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Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast. Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at.

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Presentation on theme: "Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast. Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at."— Presentation transcript:

1 Recap of Water Year 2008 Hydrologic Forecast

2 Conclusions: The WY 2007 ESP forecast predicted increased likelihood of drought. Observed summer flows at Milner in 2007 were strongly below average (~55% of normal for April-Sept) and were towards the bottom of the ensemble. A moderate to strong cool ENSO event is expected for the winter of 2007-2008, which historically is associated with increased likelihood of above average Apr-Sep flow at Milner. Dry initial soil conditions in the basin are projected to systematically reduce natural flows at Milner from April-Sept for water year 2008. However even with dry soils, the forecast at Milner shows increased chance of high flows. Snakesim model simulations suggest increases in carry over storage in the upper Snake in Sept 2008 above about 1.0 MAF.

3 Validation Plot for the ECMWF Nino3.4 Forecast

4 Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

5 Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP all years) Milner

6 Natural Flow (KAF) Red = long term mean Blue = ensemble mean Gray = ensemble members Black = range of observations Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (ESP cool ENSO) Milner

7 Upper Snake Storage (KAF) Full SnakeSim Storage Forecast (cool ENSO composite) Obs. Oct 10, 2008

8 1932-0.235 19431.137 19651.238 19712.170 19741.686 19841.883 1989-0.080 Historic Milner Apr-Sept streamflow anomalies for water years with previous winter warm ENSO, current winter cool ENSO WYStd Ann. Stats: 5 of 7 above 1.1 3 of 7 above 1.7

9 enso_2008enso_trans_2008 Based on Milner ESP 1961-2000 Natural Flow (KAF)

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