1. Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling Koosha Golmohammadi www.kooshanet.com golmoham@ualberta.ca

2. Outlines What is software What is software measurement What is uncertainty What is software quality What is risk management What is Bayesian method What is causal modeling and Bayesian net What is AgenaRisk Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 1/12

3. Causes leading to project failure Starting with inadequate budget or schedule Starting without adequate committed resources Starting without occurring of requirements flowdown Major project designs before understanding the relation between cost, performance, schedule and risk Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 2/12

4. Software Measurement and Analysis  How well are we meeting schedules and budgets?  Has our performance really improved?  What software practices and/or technologies should our organization invest in?  How does our organization's performance compare to other organizations' performances? Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 3/12

5. Benefits of Software Measurement Encourages appropriate behavior Pinpoints opportunities for improvement Leverage resources Enhances requirements process Manage workloads Only measuring can reduce cost by 15-20 % Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 4/12

6. Uncertainty and Software Measurement Roles of software measurement  Quality control  Effort estimation Uncertainty  Definition  How does it relate to software management Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 5/12

7. Risk Management Risk: Probability of not achieving a defined project goal Risk Management: Act of dealing with risk  Assessing risk issues  Developing risk handling strategies  Monitoring risk Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 6/12

8. Software Quality External product view (quality-in-use)  Defined by measuring external properties Internal product view  Quality of intermediate products Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 7/12

9. Prerequisites to produce a defect free product Good development process Well qualified staff working on a defined specification … Are the above enough? To ensure that the process conditions are right, for example checking intermediate products Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 8/12

10. Causal Relationships in software Development  Simpson’s paradox Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 9/12

11. Causal Relationships in Software Development In software engineering causal relationships are rarely straight forward Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 10/12 3040 60 0 10

12. Causal Modeling and Bayesian Method p(T = high | D = high ) = p(D = high ) p(D = high | T = high ) p(T = high ) 0.5 0.8 X 0.2 = 0.32= Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 11/12

13. Summary Quality measurement is an inevitable in software management Risk management covers software quality Modeling risk helps us to have a better understanding of project risks Combining causal modeling and Bayesian method gives an effective risk management approach An introduction to AgenaRisk tool Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling P 12/12

14. Thanks and Questions