1. What is coming… n Today: u Probabilistic models u Improving classical models F Latent Semantic Indexing F Relevance feedback (Chapter 5) n Monday Feb 5 u Chapter 5 continued n Wednesday Feb 7 u Web Search Engines F Chapter 13 & Google paper

2. Annoucement: Free Food Event n Where & When: GWC 487, Tuesday Feb 6 th, 12:15-1:30 n What: Pizza, Softdrinks n Catch: A pitch on going to graduate school at ASU CSE… u Meet admissions committee, some graduate students, some faculty members n Silver-lining: Did we mention Pizza? u Also not as boring as time-sharing condo presentations. Make Sure to Come!!

3. Problems with Vector Model n No semantic basis! u Keywords are plotted as axes F But are they really independent? F Or they othogonal? u No support for boolean queries F How do you ask for papers that don’t contain a keyword?

4. Probabilistic Model n Objective: to capture the IR problem using a probabilistic framework n Given a user query, there is an ideal answer set u Querying as specification of the properties of this ideal answer set (clustering) n But, what are these properties? u Guess at the beginning what they could be (i.e., guess initial description of ideal answer set) u Improve by iteration

5. Probabilistic Model n An initial set of documents is retrieved somehow n User inspects these docs looking for the relevant ones (in truth, only top 10-20 need to be inspected) n IR system uses this information to refine description of ideal answer set n By repeting this process, it is expected that the description of the ideal answer set will improve u Have always in mind the need to guess at the very beginning the description of the ideal answer set u Description of ideal answer set is modeled in probabilistic terms

6. Probabilistic Ranking Principle n Given a user query q and a document dj, u estimate the probability that the user will find the document dj interesting (i.e., relevant). F The model assumes that this probability of relevance depends on the query and the document representations only. F Ideal answer set is referred to as R and should maximize the probability of relevance. Documents in the set R are predicted to be relevant. n But, u how to compute probabilities? u what is the sample space?

7. The Ranking n Probabilistic ranking computed as: u sim(q,dj) = P(dj relevant-to q) / P(dj non-relevant-to q) F This is the odds of the document dj being relevant F Taking the odds minimize the probability of an erroneous judgement n Definition: u wij  {0,1} u P(R | vec(dj)) : probability that given doc is relevant u P(  R | vec(dj)) : probability doc is not relevant

8. The Ranking n sim(dj,q) = P(R | vec(dj)) / P(  R | vec(dj)) = [P(vec(dj) | R) * P(R)] [P(vec(dj) |  R) * P(  R)] ~ P(vec(dj) | R) P(vec(dj) |  R) u P(vec(dj) | R) : probability of randomly selecting the document dj from the set R of relevant documents Bayes Rule P(R ) and P(  R ) Same for all docs

9. Bayesian Inference Schools of thought in probability u freqüentist u epistemological

10. Basic Probability Basic Axioms: F 0 < P(A) < 1 ; F P(certain)=1; F P(A V B)=P(A)+P(B) if A and B are mutually exclusive

11. Basic Probability Conditioning F P(A)=P(A  B)+P(A  ¬B) F P(A)=   i P(A  B i ), where B i,  i is a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events F P(A) + P(¬A) = 1 n Independence F P(A|K) belief in A given the knowledge K F if P(A|B)=P(A), we say:A and B are independent F if P(A|B  C)= P(A|C), we say: A and B are conditionally independent, given C F P(A  B)=P(A|B)P(B) F P(A)=   i P(A | B i )P(B i )

12. Bayesian Inference Bayes’ Rule : the heart of Bayesian techniques P(H|e) = P(e|H)P(H) / P(e) Where, H : a hypothesis and e is an evidence P(H) : prior probability P(H|e) : posterior probability P(e|H) : probability of e if H is true P(e) : a normalizing constant, then we write: P(H|e) ~ P(e|H)P(H)

