1. Texas Council on Economic Education Laura Ewing/President 1801 Allen Parkway Houston, TX 77019 713.655.1650 www.economicstexas.org

3. If a presidential election were held tomorrow, what would be three issues of concern for you that would impact your vote? 1. 2. 3.

4. Ask a person who is at least 18 years of age the following question: Please indicate the three issues that are most important to you as you decide who will get your vote in a U. S. presidential election. 1. 2. 3. Due Date; ________________________________________________

5. 1. What are the common answers? 2. What do you think about the answers? 3. How many are economic answers?

6. What do the indicators indicate about the economy?

7. Visual 8.1 Economic IndicatorsStatistics Based on Indicators Unemployment Rate Inflation rate Growth rate in per capita GDP Misery Index Growth rate in real GDP

8. 1. Unemployment rate: the percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed. 2. Inflation rate: The percentage increase in the overall price level. 3. Real GDP: the value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a year, expressed in terms of constant dollars.

9. 1. Misery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. 2. Real Per Capita GDP Growth Rate: The percentage change in real GDP per person

10. Think, Pair, Share 1. 1. What do you see on the chart? 2. 2. What year since 1957 has the unemployment rate been the highest? 3. 3. What year had the highest inflation rate? 4. What year had the highest Misery Index?

11. Did the incumbent win? Did the “in office” party win?

12. Unemployment Rate: The percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed Inflation Rate: The percentage increase in the overall price level Real GDP: The value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a year, expressed in terms of constant dollars. T WO S TATISTICS B ASED ON T HESE I NDICATORS Misery Index: The sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Growth rate in real GDP per capita: The percentage change in the real GDP per person. LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS VISUAL 8.1 SOME KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY

13. A Real GDP per capita growth rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The growth rate of real GDP per capita is greater than 0% during the year of the election VISUAL 8.2 AN ECONOMIC RULE THAT DOES NOT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

14. A Real GDP per capita growth rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The growth rate of Real GDP per capita is greater than or equal to 2.5% during the year of the election. A Misery Index rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The Misery Index has not increased from the year prior to the election. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

15. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Students: Write winners of elections. Apply rules.

16. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

17. Predict who you think will win based on the data on Activity 8.2. Write two or more rules that demonstrated how to apply the data Share your rules and evaluate them.

18. Review the “rules” on 8.2 and 8.3. Which of these rules serve as a strong predictor? Which ones do not?

19. A Real GDP per capita growth rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The growth rate of Real GDP per capita is greater than or equal to 2.5% during the year of the election. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS The Real GDP per capita growth rule predicted 10 of last 13 elections…

20. A Misery Index rule: The incumbent party usually wins if… The Misery Index has not increased from the year prior to the election. VISUAL 8.3 SOME ECONOMIC RULES THAT WORK WELL E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS The Misery Index rule has predicted 11 out of the last 13 elections…

21. VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS YearGrowt h in Real GDP per Capita Unem ploym ent Rate Inflati on Rate Misery Index Growt h Rule Misery Index Rule Candid ates Incum bent Party Wins or Loses? 2009-4.39.3-0.48.9 20102.29.61.611.2 20110.98.93.212.1 2012??? Obama vs. Romne y

22. VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS YearGrowt h in Real GDP per Capita Unem ploym ent Rate Inflati on Rate Misery Index Growt h Rule Misery Index Rule Candid ates Incum bent Party Wins or Loses? 2009-4.39.3-0.48.9 20102.29.61.611.2 20110.98.93.212.1 2012 Current Data ??? 0.6 ??? Romne y Win Obama vs. Romne y ???

23. VISUAL FOR STEP 16 – Predicting the Next Election E LECTION L ESSONS © C OUNCIL FOR E CONOMIC E DUCATION, N EW Y ORK, NY LESSON 8 – ECONOMIC MISERY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS YearGrowt h in Real GDP per Capita Unem ploym ent Rate Inflati on Rate Misery Index Growt h Rule Misery Index Rule Candid ates Incum bent Party Wins or Loses? 2009-4.39.3-0.48.9 20102.29.61.611.2 20110.98.93.212.1 2012 Current Data ??? 0.6 ??? 8.1 ??? 1.7 ??? 9.8Romne y Win Obama Win Obama vs. Romne y ???

24. Spring 2008

25. Spring 2012

26. Do economics play a role in presidential elections?

27. Do you believe the data we have studied shows that economic conditions impact presidential elections? Is it fair to blame or give credit to the incumbent ?

