1. Strength Down Centre? Ontario’s Evolving Self-Image in the Federation Jack Jedwab Association for Canadian Studies July-August 2009

2. 2 Methodology A survey of 1511 Canadians, with an over sample in Ontario of 583, were done by web panel during the week of May 28 th – June 4 th, 2009. The survey was commissioned by the Association for Canadian Studies (ACS) from the firm Leger Marketing. A probabilistic random sample of the same size would yield a maximum margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

3. 3 Introduction Late last year, it was announced that Ontario, long considered the economic engine of Canada, would receive federal equalization payments for the first time in its history. Ontario has also been experiencing difficulty in its manufacturing industry for some time now, and is particularly hard-hit by the recession. In addition, the Ontario government has been very vocal about Ontario receiving less financial transfers from the federal government than it is entitled to, as well as the issue of Ontario’s under- representation in the House of Commons. Though a majority of Ontarians continue to be largely satisfied on various indicators used to measure regional discontent, it is striking that increasing numbers of Ontarians feel their province is not treated with respect, lacks influence over national decisions, is not benefiting from Canadian federalism, and, most significantly, has insufficient fiscal capacity to fulfill its responsibilities. Over the past few years, regional discontent regarding Canadian federalism has risen more sharply in Ontario than anywhere else.

4. 4 10 - year trend on whether the federal system is advantageous. Source: CRIC, EKOS, ACS, PCO ACS polls from 2009 confirm the declining trend across Canada

5. 5 Key Questions What explains the increase in regional discontent among Ontarians? –Does this increase represent a fundamental shift involving a re-questioning of Ontario’s place in Confederation or is it a more cyclical, perhaps temporary phenomenon linked to the recession, Ontario’s new status as a have-not province, and the Ontario government’s “fairness” campaign? –How much of increasing regional discontent is an Ontario-specific trend, how much of it is a reflection of a pan-Canadian trend, and how much of it might be linked to broader global trends of citizen disaffection with a perceived democratic deficit? How do Ontarians view Ontario’s place in the federation? –Perception of Ontario’s role, status, treatment, outlook, identity? ‘Captain Canada’ leadership role or Ontario-first provincial interests and orientation/approach? Conception of Canada? Federal? Multinational? Unitary? Main source(s) of identity? Is there a distinctive Ontarian identity? Preferred balance of federal-provincial powers? Which level of government do Ontarians look to for leadership on key issues? Heartland/economic engine of Canada or economically disadvantaged region? Is Ontarians’ image of Ontario indicative of changing economic conditions? Or does a cultural paradigm better explain Ontario’s self-image than does an economic paradigm? –How have these views evolved over time? –How do these views compare to the image that Canadians in other provinces have of their province? –What do Ontarians think of the role, status, treatment, outlook, identity of other provinces and does this perception shape the way Ontario positions itself? –How do Canadians in other provinces see Ontario? What does this analysis tell us regarding Ontarians’ overall attitudes towards Canadian federalism, as well as the rest of Canada’s views regarding Ontario?

6. 6 Demographics The survey contains an over-sample for Ontario (+600) and a breakout of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in order to pinpoint where trends are emerging from. Relevant data is presented as both a demographic cross-section (by occupation, language, income and age cohorts), as well as by province/region. Doing so helps us to analyse trends at a micro level, in addition to a cross-national evaluation. Several Ontario-only and Ontario-specific questions were posed in order to elicit the broadest range of responses to the issue of growing discontent. In this same light, we asked for open-ended responses on the question of “Why is my province not treated with the respect it deserves in Canada?” and obtained fifty (50) unique responses!