13. The Ranking n sim(dj,q)~ P(vec(dj) | R) P(vec(dj) |  R) Where vec(dj) is of the form (k1,  k2,k3....kt) Using pair-wise independence assumption among keywords ~ [  P(ki | R)] * [  P(  ki | R)] [  P(ki |  R)] * [  P(  ki |  R)] n P(ki | R) : probability that the index term ki is present in a document randomly selected from the set R of relevant documents For keywords that are present in dj For keywords that are NOT present in dj

14. The Ranking n sim(dj,q)~ log [  P(ki | R)] * [  P(  kj | R)] [  P(ki |  R)] * [  P(  kj |  R)] ~ K * [ log  P(ki | R) + P(  ki | R) log  P(ki |  R) ] P(  ki |  R) ~  wiq * wij * (log P(ki | R) + log P(ki |  R) ) P(  ki | R) P(  ki |  R) where P(  ki | R) = 1 - P(ki | R) P(  ki |  R) = 1 - P(ki |  R)

15. The Initial Ranking n sim(dj,q)~ ~  wiq * wij * (log P(ki | R) + log P(ki |  R) ) P(  ki | R) P(  ki |  R) u Probabilities P(ki | R) and P(ki |  R) ? n Estimates based on assumptions: u P(ki | R) = 0.5 u P(ki |  R) = ni N where ni is the number of docs that contain ki u Use this initial guess to retrieve an initial ranking u Improve upon this initial ranking

16. Improving the Initial Ranking n sim(dj,q)~ ~  wiq * wij * (log P(ki | R) + log P(ki |  R) ) P(  ki | R) P(  ki |  R) n Let u V : set of docs initially retrieved u Vi : subset of docs retrieved that contain ki n Reevaluate estimates: u P(ki | R) = Vi V u P(ki |  R) = ni - Vi N - V n Repeat recursively Relevance Feedback..

17. Improving the Initial Ranking n sim(dj,q)~ ~  wiq * wij * (log P(ki | R) + log P(ki |  R) ) P(  ki | R) P(  ki |  R) n To avoid problems with V=1 and Vi=0: u P(ki | R) = Vi + 0.5 V + 1 u P(ki |  R) = ni - Vi + 0.5 N - V + 1 n Also, u P(ki | R) = Vi + ni/N V + 1 u P(ki |  R) = ni - Vi + ni/N N - V + 1 Relevance Feedback..

18. Pluses and Minuses n Advantages: u Docs ranked in decreasing order of probability of relevance n Disadvantages: u need to guess initial estimates for P(ki | R) u method does not take into account tf and idf factors

19. Brief Comparison of Classic Models n Boolean model does not provide for partial matches and is considered to be the weakest classic model n Salton and Buckley did a series of experiments that indicate that, in general, the vector model outperforms the probabilistic model with general collections n This seems also to be the view of the research community

20. Alternative Probabilistic Models n Probability Theory u Semantically clear u Computationally clumsy n Why Bayesian Networks? u Clear formalism to combine evidences u Modularize the world (dependencies) u Bayesian Network Models for IR F Inference Network (Turtle & Croft, 1991) F Belief Network (Ribeiro-Neto & Muntz, 1996)

21. Bayesian Networks Definition: Bayesian networks are directed acyclic graphs (DAGS) in which the nodes represent random variables, the arcs portray causal relationships between these variables, and the strengths of these causal influences are expressed by conditional probabilities.

