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Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 1 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Some evidence on inter-generational mobility 2.The role of.

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1 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 1 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Some evidence on inter-generational mobility 2.The role of education 3.Returns to higher education 4. What has sex got to do with it? 5.Why is it more important to do well at university?

2 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 2 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility i.What would perfect mobility (= zero persistence) look like (S3)? ii.Absolute immobility/persistence (S4)? iii.Partial mobility/persistence (S5-6)? iv.The evidence for the Nordic countries, the US and the UK: a)What would you expect? b)(The American Dream vs the rigidity of the Nanny State? c)The evidence... (S7) d)Digging deeper... Non-linearity

3 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 3 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility Y t-1 YtYt Y t = Y t-1 Perfect Mobility x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

4 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 4 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility Y t-1 YtYt Y t = Y t-1 Perfect Immobility x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

5 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 5 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility Y t-1 YtYt Y t = Y t-1 Imperfect Mobility x x x x x x x x x x xx x x

6 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 6 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility Y t-1 YtYt Y t = Y t-1 Regression line x x x x x x x x x x xx x x

7 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 7 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility Y t-1 YtYt Y t = Y t-1 The US and Norway: which is which? And where is the UK?

8 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 8 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Evidence on inter-generational mobility... Digging deeper Y t-1 YtYt Y t = Y t-1 Flat-bottoms? x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

9 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 9 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Digging deeper – Transition Matrices An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK Source: Naylor et al., using NCDS 1958 birth cohort data.

10 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 10 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Digging deeper – Transition Matrices An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK

11 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 11 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Digging deeper – Transition Matrices An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; Norway Less persistence at bottom in Norway than UK More downward mobility in Norway than UK But High persistence at top

12 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 12 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Digging deeper – Transition Matrices An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; US Very high persistence at bottom Very little downward mobility in the US

13 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 13 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Why do we observe this flat-bottom pattern in the Nordic countries, but not in the UK or the US? Hypotheses... ?

14 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 14 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Some evidence on inter-generational mobility 2.The role of education 3.Returns to higher education 4. What has sex got to do with it? 5.Why is it more important to do well at university?

15 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 15 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Pattern of mobility reflects educational structures

16 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 16 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Changes over time: Pattern of mobility reflects educational structures Note some evidence for the UK regarding changes in mobility over time following policy regime changes: (i)Intergenerational Mobility of 1958 birth cohort greater than that of their parents (comprehensive education, HE expansion) (ii) Intergenerational Mobility of 1970 birth cohort less than that of the 1958 birth cohort (HE expansion coupled with switch from grants to loans)

17 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 17 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Some evidence on inter-generational mobility 2.The role of education 3.Returns to higher education 4. What has sex got to do with it? 5.Why is it more important to do well at university?

18 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 18 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Current Policy Debate in the UK: Higher Fees/Differential Fees Evidence from: BCS70 (Smith, Naylor and Bratti) and from USR-HESA data (Smith and Naylor) to show substantial and significant variation in the returns to a degree (around average of circa 18%) according to: Subject Studied, Institution Implications are... ?

19 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 19 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education But... evidence also shows substantial and significant variation in the returns to a degree according to: school background social class background degree class:the premium for a degree (relative to A-levels) of: 20% for a 2.1 or 1 st 10% for a 2.2 or lower Implications are... ?

20 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 20 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Evidence also shows differences in HE performance by school background. Implication is...?

21 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 21 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Some evidence on inter-generational mobility 2.The role of education 3.Returns to higher education 4. What has sex got to do with it? 5.Why is it more important to do well at university?

22 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 22 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education Empirical indicators of marital sorting Denmark Finland Norway UK US Correlations in educational attainment Female cohort members DkNoUKUS self vs. husband.433.495.533.562 her father vs. her mother.476.489.571.627 her father vs. his father.153.244.359

23 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 23 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education 1.Some evidence on inter-generational mobility 2.The role of education 3.Returns to higher education 4. What has sex got to do with it? 5.Why is it more important to do well at university?

24 Robin NaylorPPE Society 30 th November 2009 24 Socio-economic Mobility and Higher Education

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