28. Laura Ewing Texas Council on Economic Education laura@economicstexas.org www.economicstexas.orgwww.economicstexas.org smartertexas.org P: 713.655.1650 F: 713.655.1655 28 STAAR Lessons for HS US History and Economics

29. PowerPoint Adapted From A Presentation By Jean Walker West Texas Center for Economic Education College of Business West Texas A&M University Canyon, Texas 29 Lessons for HS US EconomicsSTAAR

30. Teaches teachers who teach students who are the future of Texas Provides interesting hands-on lessons that develop critical thinking skills for students in Economics, Social Studies, Math, and Career/Technical Education classes.

31. This workshop and the accompanying materials are made available to teachers through the generous support of State Farm and the Council for Economic Education.

32. Workshop and Materials Funded and/or Sponsored by: 32

33. Economics Challenge Fall and Spring Online Testing In Micro, Macro and International Economics Adam Smith Division 2nd place national champs Bellaire HS 2010/3 rd 2012 David Ricardo Division 3 rd place national champs Plano HS 2010/4 th place 2012 State competition in Austin

34. Personal Financial Literacy Challenge Middle and High School Fall and spring online challenges will determine state finalist candidates “State Play-Offs” in Austin with cash awards for two top teams HS national finals at Fed in St. Louis Bellaire HS Houston 2 nd in nation 2012

35. 10 week Student Session

36. How Do You Get These Materials? www.economicstexas.org

37. Teaching Financial Crises lessons: Common elements of financial crises worldwide throughout history Lesson 1 – compares 1907 & 2007 crises Lesson 2 – compares 2007 crisis with: (emphasis on reading eco. Data) Recession of 2001(Dot-Com bubble burst, Enron, Worldcom, et.) Recession of 1990-1991(oil price shock due to Gulf War) Recession of 1981-82(tight money to control inflation) Recession of 1973-75(stagflation; OPEC oil embargo spiked oil prices) Great Depression 1929-38(stock market crash; falling demand) Lesson 3 – a historical look at five bubbles & panics: Tulipmania in the Dutch Republic – 1630’s The South Sea Bubble – Great Britain 1711-1721 The Roaring 20’s Stock Bubble – 1920’s Japan’s Bubble Economy – 1985-90 The Dot-Com Bubble – 1990’s Lesson 4 – comparison to Lost Decade in Japan 37

38. Teaching Financial Crises:... presents an organizing framework for putting into context the media attention that has been paid to the 2008 financial crisis... This publication, in it’s entirety, is included on the Virtual Economics CD, version 4. 38

39. Teaching Financial Crises lessons: Specific focus on the recent financial crisis Lesson 5 – focuses on monetary policy Students role play as Federal Reserve Board governors Lesson 6 – examines the housing bubble Heavy use of supply/demand graphs Securitization simulation for students Lesson 7 – helps students learn terminology about modern financial markets Quiz bowl game on terminology Lesson 8 – interaction between modern financial markets and monetary and fiscal policies Students take part in mock trial 39

40. Lesson 1, Activity 3, page 11 Introduce the 2007 Financial Crisis with Activity 3 – Characters in the Financial Crisis Announcer Joe, who needs money for his kid’s college tuition Bruce, the mortgage banker/mortgage broker Mortimer, the old-time banker Uncle Sam Wall Street banker Investment salesman Village treasurer of Narvik, Norway Bruce’s boss The World – (all together) (Nine characters plus “the world”) 40

41. Lesson 1, Activity 1, page 15 Have students complete Activity 1 as you progress through the slides of visual 1. If you have not taught about the recent financial crisis, you will find information in other lessons to assist with explanations. FYI: The slides for Activity 1 are available in powerpoint on www.councilforeconed.org/financialcris es 41

42. THE PANIC OF 1907 THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007 PANDEMONIUM IN THE MARKETS

43. DEVASTATION SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE Shortly after 5 a.m. on April 18, a 7.8-magnitude quake, unleashed offshore, shook the city for just less than a minute. EVENTS IN 1906

44. UNCONTROLLABLE BLAZE 80% OF THE CITY DESTROYED Though the damage from the quake was severe, the subsequent fires from broken gas lines caused the vast majority of the destruction. SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE 1906

45. 3,000 PEOPLE DIED THE FIRES RAGED FOR FOUR DAYS REMEMBERING THE SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE OF 1906