7. 7 Highlights Part 1 Ontario Ontarians and the State of the Federation Ontarians still the most likely to think that their province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada - but this is declining over time. Only Ontario has dipped in the last 6 months; continuing it’s downward progression Ontarians more likely to think they have given up most for the good of Canada, rest of Canada most likely to think they benefited most Majority of Ontarians still believe federalism has more advantages Snapshot view of Ontario reveals that even though most support federalism, significant numbers feel that fairness is lacking; Ontarians divided around focusing more on their own needs and respect which with they are treated by the ROC Those who agree that Ontarians can no longer worry about ROC feel less respected in Canada and are somewhat less certain about federal advantage Those Fearing more dependence on ROC feel less respected and perhaps paradoxically also worry less about the rest of Canada Those feeling it is time to worry less about the ROC much more likely to agree Ontario should get more Though on a lesser scale even those feeling the need to worry les about ROC still put Canada’s interests first; those feeling more dependent also think Ontario gives more than it gets Ontarians think their contribution to Federation not recognized, they’re taken for granted and others jealous of their importance

8. 8 Highlights Part 1 Ontario (Contd.) Significant gender disparity in terms of respect accorded to Ontario While more vulnerable Ontarians think its time to worry more about province But more vulnerable Ontarians also think federalism has more advantages Higher Earners contend national economy still depends on Ontario’s health Youth and Lower earners feel Ontario growing more dependent Youth less inclined to agree there is lack of fairness to Ontario Torontonians more likely to favor unitary vision of Canada; GTA also assigns somewhat greater role to municipal government as regards cultural diversity GTA sees more advantages than ROO when it comes to federalism; also think Canadian economy more dependent on Ontario GTA thinks Ontario should get more benefits from Federation

9. 9 Highlights Part 2 The State of the Federation With Respect to the Provinces Maritimes most likely to think they do not get adequate support from Feds Quebecers believe they’re ignored, they receive less than other provinces and French fact not appreciated Manitoba and Saskatchewan most likely to cite that Federal government is more likely to favor bigger provinces Albertans believe they give more than they get. British Columbians think too much focus on Quebec and Ontario Identities: Required and Relative responses When required to choose with what they most identify, Canada tops list everywhere except Quebec; World and province compete for second spot When forced to choose between Canadian and provincial interests with exception of Quebec most would choose Canada; Only in Ontario however would majority do so Equal Provinces Idea no longer attractive; Quebec sees Canada as multinational, ROC as many 33 million equals

10. 10 Highlights Part 2 The State of the Federation (Contd.) Canada’s Regions: Equally Treated Unequally? Only majority of Ontarians think people in the rest of Canada don’t care West thinks East doesn’t care. East doesn’t agree Most agree with the rest of Canada that people outside of Quebec don’t care about the province Maritimers most likely to think others favored, Quebecers and BC least likely to think so. Western provinces think Ontario is the best treated; Ontario thinks its Quebec followed by West Outside of Quebec there is little appetite for constitutional recognition of Quebec difference Outside West not great appetite for action on Western alienation Provincial and Federal Roles A quarter of Ontarians think the Federal Govt. should have more power (highest in Canada) and less than a third think the Provincial govt. should have more power (lowest in Canada) Most Canadians agree provincial governments should have power Majority of Canadians think federal government best equipped to deal with economy and climate change All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal with economic issues Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with health care especially Quebec All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal with climate change Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with crime and public safety except Ontario and Alberta which believe municipalities best positioned to do so Majority of Quebecers think that province is best positioned to deal with cultural diversity, BC divided between province and federal government and rest of Canada believes federal government best positioned to do so

11. 11 Executive Summary

12. 12 Respecting Ontario’s Contributions An analyses of the data set showed that the increasing regional discontent does not appear to be Ontario specific even though, in comparison with ACS’ January 2009 survey, the results from June reveal a very slight decline in the extent to which Ontarians believe their province is treated with respect. And even though Ontarians sense that their province is treated with the respect it deserves has declined over time, this reflects a broader Canadian trend and is not specific to the province. Hence, since we have surmised based on the previous surveys that such sentiment is likely connected to the economic situation, it may indeed be a temporary phenomenon. It is also worth keeping in mind that despite the province’s growing economic vulnerability, a majority of its population is still believes that the province is treated with respect.

13. 13 Exploring Ontario’s Role and Image Though Ontarians still believe they have a special leadership role to play in the federation and are its principal driver, there is a growing concern on the part of the population with the province’s economic vulnerability. A narrow majority of Ontarians feel that Ontario is becoming more dependant economically on the rest of Canada and that Ontarians can no longer afford to worry about the rest of Canada, as it time to focus on their own needs. Ontarians continue to view themselves as playing a central role the federation and the preferred vision of the country held by the majority is one with 33 million equal citizens, with a significant minority agreeing that Canada is multinational.

