1. VF Trends1 Soc 695 Family Violence Research In World Perspective Murray A. Straus TRENDS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE PREVALENCE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE Are child abuse and partner abuse increasing? Why does the public think crime is increasing? What explains the trends? What are the implications of these explanations for individuals and for society?

2. VF Trends2 TRENDS IN CHILD ABUSE These are the figures you are used to seeing

3. VF Trends3 REPORTED AND CONFIRMED CASES OF CHILD ABUSE, IRELAND 1984-1997 15 TIMES MORE CASES IN 1997. PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT S: “AN EPIDEMIC OF CHILD ABUSE” ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION?

4. VF Trends4 Severe: hitting a child with a belt, paddle, hairbrush on buttocks. Very Severe: hit with object on some other part of the body, kick, punch, choke, burn. Which showed the biggest decrease? Severe 140 – 55 = 85 85/140 = 61% decrease Very Severe 35 – 5 = 30 30/35 = 86% decrease

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7. 7 TO MAKE SENSE OUT OF THE TRENDS REQUIRES DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN AN INTERVENTION RATE AND A PREVALENCE RATE Intervention Rate = Cases known to service providers. Example: crime rates based on police calls, child abuse rates based on cases reported to Child Protective Services Prevalence Rate = Cases known on the basis of data for the population in general. Example: National Crime Victimization Survey, National Family Violence Surveys Can Lead To Different Conclusions: "Once partner violence starts, it continues or escalates"

8. VF Trends8 TRENDS IN CHILD SEXUAL ABUSE CASES KNOWN TO CHILD PROTECTIVE SERVICES  1970 – 1980: TREMENDOUS INCREASES – 10% PER YEAR  1992 – 2002: 44% DECREASE (Finkelhor & Jones, 2004). Similar decreases in other countries Canada Great Britain Sweden Australia New Zealand Spain Israel  COULD REFLECT CHANGE IN PUBLIC WILLINGNESS TO REPORT OR AGENCY WILLINGNESS TO CONFIRM  NEED FOR INDEPENDENT DATA FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEYS

9. VF Trends9 In physical abuse In sexual abuse

10. VF Trends10 RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH (Annual Prevalence ) PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Number per Year Cases known to State Agencies: 500,000 Cases uncovered in NFV surveys: 1,500,000 PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000 Cases reported in NFV surveys: 6.000,000

11. VF Trends11 VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS: HUGE INCREASE IN CASES OF KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS SHELTERS FOR BATTERED WOMEN First one in 1973 More every year Now over 2,000 POLICE REPORTS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE Climbed every year from 1980

12. VF Trends12 UNH NATIONAL FAMILY VIOLENCE SURVEYS FOUND LARGE DECREASE IN PV BY MEN, BUT NOT BY WOMEN This article was named a “citation classic” WHY SO FREQUENTLY CITED? TO CRITICIZE AND DENOUNCE Example: Richard Berk: "Given all we know about the pattern of crime statistics, a 47% drop is so unprecedented as to be unbelievable. Never before has there been a drop of that magnitude, that rapidly.“ But, contrary to Berk, other crime rates have changed that much and that fast. Homicide rate, for example, increased by over 100% between 1963 and 1973 WHAT HAVE OTHER STUDIES SINCE THEN FOUND?

13. VF Trends13 Boston Herald 29 Dec 05 WHAT COULD EXPLAIN THE DISCREPANCY? HOW COULD BOTH BE CORRECT?

14. VF Trends14 ILLUSTRATIONS OF HUGE INCREASES THAT REFLECT DOING MORE ABOUT THE PROBLEM (intervention rate), NOT AN INCREASE IN THE PROBLEM (prevalence rate) CHILD ABUSE IN FLORIDA Before the mandatory reporting and a hotline, there are about 1,000 cases The year after the hotline was established there were 9,000 DOMESTIC ABUSE HOTLINE FOR MEN In the first year (2000) there was about a call a day In 2004 there were about 7 per day -- a seven-fold increase

15. VF Trends15 Female Perpetrators 42% decrease Male Perpetrators 49% decrease Rennison, 2003

16. VF Trends16 VIOLENCE AGAINST PARTNERS National Family Violence Surveys

17. VF Trends17 RATES STILL EXTREMELY HIGH (Annual Prevalence ) PHYSICALLY ABUSED CHILDREN Number per Year Cases known to State Agencies: 500,000 Cases uncovered in NFV surveys: 1,500,000 PHYSICALLY ABUSED WOMEN Cases reported in NVAW surveys: 1,300,000 Cases reported in NFV surveys: 6.000,000

18. VF Trends18 TREND IN FAMILY VIOLENCE CASES KNOWN TO SERVICE PROVIDERS AND AS FOUND BY EPIDEMOLOGICAL SURVEYS Service Provider Data (An Intervention Rate) Epidemiological Data (A Prevalence Rate) Rate of Family Violence (Hypoth- etical ) WHY THIS HUGE INCREASE? Intervention effort – case finding WHY THE DECREASE NOW ? Decrease in prevalence is now greater than new case finding. WHY?

