1. Food Security and the Future for Agriculture in a Water, Carbon and Energy Constrained World Victorian Agribusiness Summit, August 5-6, 2009 Prof. Timothy G. Reeves FTSE

5. FOOD SECURITY 850 million

6. Food security – Driving Forces Short-term, e.g., GFC; Weather Longer-term – Demand Longer-term - Supply

11. Climate change Warmer, drier More variability More extreme events Historical records?

12. Australian temperatures

15. Atmospheric CO 2 and Deuterium Temperature Anomalies over the Past 420,000 Years (Vostok Ice Core Data) 150 200 250 300 350 -10-505 Deuterium-based Temperature Anomalies, °C Deglaciations Glaciations Atmospheric pCO 2,  atm. IGBP 2000 400 Year 2007 385 ppm

17. Food crisis – declining stocks CIMMYT ® www.cimmyt.org Source: J. Dixon 2008

18. The Crisis: World Commodity Prices (Jan. 2000-Apr. 2008)

19. Source: Worldwatch Institute 2006 and 2008 Ethanol: > 90% of biofuel production; Brazil and US are 90% ethanol market Biodiesel: EU accounts for 90% of production World ethanol and bio-diesel production, 1975-2006 (billion liters)

20. FOSSIL FUEL - THE REAL SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE? Demand exceed production by 2010 U.S. 400 gallons oil/equiv/year to feed 1 person –31% fertilizer production –19% machinery use (field) –16% transport –13% irrigation (1Kg N  1.4 to 1.8 litres of diesel)

21. SUSTAINABILITY Less input-intensive Input-use efficiency Stress tolerance

23. Market Demographics Opportunities and challenges BRIC Economies Traditional Markets Livestock Biofuels Carbon

24. Energy/carbon farming Carbon sequestration –Soils –Vegetation Emissions/mitigation –Animals –Fertilizer –Fuel

25. Carbon Farming Carbon sequestration 9.1 m ha – potentially forestry $ 1.9 b C (25% national emissions) Source: B. Keating 2008

26. MaizeWheatRice Group'67-'96'97-'06 '67-'96'97-'06 '67-'96'97-'06 (percentage annual growth) Developed2.81.61.40.51.10.5 Developing2.51.52.71.42.20.9 World2.71.62.20.92.10.8 Average Yield Growth Rate, 1967-1996 and 1997-2006 Source: FAOSTAT 2007

27. Australian Competitiveness – meeting the needs Investment New technologies Efficiency and organization

28. AGRICULTURE IN BRAZIL RankingProjected Coffee11 Sugar cane11 Orange juice11 Beef21-2 Soybeans21 Maize21 Poultry21-2

30. Technology 1.8 to 3.5% productivity increase Supply chain Landscapes Communities

32. Unique Australian model CRCs Rural R&D Corporations Farmer leadership

33. Australian Farms 2020 Fewer, larger farms Diversification – on farm/off farm –Energy –Carbon Export emphasis, productivity, technologies Participation in supply chains Emphasis on sustainability, quality assurance, production certification, identity preservation, environmental amenity, supply chain management, food safety Contract services Land ownership and land management Labour-labour saving Source: Ross Kingwell 2008

34. The Future Sustainable intensification Precision agriculture Conservation agriculture Land and water Global connectivity NOT ‘business as usual’