1. 1 Outline  Overview of modelling activities in WP8, WP9 and WP10 for the first year  Time line of operational work  The regional/shelf modelling approach: general concept  The data exchange protocols

2. 2 The main operational and pre-operational periods March 1, 2003 PRE-TOP Sept 1, 2004Feb 1, 2004 01824 TOP SVP-Scientific Validation period

3. 3 WP8+WP9+WP10 main points for first twelve months  WP8: –Continuation of MFSPP forecasting activities with SYS2: MOM 1/8x1/8x31 + Mark II SOFA implementation MFSTEP OGCM ( OPA 1/16x1/16x71 levels and large Atlantic box) interannual runs –Mark III SOFA implementation with MFSTEP OGCM- SYS3  WP9: –Configuration of regional models: initial condition from SYS2 –Interface with ECMWF MFSPP atmo. forcing and LAM atmospheric forcing –Implementation of Variational Initialization on SYS3 –Configuration of shelf models and advanced implementations  WP10 –Configuration of LAMs for three Mediterranean areas –Data transfer protocols –Intercomparison/scientific validation experiments

4. 4 The forecasting system: atmospheric forcing and lateral boundary conditions

5. 5 Regional modeling approach for forecasting (Task 9100)  Regional models, except Adriatic, will run on ‘slave’ mode, i.e., re-initialized once a week  Once a week they should receive lateral boundary conditions as daily mean values from OGCM (to start, later we will see if 12 hr averages are possible)  Open ocean boundary conditions: same as developed in MFSPP  Surface air-sea interaction vertical boundary conditions: 3 solutions –1)Use bulk formulas with surface atmospheric parameters from LAM: see later –2)Use mixed heat flux boundary conditions: radiative balance from LAM and turbulent fluxes recomputed –3)Use the momentum, heat and salt fluxes from OGCM forecast  Initial condition adjustment control for regional forecast: –VI method – dynamical correction –Some days spin-up (POC- two weeks, DFMR- three days) with LAM analysis/OGCM lateral forcing- kinematical adjustment  Regional forecasting network design –Web Bulletin to be disseminated on the basis of the OGCM template (CLU work) –ftp site for the rapid downloading of fields  SVP for LAM-RegionalOceanModel coupling: Jan 1-31 2003  To be provide by middle of JUNE 2003: –Description of model set up (hor & vert resolution, domain, physics) –List of model experiments to be done –Model Interface Manual (similar to OGCM sample)

6. 6 Shelf modeling approach (Task 9100)  Revise or implement new model shelf domains  For new shelf models, start experiments with perpetual year forcing (UAT server)  Shelf models will run on ‘slave’ mode, i.e., re-initialized once a week  Once a week they should receive lateral boundary conditions as daily mean values from regional models  Open ocean boundary conditions: same as developed in MFSPP or others  Surface air-sea interaction vertical boundary conditions: as for the regional models  Initial condition adjustment control for regional forecast: as in regional models  Shelf forecasting network design –Web (template released) dissemination on the basis of the OGCM template  SVP for coupling: Year 2002 ---- TO BE CONFIRMED ------------  To be provided by middle of JUNE 2003: –Description of model set up (hor & vert resolution, domain, physics) –List of model experiments to be done

7. 7 The model data exchange protocols  Model data should be exchanged via ftp from –1) the central ftp site at INGV to the three regional sites (UAT, IMC, LEGOS) –2) the three regional sites should deliver data to the shelf models  Timing of data release: –Wednesday evening for the OGCM i.c. and lateral forcing fields –Early Thursday for the LAM fields  Forecast days: –OGCM: start forecast at 12:00 of TUESDAY (first ECMWF forecast meteo fields received for 18:00) –Regional models: start forecast at 00:00 of Wednesday using LAM forecast fields from 00:00 of Wednesday and daily average of first forecast day  Possible change by September 2003: –OGCM start forecast at 00:00 of Wednesday (first forecast meteo fields received for 06:00 of Wednesday)  OGCM data available through ftp from Jan. 2000 till today: ask password to Luca Giacomelli (giaco@ambra.unibo.it)

8. 8 Deliverable Table for WP8 WP8 – D01Year 2000 daily forecast and analyses fields archive; Continuation of MFSPP activities. T0+2 WP8 – D02MFSTEP OGCMT0+6 WP8 – D03Initial conditions for Subtask 8130T0+9

9. 9 Deliverable Table for WP9 WP9 – D1Protocols, Website Template6O WP9 - D2Bulletin Template6Re WP9 - D3Implementation of Regional Forecast Website and Bulletin 6O WP9 – D5Report on regional/shelf model implementation6Re WP9 – D6Air-Sea coupling algorithms6O WP9– D7Distribution Protocols12O WP9 – D8Report on high frequency forcing effects12Re