14. 14 Ontario’s Place in the Federation Ontarians are the least likely to think that the provinces should have more power and roughly divided in three between the province having more power, keeping the status quo and giving more power to the federal government. That position is better reconciled with the preferences as to which level of government is best positioned to address various issues. Despite a desire in each of the provinces for the provincial government to have more power, when it comes to such issues as the economy and the environment, it is widely agreed that the federal government is best positioned to address such matters. Ontarians are most likely to believe this.

15. 15 PART I Ontarians and the State of the Federation

16. 16 DUPLICATE SLIDE

17. 17 Is Your Province Treated With Respect? 1998-2009 (June), by Region People who responded YES to the question: In your opinion, is your province/territory treated with the respect it deserves in Canada or not?” Sources: CRIC, EKOS, ACS-Leger Only Ontario has dipped in the last 6 months; continuing it’s downward progression

18. 18 Ontarians more likely to think they have given up most for the good of Canada, rest of Canada most likely to think they benefited most Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

19. 19 Majority of Ontarians still believe federalism has more advantages Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

20. 20 Snapshot view of Ontario reveals that even though most support federalism, significant numbers feel that fairness is lacking; Ontarians divided around focusing more on their own needs and respect which with they are treated by the ROC

21. 21 Those who agree that Ontarians can no longer worry about ROC feel less respected in Canada and are somewhat less certain about federal advantage Ontarians can no longer afford to worry about the rest of Canada AgreeDisagree Agree My province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada 4862.1 My province is treated with the respect it deserves by Canadians in other parts of the country 45.562.2 People in other parts of Canada do nor care about Ontario 64.552.9 Ontario has generally played a special leadership role in the federation 9185 All things considered federalism has more advantages than disadvantages for Ontario 55.669.2

22. 22 Those Fearing more dependence on ROC feel less respected and perhaps paradoxically also worry less about the rest of Canada Fear that Ontario is becoming economically dependent on the rest of Canada AgreeDisagree Agree My province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada 44.665.4 My province is treated with the respect it deserves by Canadians in other parts of the country 46.562 People in other parts of Canada do nor care about Ontario 68.948.6 Ontario has generally played a special leadership role in the federation 91.182.4 Ontarians can no longer afford to worry about the rest of Canada 58.745

23. 23 Those feeling it is time to worry less about the ROC much more likely to agree Ontario should get more

24. 24 Though on a lesser scale even those feeling the need to worry les about ROC still put Canada’s interests first; those feeling more dependent also think Ontario gives more than it gets

25. 25 Ontarians think their contribution to Federation not recognized, they’re taken for granted and others jealous of their importance Why do you feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? ON Total  Everyone hates Ontario / Everyone is bashing Ontario 12.5%4.2%  The attitude of the Conservative government / The attitude of the Harper government 3.5%1.2%  Ontario is the wealthiest province in Canada / Ontario is the economic engine of Canada 11.0%3.7%  Ontario contributes a lot on the federal level / contributes a lot to support other provinces but gets less or no tax transfers in return 18.0%6.0%  Ontario's needs are minimized / Ontario is perceived as a "Have " province when it's a "Have not" province / Ontario is still portrayed as a rich province though it has been hit hard by the recession 19.2%6.4%  Regional divisions in Canada / Regional rivalries ( West Vs East) 3.5%1.2%  According to what I've heard from other Canadians 3.1%1.0%  According to what I've seen, read or heard in the media 1.6%.5%  The province of Quebec is treated better 3.5%1.2%  The impression that federal power is concentrated in Ontario 2.7%.9%  Ontario is perceived as arrogant / Impression that Ontario and Ontarians have a superiority complex 3.1%1.0% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

26. 26 Significant gender disparity in terms of respect accorded to Ontario Source: ACS-Leger Poll June 2009 Women Men Women

27. 27 While more vulnerable Ontarians think its time to worry more about province Source: ACS -Leger June 2009

28. 28 But more vulnerable Ontarians also think federalism has more advantages Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

29. 29 Higher Earners contend national economy still depends on Ontario’s health Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

30. 30 Youth and Lower earners feel Ontario growing more dependent Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

31. 31 Youth less inclined to agree there is lack of fairness to Ontario Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