22. Bayesian Networks y i : parent nodes (in this case, root nodes) x : child node y i cause x Y the set of parents of x The influence of Y on x can be quantified by any function F(x,Y) such that   x F(x,Y) = 1 0 < F(x,Y) < 1 For example, F(x,Y)=P(x|Y)

23. Bayesian Networks Given the dependencies declared in a Bayesian Network, the expression for the joint probability can be computed as a product of local conditional probabilities, for example, P(x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, x 5 )= P(x 1 ) P(x 2 | x 1 ) P(x 3 | x 1 ) P(x 4 | x 2, x 3 ) P(x 5 | x 3 ). P(x 1 ) : prior probability of the root node

24. Bayesian Networks In a Bayesian network each variable x is conditionally independent of all its non-descendants, given its parents. For example: P(x 4, x 5 | x 2, x 3 )= P(x 4 | x 2, x 3 ) P( x 5 | x 3 )

25. An Example Bayes Net Typically, networks written in causal direction wind up being most compact need least number of probabilities to be specified

26. Two Models “Inference Network model” “Belief network model”

27. Comparison F Inference Network Model is the first and well known Used in Inquery system F Belief Network adopts a set-theoretic view a clearly defined sample space a separation between query and document portions is able to reproduce any ranking produced by the Inference Network while the converse is not true (for example: the ranking of the standard vector model)

28. Belief Network Model n As the Inference Network Model u Epistemological view of the IR problem u Random variables associated with documents, index terms and queries n Contrary to the Inference Network Model u Clearly defined sample space u Set-theoretic view u Different network topology

29. Belief Network Model The Probability Space Define: K={k 1, k 2,...,k t } the sample space (a concept space) u  K a subset of K (a concept) k i an index term (an elementary concept) k=(k 1, k 2,...,k t ) a vector associated to each u such that g i (k)=1  k i  u k i a binary random variable associated with the index term k i, (k i = 1  g i (k)=1  k i  u)

30. Belief Network Model A Set-Theoretic View Define: a document d j and query q as concepts in K a generic concept c in K a probability distribution P over K, as P(c)=   u P(c|u) P(u) P(u)=(1/2) t P(c) is the degree of coverage of the space K by c

31. Belief Network Model Network topology query side document side

32. Belief Network Model Assumption P(d j |q) is adopted as the rank of the document d j with respect to the query q. It reflects the degree of coverage provided to the concept d j by the concept q.

33. Belief Network Model The rank of d j P(d j |q) = P(d j  q) / P(q) ~ P(d j  q) ~   u P(d j  q | u) P(u) ~   u P(d j | u) P(q | u) P(u) ~   k P(d j | k) P(q | k) P(k)

34. Belief Network Model For the vector model Define Define a vector k i given by k i = k | ((g i (k)=1)  (  j  i g j (k)=0))  in the state k i only the node k i is active and all the others are inactive

35. Belief Network Model For the vector model Define (w i,q / |q|) if k = k i  g i (q)=1 P(q | k) = 0 if k  k i v g i (q)=0 P(¬q | k) = 1 - P(q | k)  (w i,q / |q|) is a normalized version of weight of the index term k i in the query q

36. Belief Network Model For the vector model Define (w i,j / |d j |) if k = k i  g i (d j )=1 P(d j | k) = 0 if k  k i v g i (d j )=0 P(¬ d j | k) = 1 - P(d j | k)  (w i,j / |d j |) is a normalized version of the weight of the index term k i in the document d,j

37. Inference Network Model n Epistemological view of the IR problem n Random variables associated with documents, index terms and queries n A random variable associated with a document d j represents the event of observing that document

38. Inference Network Model Nodes documents (d j ) index terms (k i ) queries (q, q 1, and q 2 ) user information need (I) Edges from d j to its index term nodes k i indicate that the observation of d j increase the belief in the variables k i.