10. 10 Deliverable Table for WP10 WP10– D06Definition of the inter-comparison protocol6 WP10– D08LAM surface data exchange protocols6 WP10– D02LAM1 model implemented in the Western Mediterranean and new AGCM2- post-processing procedure at 0.1 deg 9 WP10– D03Merging procedures for central and western Med LAM1 – final LAM1 product at 7 km resolution for the region west of 22E 9 WP10– D04LAM2 model implemented in the Eastern Med. area9 WP10– D05NRT LAM surface data for forecasting9 WP10– D01AGCM1 surface data for forecasting and development studies 12 WP10–D07Corresponding LAM full volume atmospheric data archive for validation studies 12

11. “Air-sea interaction parameterizations in the OGCM and the regional models- SubTask 9120” Outline 1)OGCM forcing in analysis and forecast mode 2)Adriatic forcing in analysis and forecast mode 3)Future perspectives

12. 12 The OGCM atmospheric forcing problem: the heat flux  Surface meteorological analyses and forecast variables are taken EVERY SIX HOURS. They are: –10 m winds (northward and eastward components) –2 meters air temperature and dew point temperature –Mean sea level pressure –Cloud cover  Other variables should be added for sensitivity experiments: –Total precipitation –Short and long wavelength SOLAR radiation fluxes; –Long wavelength radiation upward (outgoing longwave radiation flux);  SST is taken from the model simulation at each model time step (900 sec.)  Bulk formulas are used to compute surface heat fluxes on the basis of past oceanographic experience in coupling

13. 13 The OGCM atmospheric forcing problem: the heat flux  Mediterranean heat flux issue: long term heat budget is negative, i.e., -7 +/- 3 W/m 2 average over the Med. Area  Other problems: large aerosol at the surface (cooling effects) and Sahara dust that change optical properties of the atmosphere  Solution adapted up to now: –(1) Tune the air-sea parameterizations to get the correct long term mean heat budget –(2) Heat flux corrections added to the heat flux term  The heat equation is:

14. 14 The heat flux continuation….  Heat flux boundary condition with heat penetration:  If no heat penetration is considered then:  If heat flux correction is used:

15. 15 Bulk formula used in air-sea surface boundary conditions for OGCM or regional models  Net solar radiation flux (Reed, 1977):  Outgoing longwave radiation flux (Bignami, May formulas …)  Sensible heat flux (Kondo, Budiko, Smith formulas….)

16. 16 Bulk formulas continuation…..  Latent heat flux (kondo, Budiko, Smith formulas….)  Castellari et al. (1998), Angelucci et al., (1998) showed that choosing Kondo with May and Reed the long term average of the Mediterranean was achieved  OGCM analysis run uses heat flux correction to observed weekly mean SST min addition to interactive bulk formulas  In MFSPP, regional models with perpetual year forcing used climatology for Q and added heat flux correction, with different coefficients region by region  Also, it was found that the heat flux correction was decreasing with the nesting, if Q fields from the OGCM model were used in the nested models

17. 17 The OGCM atmospheric forcing problem: the momentum flux  Wind forcing is translated into surface wind stress:  Using the Hellerman and Rosenstein formula for drag coefficient that becomes To-Ta, U dependent

18. 18 The OGCM atmospheric forcing problem: the water flux  Evaporation, precipitation and runoff is used to compute the salt and water fluxes  MOM uses w=0, OPA is implicit free surface and uses complete water budget, POM normally does not have complete water flux formulation but the new version of POM has. R is added where needed; S is sea surface Salinity, S* is climatology

19. 19 The Adriatic atmospheric forcing problem: the regional heat flux  Bulk formulas have been again assessed for the Adriatic area to get long term mean annual heat budget equal to -20+\- 5 W/m 2 (Artegiani et al., 1997, Maggiore et al., 1998)  Reed, May and Kondo where found to be the ‘best parameterizations’ for ECMWF surface variables  Chiggiato et al. (2003) comparing ECMWF (0.5x 0.5 degrees) heat fluxes with LAM fluxes (1/8 x 1/8 degrees resolution) computed with bulk formulas, finds the ‘best parameterizations’

20. 20 Year Q TOT QSQS QBQB QEQE QHQH Q AVE Data setsQ B parameterisation 1998 -9184-78-95-20-18 ECMWF 6-hourly surface operational analysis and 1°x1° weekly Reynolds SST MAY (1986) ER 1999 -15183-77-99-22 2000 -20187-80-105-22 2001 -30183-75-113-25 1998 -10187-70-97-31-13 LAMBO 6-hourly surface operational forecast and 1°x1° weekly Reynolds SST MAY (1986) LR 1999 -6184-66-94-30 2000 -11180-64-97-29 2001 -26172-61-103-35 MAY (1986) 1998 10184-74-85-15-2 ECMWF 6-hourly surface operational analysis with ECMWF Skin SST ES 1999 2183-74-89-18 2000 -4187-77-96-18 2001 -15183-73-104-21 1998 -2184-87-85-15 ECMWF 6-hourly surface operational analysis with ECMWF Skin SST BIGNAMI (1995) EB 1999 -10183-87-89-18 2000 -17187-89-96-18 2001 -30183-87-104-21

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