32. 32 Torontonians more likely to favor unitary vision of Canada; GTA also assigns somewhat greater role to municipal government as regards cultural diversity

33. 33 GTA sees more advantages than ROO when it comes to federalism; also think Canadian economy more dependent on Ontario

34. 34 GTA thinks Ontario should get more benefits from Federation

35. 35 PART II With Respect to the Provinces

36. 36 DUPLICATE SLIDE

37. 37 Maritimes most likely to think they do not get adequate support from Feds Why do you feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? ATLANTIC Total  Maritime provinces are poor provinces / They are considered as "Have not" / They're considered as welfare provinces 8.7%.8%  Maritime provinces don't get enough support from the federal government 18.8%1.7%  Much effort is put into Central and West Canada / Bigger provinces 7.2%.7%  Maritime provinces are not considered as important / Maritime provinces are not considered as a priority 13.0%1.2%  Many broken promises / Failure to live up to many obligations / Backing out form the Atlantic Accord 15.9%1.4%  The Maritime provinces are not well known in the rest of Canada 2.9%.3%  Negative comments from Steven Harper / From the conservatives 2.9%.3% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

38. 38 Quebecers believe they’re ignored, they receive less than other provinces and French fact not appreciated Why do you feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? QCTotal  Because of the French factor / Because of the French language 13.9%3.7%  The attitude of the Conservative government towards Quebec / The attitude of the Harper government towards Quebec 6.9%1.8%  The province of Quebec is often neglected / The province of Quebec is often ignored / Nothing is done for Quebec 16.8%4.4%  Other provinces receive more in tax transfers from the federal government than Quebec / Quebec receives less than other provinces 11.4%3.0%  There has always been a fundamental difference between Quebec and the rest of Canada / Quebec has always been different from the rest of Canada. 6.9%1.8%  The province of Quebec is often perceived as a separatist province / Quebeckers are often perceived as separatists 1.5%.4%  The province of Quebec is not respected 6.4%1.7%  Ottawa has too much power over Quebec 3.5%.9%  We are highly taxed 3.5%.9%  Because of the fiscal imbalance / The needs are in Quebec but the money is in Ottawa.5%.1%  Quebec contributes a lot on the federal level / contributes a lot to support other provinces but gets less or no tax transfers in return 1.5%.4%  Quebec is not recognized as a different province although it is / Quebec is not recognized as a distinct province 5.0%1.3%  Feeling of injustice / We're treated differently if we're from Quebec 2.0%.5% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

39. 39 Manitoba and Saskatchewan most likely to cite that Federal government is more likely to favor bigger provinces Why do you feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? MB/SKTotal  Because of our small population we don't have strong representation in government 13.4%1.2%  Too much focus on populated provinces (Alberta, Quebec, B.C., Ontario) 22.4%2.0%  Incorrect distribution of funds / Unfair distribution of funds 6.0%.5%  We are thought of poorly / Negative stereotypes 9.0%.8%  We are largely ignored by the federal government / Last priority for the government 16.4%1.4%  We got shafted by the Harper government / The Tories broke many campaign promises 3.0%.3%  We pay high taxes and don't get the help we need for our aboriginals 3.0%.3%  Conservative government doesn't want to work with Socialist NDP government 1.5%.1% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

40. 40 Albertans believe they give more than they get. Why do you feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? ABTotal  We're known as rednecks / Texas North 8.1%.8%  We send our equalization payments and don't get much in return 20.3%2.0%  Despite Alberta's large economic contribution they don't have much representation due to small population / Demographics 12.2%1.2%  Our main commodity is put down by the rest of Canada 9.5%.9%  All the focus is on Quebec and Ontario 5.4%.5%  Quebec and Ontario don't understand the west / resent the west 4.1%.4%  None of the provinces treat each other with respect 1.4%.1%  Inequality of transfer payments 8.1%.8%  We subsidize Quebec so much and they still whine and complain 2.7%.3%  The west is neglected / not considered important 13.5%1.3% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