46. TOUGH BALANCING ACT INFLEXIBLE CURRENCY Between 1870 and 1914, many countries adhered to a gold standard. This strictly tied national money supplies to gold stocks. Currency was redeemed for gold at a fixed exchange rate. THE GOLD STANDARD

47. THE WORLD’S FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAD BECOME COMPLEX & INTERRELATED At the end of 1905, nearly 50% of the fire insurance in San Francisco was underwritten by British firms. The earthquake gave rise to a massive outflow of funds—of gold— from London. The magnitude of the resulting capital outflows in late summer and early autumn 1906 forced the Bank of England to undertake defensive measures to maintain its desired level of reserves. The central bank responded by raising its discount rate 2.5% in 1906. Actions by the Bank of England attracted gold imports and sharply reduced the flow of gold to the United States. Interest rates rose and by May 1907, the United States had fallen into one of the shortest, but most severe, recessions in American history.

48. GREAT ECONOMIC PROMISE At the beginning of the century, the nation was brimming with a great amount of optimism. Here is a list of familiar companies founded between 1900 and 1905. Eastman Kodak Firestone Tire Ford Motors Harley-Davidson Hershey U.S. Steel J.C. Penney Pepsi-Cola Texaco Sylvania Electric

49. EVENTS IN 1907 In October 1907 two brothers, Otto and F. Augustus Heinze, attempted to manipulate the stock of a copper company. They planned to corner the market in the copper company's shares by buying aggressively in hopes they could later force short sellers to buy them at high prices. The plan did not have sufficient backing and failed.

50. PANIC IN THE STREETS News a number of prominent New York bankers were involved in the failed scheme began a crisis of confidence among depositors. As additional institutions were implicated, queues formed outside numerous banks as people desperately sought their savings.

51. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS Trust companies were a financial innovation of the 1890s. They had many functions similar to state and national banks but were much less regulated. KNICKERBOCKER TRUST COMPANY

52. GREATER RISKS WERE TAKEN They were able to hold a wide array of assets and were not required to hold reserves against deposits. They earned a higher rate of return on investments and paid out higher rates, but, to do this, they had to be highly leveraged. They took more risks than traditional banks. Illustration from Harper's Weekly December 20, 1913 by Walter J. Enright

53. A NEW YORK CITY BANK RUN IN NOVEMBER 1907 The runs on deposits that sparked the Panic of 1907 were at two of the largest New York City trust companies: Knickerbocker Trust and Trust Company of America.

54. THE IMPACT The crash and panic of 1907 had a dramatic effect on the health of the American and worldwide economies. In the United States: Commodity prices fell 21 %. Industrial production fell more than in any other crisis in American history to that point. The dollar volume of bankruptcies declared in November was up 47 % from the previous year. The value of all listed stocks in the U.S. fell 37 %. In October and November 1907, 25 banks and 17 trust companies failed. Thousands of depositors lost their life savings. Gross earnings by railroads fell by 6 % in December and production fell 11%. Wholesale prices fell 5 %. Imports shrank 26 %. In a few short months, unemployment rose from 2.8 % to 8%. Immigration reached a peak of 1.2 million in 1907 but fell to around 750,000 by 1909.

55. J.P. MORGAN NEITHER ELECTED NOR APPOINTED, HE FELT IT WAS HIS TIME TO ACT In the absence of a strong federal regulatory structure or any safety nets, the response to this crisis had to be delivered by a private citizen, J.P. Morgan, the world’s most powerful banker. He used all of his influence to convince fellow titans of industry to pool their resources and salvage the nation. The Panic subsided after six weeks. WHAT WAS DONE?

56. SPECULATION IN OFF- STREET MARKETS A BUCKET SHOP IN 1907 LESSONS FROM THE PANIC OF 1907 Bucket shops were blamed for fueling the speculation in 1907. They enabled people to speculate on the value of a stock without having to purchase the stock itself. The actual order to purchase went in the “bucket.” Beginning in 1909, New York banned bucket shops and other states followed.

