1. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.271/10 Seastedt, T. R., R. J. Hobbs, et al. (2008). Management of novel ecosystems: are novel approaches required? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6(10): 547-553. Garmestani et al. (2009) Panarchy: discontinuities reveal similarities in the dynamic system structure of ecological and social systems. Ecology & Society 14(1): 15 PANARCHYPANARCHY and

2. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.272/10 What is panarchy? “ Panarchy is a complex and controversial framework for describing ecosystem and human system dynamics and interactions” – The Sustainable Scale Project “The term [panarchy] was coined as an antithesis to the word hierarchy (literally, sacred rules). Our view is that panarchy is a framework of nature's rules, hinted at by the name of the Greek god of nature, Pan.” - Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling, Panarchy: Understanding 0Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature, Island Press, p.21, 2001. A panarchy is a nested set of adaptive cycles operating at discrete scales (Gunderson and Holling 2001; Fig. 2).

3. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.273/10 Allen’s definition: It is a framework for understanding the evolution and interplay between complex systems. -Across scales -- through time. 1. Across scales – Panarchy implies a imbedded hierarchy of complex systems

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6. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.275/10 2. Within a single scale / system: A four-step process MetaphorPanarchyBiologicalPsychologicalEconomic 1ExploitationBirthDevelopmentGrowth 2ConservationMaturitySanityConsolidate 3ReleaseDeathMadnessCollapse 4ReorganizationDecayHealingRebuild The exploitation stage is one of rapid expansion, as when a population finds a fertile niche in which to grow. The conservation stage is one in which slow accumulation and storage of energy and material is emphasized as when a population reaches carrying capacity and stabilizes for a time. The release occurs rapidly, as when a population declines due to a competitor, or changed conditions Reorganization can also occur rapidly, as when certain members of the population are selected for their ability to survive despite the competitor or changed conditions that triggered the release.

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8. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.277/10 And then these cycles connect with cycles ‘above’ and ‘below’ them in the hierarchy:: “Revolt" – this occurs when fast, small events overwhelm large, slow ones, as when a small fire in a forest spreads to the crowns of trees, then to another patch, and eventually the entire forest “Remember" – this occurs when the potential accumulated and stored in the larger, slow levels influences the reorganization. For example, after a forest fire the processes and resources accumulated at a larger level slow the leakage of nutrients, and options for renewal draw from the seed bank, physical structures and surrounding species that form a biotic legacy.

9. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.278/10 Adaptive Cycles The four stages of the adaptive cycle described above (analogous to birth, growth and maturation, death and renewal), have three properties that determine the dynamic characteristics of each cycle: Potential sets the limits to what is possible - the number and kinds of future options available (e.g. high levels of biodiversity provide more future options than low levels) Connectedness determines the degree to which a system can control its own destiny through internal controls, as distinct from being influenced by external variables (e.g. temperature regulation in warm blooded animals, which involves five different physiological mechanisms, is an example of high connectedness) Resilience determines how vulnerable a system is to unexpected disturbances and surprises that can exceed or break that control (see below for more details). The adaptive cycle is the process that accounts for both the stability and change in complex systems. It periodically generates variability and novelty, either internally such as through genetic mutations or adaptation, or by accumulating resources that change the internal dynamics of an ecosystem. These changes are the triggers for experimentation. In the reorganization stage various experiments are tested and resources are reorganized in new configurations, some of which enter a new exploitation stage to repeat the cycle.

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11. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.2711/10 Garmestani et al. (2009) Panarchy: discontinuities reveal similarities in the dynamic system structure of ecological and social systems. Ecology & Society 14(1): 15 Summary of: The authors set out to test one of the predictions of Panarchy theory It predicts that there should be ‘discontinuities’ in variables of interest Since each ‘panarchy process’ generates it’s own ‘scale’ of effects. They review a bunch of examples – mammals, birds, plankton etc. This is now called ‘discontinuity analysis’. Kirsty L. Nash, Craig R. Allen, David G. Angeler, Chris Barichievy, Tarsha Eason, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Dean Granholm, Melinda Knutson, R. John Nelson, Magnus Nyström, Craig A. Stow, and Shana M. Sundstrom 2014. Discontinuities, cross-scale patterns, and the organization of ecosystems. Ecology 95:654–667. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-1315.1http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-1315.1

12. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.271/10 Allen, Craig R., et al. "Panarchy: Theory and Application." Ecosystems 17.4 (2014): 578-589. Other ‘testables’:

13. CAS: PanarchyAllen Larocque 14.10.2712/10 Conversation Questions: 1.How do we test this? Is discontinuity analysis enough, or might other processes than panarchy explain groupings? 2.What other predictions might it make? 3.Panarchy theory has (I think) a beautiful and elegant structure. Is it ‘satisfying’ as a theory? Is this enough? 4.How can this inform management? 5.How can we use it in our own science?