1. Mata Kuliah: M0014 / Konsep Sistem Informasi Tahun : 2008 Pertemuan 23 – 24 Chapter 09 : Managerial Support Systems

2. Bina Nusantara Mahasiswa dapat menerangkan konsep manajemen, pengambilan keputusan, sistem penunjang keputusan. (C2) Mahasiswa dapat menghubungkan sistem penunjang keputusan bagi perusahaan dan eksekutif. (C3) Learning Outcomes

3. Bina Nusantara Managers and Decision Making Decision Support Systems Executive Information (Support) Systems Intelligent System Pembahasan kasus halaman 299-300 “Apparel Retailer Has to Stay Current “ Rincian Materi

4. Introduction to Information Technology  Authors: Turban, Rainer and Potter  Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  Slides by: Hellene Bankowski, Professor, Philadelphia University Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 94

5. Managerial Support Systems Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 95

6. Chapter Outline  9.1 Managers and Decision Making  9.2 Decision Support Systems  9.3 Enterprise and Executive Decision Support Systems  9.4 Intelligent Systems Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 96

7. Learning Objectives  Understand the concepts of management, decision making and computerized support for decision making.  Discuss decision support systems (DSSs), focusing on their structure and the benefits they provide for managers.  Understand computerized support for group decision making. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 97

8. Learning Objectives (Continued)  Understand artificial intelligence (AI).  Define an expert system and identify its components.  Describe natural language processing and natural language generation and neural networks. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 98

9. 9.1 Managers and Decision Making  Management is a process by which organizational goals are achieved through the use of resource (people, money, energy, materials, space, time). These resources are considered to be inputs; The attainment of the goals is viewed as the output of the process; The ratio between inputs and outputs is an indication of the organization’s productivity.. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 99

10. The Manager’s Job & Decision Making  Managers three basic roles (Mintzberg 1973) Interpersonal roles figurehead, leader, liaison Informational roles monitor, disseminator, spokesperson Decisional roles entrepreneur, disturbance handler, resource allocator, negotiator. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 910

11. The Manager’s Job & Decision Making (Continued)  Decision refers to a choice that individuals and group make among two or more alternatives.  Decision making is a systematic process composed of three major phases: intelligence, design and choice (Simon 1977) Implemetation phase was added later. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 911

12. Decision Making Process Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 912

13. Why Managers Need IT Support  A key to good decision making is to explore and compare many relevant alternatives. The more alternatives that exist, the more computer-assisted search and comparison are needed.  Typically, decisions must be made under time pressure. Frequently it is not possible to manually process the needed information fast enough to be effective. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 913

14. Why Managers Need It Support (Continued)  It is usually necessary to conduct a sophisticated analysis in order to make a good decision. Such analysis requires the use of modeling.  Decision makers can be in different locations and so is the information. Bringing them all together quickly and inexpensively may be a difficult task. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 914

15. Managerial Support Systems (MSSs)  Information systems that provide support for managerial decision-making (i.e. decision support systems (DSSs), group DSSs, organizational DSSs, executive information systems).  Information systems that actually make a decision (i.e. expert systems). Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 915

16. What Information Technologies are available to support Managers?  Decision support systems (DSSs) provide support primarily to analytical, quantitative types of decisions.  Executive support systems (ESSs) support the informational roles of executives.  Group decision support systems (GDSSs) supports managers and staff working in groups. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 916

17. A Framework for Computerized Decision Analysis Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 917

18. Problem Structure  The first dimension deals with the problem structure, where does the decision making processes fall along the continuum ranging from highly structured to highly unstructured decisions. Structured – routine and repetitive problems for which standard solutions exist. Unstructured – “fuzzy”, complex problems for which there are no cut-and-dried solutions. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 918

19. The Nature of Decisions  The second dimension of decision support deals with the nature of decisions operational control – executing specific tasks efficiently and effectively; management control – acquiring and using resources efficiently in accomplishing organizational goals; strategic planning – the long range goals and policies for growth and resource allocation. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 919

20. Computerized Decision Analysis  The decision matrix consists of the 3 primary classes of problem structures and the 3 broad categories of the nature of decisions combined in a matrix.  Computer support for structured decisions is for each structured decision, prescribed solutions have been developed through the use of mathematical functions. This approach is called management science or operations research. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 920

21. 9.2 Decision Support Systems (DSSs)  Decision support systems (DSSs) are computer-based information systems that combine models and data in an attempt to solve semistructured and some unstructured problems with extensive user involvement. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 921

22. DSSs (Continued)  DSSs can examine numerous alternatives very quickly.  DSSs can provide a systematic risk analysis.  DSSs can be integrated with communications systems and databases.  DSSs can be used to support group work.  DSSs can perform these functions at relatively low cost. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 922

23. Characteristics and Capabilities of DSSs  Sensitivity analysis is the study of the impact that changes in one (or more) parts of a model have on other parts.  What-if analysis is the study of the impact of a change in the assumptions (input data) on the proposed solution.  Goal-seeking analysis is the study that attempts to find the value of the inputs necessary to achieve a desired level of output. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 923

24. Structure and Components of DSSs  Data management subsystem contain all the data that flow from several sources.  Model management subsystem contains completed models and the building blocks necessary to develop DSS applications.  User interface covers all aspects of the communications between a user and the DSS.  Users are the persons faced with the problem or decision that the DSS is designed to support.  Knowledge-based subsystems provide the required expertise for solving some aspects of the problem. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 924

