port infrastructure and expansion Physical change of water basin Opening up of new inland navigable routes

7. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Climate Change iii. iii.Unpredictable Weather Patterns Increased Storm intensity Wave and swell height / periodicity increases 100 year storm design criteria may need to be revised Increased storm frequency Raises question of fatigue analysis and design life of structure Weather Routing Increasing dependency in weather routing Recognition of increased intensity of storms by commercial entities (consumer and charterer)

8. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Climate Change iii. iii.Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd. Warmer climate Reduction of ice sheets leading to increased evaporation in smaller sea areas e.g. Great Lakes Drought conditions Reduced under keel clearance and reduced cargo loading capability Terrestrial Matters Drought / Storm frequency leading to increased sedimentation Increased sediment loading of navigable channels Increased dredging to maintain under keel clearance or Reduced cargo carrying capabilities New designs e.g. Stena V-Max Emerging markets e.g. new agricultural, shifting oil demand Changing trading patterns to be envisaged

9. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Climate Change iii. iii.Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd. Seasonal Changes Tropical storms August to November now to January Design life and fatigue issues (Atlantic storm/Pacific storm) Shortened winters and decreased severity of winters will effect iced waterways Increased trade opportunities

10. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry Conclusions -Industry will need to know and understand the perceived physical and biological changes which climate change will bring - -Time frame assessment – design and commercial consideration when investing in tonnage - -Monitoring and assessment should begin on what can reasonably be attributed to climate change - -Regional variations will be a major concern for an international industry

11. WMU Climate Change Workshop, Malmo 2007 Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry www.intertanko.com thank you for your time…