1. BARACK OBAMA AND THE POLITICS OF HOPE (?)

2. RATIONALES FOR ALTERNATIVES U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America Importance of Latin America to U.S. Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

3. WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt –Or Self-centered national interest.

4. CONCEPTUAL ISSUES 1. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft.” 2. Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains. 3. Emphasis on war vs. peace. 4. Importance of democracy. 5. Value of international cooperation, institutions. 6. American power: extent vs. limits.

5. WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention— e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.” 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

6. And the outlook is…..?

7. THE OBAMA RECORD Exaggerated expectations Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Afghanistan) Hesitant beginnings (Trinidad & Tobago ≠ Cairo) Nuanced view of Latin America

8. TRAVEL AND PRIORITIES April 2009: –Mexico –Trinidad & Tobago (summit) March 2011: –Brazil –Chile –El Salvador June 2011: –El Salvador (OAS General Assembly)?

9. CURRENT ISSUES Honduras: questionable commitment to democracy Colombia: military bases Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo Points of tension: –Venezuela –Bolivia –“Pink tide” in general; incipient cooptation

10. HONDURAS 2005-06 Manuel Zelaya elected 2008Joins ALBA (and Hugo Chávez) 2009: 6/28 Ousted, Roberto Micheletti takes power 7/05Honduras suspended by OAS 11/29Porfirio Lobo elected (56.6% vote) 2010: JanMZ exile in Dominican Republic; Honduras withdraws from ALBA JulyU.S. urges readmission to OAS Aug Mexico, Chile extend recognition 2011:Lobo and Zelaya reach agreement on MZ’s return

11. BRAZIL Differences over Honduras, Cuba, Chávez Ties to Iran, diplomatic initiatives Trade: WTO suit, agricultural protectionism (e.g. sugar, oranges, ethanol) Perceptions of power, relationship Shift from Lula to Dilma Rousseff?

12. CUBA (2011) Restores Clinton emphasis on “people to people” contacts Embargo exemptions for humanitarian, religious, academic purposes More flights (chartered) Remittances of $500 per quarter Context: –Private market in Cuba, reduced role of state –Emergence of civil society –Republican takeover of House of Representatives –New generation of Cuban-Americans

13. USA and Latin America: Comparative and Historical Perspective _________Latin America as Priority___________ ______ Low _______ _______ High _____ Operational Mode for U.S. ____ Unilateral Ad hoc Systematic imposition intervention (Bush 2001-09) (Reagan 1981-89) ________________________ __________________ Intermittent, Consistent, Multilateral low-level high-level diplomacy engagement (Clinton 1993-2000) (Kennedy 1961-63) ____________________________________________________________

14. Rank-Order Preferences for U.S. Policy ___ Partners___ __Targets___ U.S. Policy (Mexico, (Cuba, __Rivals___ ___Bystanders__ __Configuration__ _Bush II__ __Colombia)__ __Venezuela)__ __(Brazil?)__ ___(Others)____ Low priority 1 4 2 1 4 + Unilateral Low priority 2 3 1 2 2 + Multilateral High priority 3 1 4 4 3 + Unilateral High priority 4 2 3 3 1 + Multilateral Note: As presented here, ordinal rankings mean that 1 stands for the first-place (most preferable) choice, 2 for the second-place choice, 3 for the third-place choice, and 4 for the fourth-place (least preferable) choice. Question: Where to place Obama?