1. The Role of Chance Finding an Explanation

2. “The human understanding supposes a greater degree of order and equality in things than it really finds; and although many things in nature be sui generis and most irregular, will yet invest parallels and conjugates and relatives where no such thing exists.” —Francis Bacon

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5. Debate III - Potential Topics 1.It is better to see too many regularities than too few. 2.Thought experiments provide useful insights that empirical studies cannot provide. 3.A lot of imagination is needed to succeed in research. 4.With enough data, a researcher can overcome an existing mindset and generate a better hypothesis. 5.In research, good observational skills are more important than extensive knowledge. 6.Creativity is better generated by breadth of knowledge than by depth of knowledge. 7.Anything can be given a useful visualization. 8.It is usually best to consider only two alternatives at a time. 9.Any intuitive ability can be further improved by practice. 10.Science is doomed to keep rejecting hypotheses that are too different from the existing ones.

6. Interaction with Industry Basic vs Applied Science Commonly believed there are two kinds of science: Or a bias to view basic science as “better” 1.Basic (theoretical) science - important in the academic world - unimportant in the “real” world 2. Applied science - important in the “real” world - unimportant in the academic world Often a bias to view applied science as “better”…

7. However, the two are connected.

8. “People with little understanding fail to observe the mysterious threads that bind the factory to the laboratory, just as the stream is connected with its source”. —Ramon y Cajal 1. Basic discoveries often give rise to applications. - e.g. physics, CS  computer industry

9. 2. Applications often give rise to basic discoveries - e.g., Pasteur investigated source of problems with wine Investigation led to discovery of many biological, phenomena, and even overturned a central dogma of biology (spontaneous generation of life) Research motivated by practical problems Results affect theoretical understanding - e.g., Investigated why drivers “look but fail to see”. Investigation led to discovery of change blindness, and better understanding of how we see scenes; overturned previous beliefs about this

10. Note: Many problems in Cognitive Systems areas are of this kind In general, problems encountered in industry can be the source of new discoveries in basic science. - tests done by engineers are a kind of experiment - can provide interesting data

11. Conventional way of viewing science: - basic vs applied = position along one dimension But maybe better to view in terms of two dimensions - basic: degree to which work affects theories - applied: degree to which work affects applications

12. Brief History: Interaction of Basic & Applied ≤ c. 1840 - basic:“natural philosophy” (abstract theory) - applied:“craftwork” (early technology) - interaction: little/none c. 1840-1940 - basic:“science” (some derived from technology) - applied:“engineering” (technology) - interaction: mostly applied -> basic ≥ c. 1940 - basic:“basic science” (“pure science”) - applied:“applied science” (advanced technology) - interaction: applied -> basic and basic -> applied