39. Inference Network Model d j has index terms k 2, k i, and k t q has index terms k 1, k 2, and k i q 1 and q 2 model boolean formulation q 1 =((k 1  k 2 ) v k i ); I = (q v q 1 )

40. Inference Network Model Definitions: k 1, d j,, and q random variables. k=(k 1, k 2,...,k t ) a t-dimensional vector k i,  i  {0, 1}, then k has 2 t possible states d j,  j  {0, 1};  q  {0, 1} The rank of a document d j is computed as P(q  d j ) q and d j, are short representations for q=1 and d j =1 (d j stands for a state where d j = 1 and  l  j  d l =0, because we observe one document at a time)

41. Inference Network Model P(q  d j )=   k P(q  d j | k) P(k) =   k P(q  d j  k) =   k P(q | d j  k) P(d j  k) =   k P(q | k) P(k | d j ) P( d j ) P(¬(q  d j )) = 1 - P(q  d j )

42. Inference Network Model As the instantiation of d j makes all index term nodes mutually independent P(k | d j ) can be a product,then P(q  d j )=   k [ P(q | k) (   i|g i (k)=1 P(k i | d j ) ) (   i|g i (k)=0 P(¬k i | d j ) ) P( d j ) ] remember that: g i (k)= 1 if k i =1 in the vector k 0 otherwise

43. Inference Network Model The prior probability P(d j ) reflects the probability associated to the event of observing a given document d j F Uniformly for N documents P(d j ) = 1/N P(¬d j ) = 1 - 1/N F Based on norm of the vector d j P(d j )= 1/|d j | P(¬d j ) = 1 - 1/|d j |

44. Inference Network Model For the Boolean Model P(d j ) = 1/N 1 if g i (d j )=1 P(k i | d j ) = 0 otherwise P(¬k i | d j ) = 1 - P(k i | d j )  only nodes associated with the index terms of the document d j are activated

45. Inference Network Model For the Boolean Model 1 if  q cc | (q cc  q dnf )  (  k i, g i (k)= g i (q cc ) P(q | k) = 0 otherwise P(¬q | k) = 1 - P(q | k)  one of the conjunctive components of the query must be matched by the active index terms in k

46. Inference Network Model For a tf-idf ranking strategy P(d j )= 1 / |d j | P(¬d j ) = 1 - 1 / |d j |  prior probability reflects the importance of document normalization

47. Inference Network Model For a tf-idf ranking strategy P(k i | d j ) = f i,j P(¬k i | d j )= 1- f i,j  the relevance of the a index term k i is determined by its normalized term-frequency factor f i,j = freq i,j / max freq l,j

48. Inference Network Model For a tf-idf ranking strategy Define a vector k i given by k i = k | ((g i (k)=1)  (  j  i g j (k)=0))  in the state k i only the node k i is active and all the others are inactive

49. Inference Network Model For a tf-idf ranking strategy idf i if k = k i  g i (q)=1 P(q | k) = 0 if k  k i v g i (q)=0 P(¬q | k) = 1 - P(q | k)  we can sum up the individual contributions of each index term by its normalized idf

50. Inference Network Model For a tf-idf ranking strategy As P(q|k)=0  k  k i, we can rewrite P(q  d j ) as P(q  d j ) =   ki [ P(q | k i ) P(k i | d j ) (   l|l  i P(¬k l | d j ) ) P( d j ) ] = (   i P(¬k l | d j ) ) P( d j )   ki [ P(k i | d j ) P(q | k i ) / P(¬k i | d j ) ]

51. Inference Network Model For a tf-idf ranking strategy Applying the previous probabilities we have P(q  d j ) = C j (1/|d j |)   i [ f i,j idf i (1/(1- f i,j )) ]  C j vary from document to document  the ranking is distinct of the one provided by the vector model

52. Inference Network Model Combining evidential source Let I = q v q 1 P(I  d j )=   k P(I | k) P(k | d j ) P( d j ) =   k [1 - P(¬q|k)P(¬q 1 | k)] P(k| d j ) P( d j )  it might yield a retrieval performance which surpasses the retrieval performance of the query nodes in isolation (Turtle & Croft)

53. Bayesian Network Models Computational costs F Inference Network Model one document node at a time then is linear on number of documents F Belief Network only the states that activate each query term are considered F The networks do not impose additional costs because the networks do not include cycles.

54. Bayesian Network Models Impact The major strength is net combination of distinct evidential sources to support the rank of a given document.