19. VF Trends19 WHY DOES THE PUBLIC THINK FAMILY VIOLENCE AND OTHER CRIME IS INCREASING? Rates did increase for 20 years Press coverage has increased Intervention rates taken as prevalence rates Advocacy groups for family violence victims continually talk about “epidemics” which public interprets as “increase” Rising public expectations for quality of life make the cases more disturbing

20. VF Trends20 MEDIA COVERAGE OFTEN MISREPRESENTS

21. VF Trends21 WHAT EXPLAINS THE DECREASE IN FAMILY VIOLENCE? NINE OF THE MANY PROCESSES

22. VF Trends22 EXPLANATION #1: THE CIVILIZATION EFFECT (N. Elias)

23. VF Trends23 EXPLANATION #2: INTERVENTIONS TO LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE Public awareness & education * Take Back The Night * TV dramas Hot lines Shelters Home visiting programs School abuse prevention programs Increased efforts at case detection by Pediatricians, Teachers, school nurses, others Presumptive arrest policy More Prosecution Batterer treatment programs Incarceration

24. VF Trends24 THE RESULT: THE TYPES OF FAMILY VIOLENCE THAT HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS OF PREVENTION EFFORTS DECREASED THE MOST

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26. VF Trends26 Steps to implement vary from almost none to very extensive

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28. VF Trends28 EXPLANATION #3: CULTURAL NORMS TOLERATING PARTNER ASSAULT HAVE CHANGED

29. VF Trends29 EXPLANATION #4: GREATER EQUALITY BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN

30. VF Trends30 EXPLANATION #5 CHANGES IN FAMILY COMPOSITION AND ORGANIZATION Later age at marriage Later age at first child (for people marring at the same age) Fewer children Greater acceptability of divorce WHY DO THESE CHANGES LOWER CHILD ABUSE AND PARTNER VIOLENCE

31. VF Trends31 WHY THESE CHANGES IN THE FAMILY CAN BE A MAJOR PART OF THE EXPLANATION

32. VF Trends32 PROBABILITY OF ASSAULTING A PARTNER BY PERCEIVED PROBABILITY OF BEING ARRESTED (Ramirez, 2003) EXPLANATION #6: THE RULE OF LAW COMES TO THE FAMILY NEW LAWS AND POLICE POLICY

33. VF Trends33 EXPLANATION #7 - DECREASE IN USE OF CORPORAL PUNISHMENT

34. VF Trends34 BETTER EDUCATED PARENTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO BELIEVE THAT "WHEN A BOY IS GROWING UP, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HIM TO HAVE A FEW FISTFIGHTS" IN 1968, 75% OF THE ADULT POPULATION AGREED 1995 GALLUP DISCIPLINE SURVEY (N=1000) CP\CHARTS\RATES\AGE95G2 EXPLANATION #8 BETTER EDUCATEDPO PULAT-ION EDUCATED PEOPLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO REALIZE THAT FEW THINGS HAVE SIMPLE CAUSES AND SIMPLE SOLUTIONS – LIKE HITTING

35. VF Trends35 EXPLANATION #9 LESS ECONOMIC STRESS

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37. VF Trends37 THESE ARE JUST NINE OF THE MANY INTERRELATED CHANGES MAKING FOR A LESS VIOLENT WORLD, INCLUDING LESS FAMILY VIOLENCE Historical trend away from personal violence Application of the rule of law to the family Change in cultural norms tolerating family violence Programs to end child abuse, wife beating, bullying Growth in equality between men and women Other changes in family composition and organization Decrease in use of corporal punishment Better educated population Less economic stress MANY OTHER FACTORS, for example, tremendous growth in family counseling and therapy OVERALL: The civilization effect

38. VF Trends38 THE FUTURE OF FAMILY VIOLENCE PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS ALWAYS RISKY Parking lots in New York ALL FORMS OF FAMILY VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE SAME REASONS AS THE PAST DECLINE THERE WILL BE UPS AND DOWNS AROUND THE TREND LINE Some groups may experience increases, such as those suffered by inner city families during the crack cocaine epidemic THE BENEFITS WILL BE ENORMOUS * For individuals, less: mental illness, unhappy marriages, divorce, higher IQ, more education, better job performance, etc, etc. * For society, Lower: rates of all types of crime, lower costs for criminal justice and welfare, higher economic productivity, etc. A HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER, AND WISER SOCIEITY

39. VF Trends39 END FOR SOC 695