41. 41 British Columbians think too much focus on Quebec and Ontario Why do you feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? BCTotal  All the focus is on the east (Quebec and Ontario) 37.4%4.8%  Don't have a say in government because of smaller population / Poor representation in government because of small population 10.1%1.3%  We have corrupt politicians / Politicians care only about lining their pockets 3.0%.4%  We send our equalization payments and don't get much in return 3.0%.4%  Distance to Ottawa is too great and as such we are forgotten 7.1%.9%  No government help in B.C. / Not enough tax dollars spent in B.C. 5.1%.7%  We are not highly regarded by the east where the government operates / Ignored by the government 9.1%1.2% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

42. 42 Summary and Conclusions The preceding analysis tries to argue that Ontarians are certainly concerned with the economic situation and the survey also suggests that there has been an impact on the province’s self image. But it is difficult to draw strong conclusions around whether other province’s self-image has shifted as a consequence of the economic decline as some of the questions posed represent the first time the inquiry has been conducted in this manner. It is worth noting that across the country there is a tendency that no one’s province is getting a fair shake and many readily point to another province that they believe to be getting a better deal. More often than not, Ontario is often singled out (particularly in the West) as the province that is getting the best deal. There is a degree of symmetry in the perceptions that Ontarians have of the rest of Canada and the rest of Canada has of Ontario. One might say that there is a widespread sentiment that regions are equally treated unequally. And even though Ontarians may express more concern with their present condition, they do not appear to desire any major change to the federation. In effect, the provincial government does not appear to be the place around which Ontarians are looking for solutions or strong leadership to deal with their economic vulnerability.

43. 43 Supplementary Sections

44. 44 PART III Identities: Required and Relative responses

45. 45 When required to choose with what they most identify, Canada tops list everywhere except Quebec; World and province compete for second spot With which group do you identify the most ? WorldCanadaProvinceCity Language Community Ethnic Community or Visible Minority GroupNone Atlantic 7%64%13%2% 1%7% QC16.9%20%43.9%8.9%3.9% 4.7% ON13.7%61.1%6.7%9.1%1.2%1%3.9% MB/SK9%64%19%1% - 2% AB16%53.8%17.3%5.1%0.6% 5.8% BC16.8%44.1%15.3%5%0%1%10.4% Total14.3%48.6%19.1%7%1.6%0.7%5.4%

46. 46 When forced to choose between Canadian and provincial interests with exception of Quebec most would choose Canada; Only in Ontario however would majority do so Source: ACS-Leger 2009

47. 47 Equal Provinces Idea no longer attractive; Quebec sees Canada as multinational, ROC as many 33 million equals Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

48. 48 PART IV Canada’s Regions: Equally Treated Unequally?

49. 49 Only majority of Ontarians think people in the rest of Canada don’t care Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

50. 50 West think East doesn’t care. East doesn’t agree Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

51. 51 Most agree with the rest of Canada that people outside of Quebec don’t care about the province Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

52. 52 Maritimers most likely to think others favored, Quebecers and BC least likely to think so.

53. 53 Western provinces think Ontario is the best treated; Ontario thinks its Quebec followed by West 1 st Mention Which region receives the most favorable treatment? Western CanadaOntarioQuebec Atlantic Canada I don't know/I prefer not answering Atlantic 21%35%26%7%11% QC 54.8%23.3%5.3%1.8%14.8% ON 30.2%14.7%41.2%5.0%8.9% MB/SK 3%60%31% - 6% AB 5.8%73.0%17.5% - 3.6% BC 6.3%69.4%21.9% - 2.5%

54. 54 Outside of Quebec there is little appetite for constitutional recognition of Quebec difference Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

55. 55 Outside West not great appetite for action on Western alienation

56. 56 PART V Provincial and Federal Roles

57. 57 A quarter of Ontarians think the Federal Govt. should have more power (highest in Canada) and less than a third think the Provincial govt. should have more power (lowest in Canada)

58. 58 Most Canadians agree provincial governments should have power

59. 59 Majority of Canadians think federal government best equipped to deal with economy and climate change Source: ACS-Leger June 2009

60. 60 All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal with economic issues

61. 61 Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with health care especially Quebec

62. 62 All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal with climate change

63. 63 Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with crime and public safety except Ontario and Alberta which believe municipalities best positioned to do so

64. 64 Majority of Quebecers think that province is best positioned to deal with cultural diversity, BC divided between province and federal government and rest of Canada believes federal government best positioned to do so