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Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director Congressional Budget Office February 25, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director Congressional Budget Office February 25, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Health Care Forecasting Conference James Baumgardner Deputy Assistant Director Congressional Budget Office February 25, 2010

2 CBO Baseline Not a forecast of the future. Assumes that current law remains unchanged. Consistent with CBO’s job of scoring proposals relative to current law. Special treatment of discretionary spending.

3 CBO Baseline Assumptions Tax provisions expire as scheduled. No modification of the Alternative Minimum Tax. Discretionary spending grows with inflation. No fix of Medicare physician payment.

4 Budget Outlook Under Current Policies 2010-2020 (In billions of dollars)

5 Budget Outlook Under Current Policies 2010-2020 (As a percentage of GDP)

6 Annual Unemployment Rate, 1950 to 2020 Source: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent

7 Revenues and Outlays as a Share of GDP, 1970 to 2020 Percentage of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office

8 The Total Deficit or Surplus as a Share of GDP, 1970 to 2020 Percentage of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office

9 The Budgetary Effects of Policy Alternatives Not Included in CBO’s Baseline (January 2010) (Billions of Dollars) Note: Additional debt service included in alternatives. Source: Congressional Budget Office

10 Medicare Baselines: Net Outlays, 2010-2020 Average Annual Increase: 7.0% (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office

11 Medicaid Baselines: Mandatory Outlays, 2010-2020 Average Annual Increase: 5.0% (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office

12 H.R. 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act Mandate on individuals to obtain insurance Medicaid expansion Subsidies for individual purchase through exchanges (includes DHHS public plan) Penalty payments on non-offering employers Reductions in the growth of Medicare payment rates Income tax surcharge on high-income people

13 H.R. 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office

14 H.R. 3962: Affordable Health Care for America Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office

15 H.R. 3590 – Senate Amendment 2786: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Mandate on individuals to obtain insurance Medicaid expansion Subsidies for individual purchase through exchanges (OPM contracts with “multi- state” plans) Reductions in the growth of Medicare payment rates (and establish Independent Payment Advisory Board) Excise tax on high-premium health plans Payroll tax increase on high-income people

16 H.R. 3590 – Senate Amendment 2786: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office Note: Based on CBO analysis of December 19, 2009.

17 H.R. 3590 – Senate Amendment 2786: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Billions of Dollars) Source: Congressional Budget Office Note: Based on CBO analysis of December 19, 2009.

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