25. How DSSs Work – The DSS and its Computing Environment Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 925

26. Group Decision Support Systems (GDSSs)  Virtual group is a group whose members are in different locations.  Group decision support system (GDSS) is an interactive computer-based system that supports the process of finding solutions by a group of decision makers.  Decision room is a face-to-face setting for a group DSS, in which terminals are available to the participants. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 926

27. Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS)  Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS) is a DSS that focuses on an organizational task or activity involving a sequence of operations and decision makers and provides the following: It affects several organizational units or corporate problems; It cuts across organizational functions or hierarchical layers; It involves computer-based and (usually) communications technologies. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 927

28. 9.3 Executive Information (Support) Systems  Executive information system (EIS) also known as an executive support system (ESS), is a computer-based technology designed specifically for the information needs of top executives and provides for: Rapid access to timely information; Direct access to management reports; Very user friendly and supported by graphics. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 928

29. EISs (Continued)  Exception reporting – reporting of only the results that deviate from a set of standards.  Drill down reporting – investigating information in increasing detail.  Easily connected within online information services and e-mail.  Include analysis support, communications, office automation and intelligence support. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 929

30. Enterprise Decision Simulator  Technology that supports the informational needs of executives in the so-called “corporate war room”.  Management Cockpit is a strategic management room that enables top-level decision makers to pilot their businesses better.  The environment encourages more efficient management meetings and boosts team performance via effective communication. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 930

31. Enterprise Decision Simulator (Continued)  Key performance indicators and information relating to critical success factors are displayed graphically on the walls of the meeting room.  The cockpit environment is integrated with SAP’s ERP products and reporting systems.  External information can be easily imported to the room to allow competitive analysis. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 931

32. 9.4 Intelligence Systems  Intelligent systems is a term that describes the various commercial applications of AI.  Artificial intelligence (AI) is a subfield of computer science concerned with: studying the thought processes of humans; recreating those processes via machines, such as computers and robots. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 932

33. Artificial Intelligence (AI)  “Behavior by a machine that, if performed by a human being, would be considered intelligent.”  Turing test is a test for artificial intelligence, in which a human interviewer, conversing with both an unseen human being and an unseen computer, cannot determine which is which; named for British AI pioneer Alan Turing. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 933

34. Expert Systems  Expertise refers to the extensive, task- specific knowledge acquired from training, reading and experience.  Expert systems (ESs) attempt to mimic human experts by applying expertise in a specific domain. Can support decision makers or completely replace them. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 934

35. Expert Systems (Continued)  The transfer of expertise from an expert to a computer and then to a user involves four activities: Knowledge acquisition: Knowledge is from experts or from documented sources. Knowledge representation: Acquired knowledge is organized as rules or frames (objective- oriented) and stored electronically in a knowledge base. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 935

36. Expert Systems (Continued) Knowledge inferencing: Given the necessary expertise stored in the knowledge base, the computer is programmed so that it can make inferences. The reasoning function is performed in a component called the inference engine, which is the brain of ES. Knowledge transfer: The inferenced expertise is transferred to the user in the form of a recommendation. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 936

37. The Components of Expert Systems  Knowledge base contains knowledge necessary for understanding, formulating and solving problems.  Inference engine is a computer program that provides a methodology for reasoning and formulating conclusions.  User interface enables users to communicate with the computer  Blackboard is an area of working memory set aside for the description of a current problem.  Explanation subsystem explains its recommendations. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 937

38. The Benefits of Expert Systems Benefit Description Increased output and productivityESs can configure for each custom order. Increasing production capabilities Increased qualityESs can provide consistent advise and reduce error rates. Capture and dissemination of scarce expertiseExpertise from anywhere in the world can be obtained and used. Operation in hazardous environments Sensors can collect information that an ES interprets, enabling human workers to avoid hot, humid, or toxic environments. Accessibility to knowledge and help desks ESs can increase the productivity of help – desk employee, or even automate this function. Reliability ESs do not become tired or bored, call in sick or go on strike. They consistently pay attention to details. Ability to work with incomplete or uncertain information Even with answer of ‘ don’t know ‘ an ES can produce an answer, though it may not be a definite one. Provision of training The explanation facility of an ES can serve as a teaching device and knowledge base for novices. Enhancement of decision- making and problem-solving capabilities ESs allow the integration of expert judgment into analysis (e.g., diagnosis of machine malfunction and even medical diagnosis). Decreased decision-making timeESs usually can make faster decision than humans working alone. Reduce downtimeESs can quickly diagnose faster decisions than humans and prescribe repairs. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 938

39. Natural Language Processing & Voice Technologies  Natural language processing (NLP): Communicatng with a computer in English or whatever language you may speak.  Natural language understanding/speech (voice) recognition: The ability of a computer to comprehend instructions given in ordinary language, via the keyboard or by voice.  Natural language generation/voice synthesis: Technology that enables computers to produce ordinary language, by “voice” or on the screen, so that people can understand computers more easily. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 939

40. Neural Networks  Neural networks is a system of programs and data structures that approximates the operation of the human brain.  Neural networks are particularly good at recognizing subtle, hidden and newly emerging patterns within complex data as well as interpreting incomplete inputs. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 940

41. Fuzzy Logic  Fuzzy logic deals with the uncertainties by simulating the process of human reasoning, allowing the computer to behave less precisely and logically than conventional computers do. Involves decision in gray areas. Uses creative decision-making processes. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 941

42. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that permitted in section 117 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without express permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Request for further information should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. The purchaser may make back-up copies for his/her own use only and not for distribution or resale. The Publisher assumes no responsibility for error, omissions, or damages caused by the use of these programs or from the use of the information herein. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Chapter 942

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