2. Linking Trade, Climate Change and Food Security in East Africa
By Julien Grollier

3. The challenge ahead Food security Global warming Way forward
one of the main challenges in East Africa
Global warming
will change agricultural and trade patterns
add an additional 600 million hungry people by 2080 in sub-Saharan Africa
Way forward
Harnessing the potential of trade to ensure affordable food for millions of people
Putting in place appropriate policies to achieve this
Need of the hour
Develop understanding of how climate change, food security and trade interact

4. Food Security and Agriculture in East Africa
The region is
Has a huge potential and capacity to produce enough food for regional consumption and a large surplus for export to the world market
YET, it is
Heavily dependent on agriculture sector for revenue, employment and food security
Frequently affected by serious food shortages
Paradoxically, while 8 in 10 people rely on agriculture for their living, about 4 in 10 are undernourished
High variability in production due to high variability of weather (climate change)
Inadequate food trade between surplus and deficit areas
Low agricultural productivity
Price volatility
Land availability and access
8 in 10 East Africans depend on agriculture for their living
19%
31%
SOME CAUSES
38%
66%
44%
SHARE OF POPULATION UNDERNOURISHED IN EAC COUNTRIES

5. State of Food Security and Agriculture in East Africa
Some Indicators

6. Food Trade in East Africa
EVOLUTION OF EAC TRADE IN CEREALS ( )
EAC region is increasingly dependent on cereal imports.
Positive total Balance of Payment is due to production of export crops like tea, coffee, horticulture etc.
SHARE OF INTRAREGIONAL FOOD TRADE IN TOTAL
There is potential for much greater intra-regional food trade, particularly when it can contribute to better regional food security in the food scarce regions

7. Implications of climate change in the region
Expected impact of climate change in the region include:
More floods and droughts
Increased sea levels leading to changed ecology of coastal areas
Altered eco-systems of lakes leading to less fish catches
Less supportive conditions for the production of current staple food crops
Less agricultural and food production, leading to higher prices
Changes in patterns of production, including in fisheries, and hence changing patterns of trade
However, some specific studies indicate that the impact of climate change may be positive and negative depending on the crops.

8. Implications of climate change in the region
Climate change will change the pattern and magnitude of precipitation leading to changing patterns of production and trade.
The poor and marginalized, both rural and urban, are expected to face the worst consequences.
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY INDEX 2011
Source: Maplecroft

9. Trade: part of the solution ?
Opportunities for Food Security
Increased availability and affordability of staple food
Generation of export revenue from non-food products will facilitate food imports for food scarce regions
Increased livelihood options and demand for labour and business opportunities in transport, processing, trading, etc
Greater production efficiencies and lower prices for both urban and rural consumers.

10. Trade: part of the solution ?
Opportunities for Food Security
Niche export crops are labour intensive and create new livelihoods for poor producers despite climate change
WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) allows expenditure by developing country governments to maintain food security stocks (not treated as a subsidy)
Gradual liberalization of services in developing countries under GATS can facilitate the availability of better infrastructural services, thus improving competitiveness

11. Trade: part of the solution ?
Opportunities for Climate Change
trade can be part of the climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies
e.g, by encouraging trade in organic products, use of energy-efficient transportation, increasing regional trade etc.
trade can increase the availability of resources and technologies to plan and implement mitigation and adaptation policies
The linkages between trade and climate change are little understood and need to be investigated

12. Trade: Some challenges to be addressed
Subsidized food production in OECD countries are allowed by the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) and can depress international food prices
discourages investment in EAC food production
cheap food imports can displace domestic production, particularly by small and subsistence farmers.
Trade liberalization measures might lead to immediate increase in imports rather than exports

13. Trade: Some challenges to be addressed
Increased exports can disproportionately affect subsistence farmers, mostly women
Lower revenues through customs duties might reduce resources to deal with
food security challenges
climate change challenges
Higher volumes of trade can directly contribute to larger greenhouse gas emissions

14. Trade: Some challenges to be addressed
The linkages between trade and climate change are little understood and need to be investigated
No mandatory provision against export prohibitions in AoA, whereby a country willing to ensure domestic food security impacts that of other countries negatively
Strict global standards for patents and lack of protection of bio-diversity, genetic resources and traditional knowledge under the TRIPs Agreement
can potentially impede the transfer of required mitigation/adaptation technologies to EAC countries at affordable prices.

15. EAC Institutional and Policy framework
EAC countries are conscious of the challenges related to food security , climate change and trade. They have strived to develop regional policies to deal with them, including:
EAC Common Market Protocol, which entered into force in July It provides for free movement of labour, goods, services, capital, and the right of establishment within the EAC.
Preparations towards the establishment of an East African Monetary Union by 2012
The EAC Food Security Action Plan ( ), which serves as a guide to the implementation and actualization of the regional food security objective
The EAC Climate Change Policy, which is being implemented
A Climate Change Master Plan and Strategy is being prepared

16. Remaining gaps and Capacity Building Needs
No regional policy addresses all three issues in an inclusive manner
Limited capacity of the EAC Secretariat to comprehensively examine climate change, food security, and trade issues, and hence to develop adequate and holistic policy responses in consultation with relevant stakeholders
Region-wide, multi-stakeholder networks (comprising governmental, private sector, civil society, and academia representatives from all EAC countries) that are crucial for this endeavour have not been fully developed

17. Remaining gaps and Capacity Building Needs
Although EAC countries are active participants in international trade and are members of the WTO, they do not formally coordinate their negotiating positions
More regular participation of EAC Secretariat in UNFCCC meetings will greatly help in coordination of EAC countries’ positions and hence improving their negotiating strength

18. Thank You