57. THE WORLD MADE HUGE INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET ……….AND LOST!! By ignoring risk, remaining irrationally optimistic, and forgoing transparency through an array of fantastically complicated investment vehicles, the world’s financial markets were extremely dependent on housing prices. The underlying assumptions were (1) that housing prices never fall and (2) homeowners almost always pay their mortgages. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007

58. DURING AND AFTER THE MILD RECESSION OF 2001, THE FED LOWERS INTEREST RATES FORMER FED CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN THE ORIGINS OF THE CRISIS

59. FORMER PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH STRONGLY PROMOTED HOMEOWNERSHIP “We can put light where there’s darkness, and hope where there’s despondency in this country. And part of it is working together as a nation to encourage folks to own their own home” –President Bush, October 15, 2002. THE ORIGINS OF THE CRISIS

60. HIGHLY COMPLEX FORMS OF FINANCING THIS WAS TOO TEMPTING FOR THE FINANCIAL INSTUTIONS The momentum behind the expansion of homeownership led the government to reduce regulations and capital requirements for making loans. This led to a dizzying number of innovative ways to get less-qualified borrowers a mortgage and seemed to reduce risk for the lender. Mortgages could be bundled and sold around the world as securities. CAUSES OF THE CRISIS

61. TRUSTED AGENCIES FAILED TO WARN INVESTORS RISK-RATING AGENCIES Mortgage-backed securities were constructed of mortgages of differing quality levels. The obligations of solid and sub- prime borrowers were mixed in a manner that made it very difficult for experts to calculate risk. The assumption that U.S. housing prices would continue to rise and incentives to provide good ratings led agencies to rate these securities as AAA, lowering investors’ concerns. CAUSES OF THE CRISIS

62. WHAT WERE WE THINKING? THE PERFECT STORM Homeownership peaks in early 2005 at 70% of households. The Fed raises interest rates. Home prices fall. Higher adjustable interest rates increase payments for borrowers. Borrowers default in waves. Dozens of subprime lenders file for bankruptcy. Mortgage-backed securities lose value as investors question their contents. Financial institutions struggle to find buyers for the MBSs. EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS

63. “FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION” Financial institutions could purchase credit default swaps. A CDS is a private insurance contract that paid off if the investment failed. One did not actually have to own the investment to collect on the insurance. These promises were unregulated, and the sellers did not have to set aside money to pay for losses.

64. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007-2009 Bank failures: 183 (2%) 12/07- 2/10 (No deposits lost) Unemployment rate: 10.1% (10/09) Economic decline: -4.1% (4Q 2007-2Q 2009) Biggest drop in DJIA: -53.8% (12/07-3/09) Emergency spending and tax reduction programs: 2.5% of GDP in 2008 and in 2009 Aggressive increase in monetary stimulus by the Fed

65. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007-2009 6.7 million jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 Capital investment levels lowest in 50 years Domestic demand declines 11 consecutive quarters Industrial production down worldwide: Japan 31%, South Korea 26%, Russia 16%, Brazil 15%, Italy 14%, Germany 12%

66. The federal government unleashed a series of remedies in an attempt to limit the contagion. Massive sums of bank reserves were created to ease fears. In the process, the taxpayers took over or funded several familiar financial and nonfinancial companies. This time the government bails out the economy and business leaders and bankers are criticized.

67. 1907 2007 Highly complex and linked financial system Strong growth in the economy starting in 1900 Many people and institutions highly leveraged Innovative form of finance: trust companies Stock market setting all-time highs A limited role for government Markets swing from great optimism to great pessimism Global interdependent financial system Vibrant economic recovery after recession in 2001 Lenders willing to take more risk in making loans Unregulated financial institutions: hedge funds Companies reporting record earnings Absence of many safety buffers Dow 14,164 to 6,500 in 16 months SIMILARITIES

68. 1907 2007 J.P. Morgan, a private citizen, orchestrated the bailout The Panic lasted for six weeks, though the economy didn’t return to pre- Panic levels until 1909 Many banks were closed and many depositors lost their savings The nation was on the gold standard and the supply of money was fixed The San Francisco earthquake was a catalyst for the Panic The climate toward business was hostile prior to crisis The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department organize the reaction The event has been unfurling for more than five years Many banks closed and folded into healthier banks, but depositors did not lose any of their savings The nation uses Federal Reserve notes, creating a flexible money supply Hurricane Katrina was generally benign as a catalyst The climate toward business was friendly prior to crisis DIFFERENCES

69. FYI: Community Reinvestment Act – signed in 1977 by Jimmy Carter Induced lenders to enter underserved or “red-lined” areas. 1993 -1995, President Clinton asked regulators to reform the CRA to "deal with the problems of the inner city and distressed rural communities”--availability of credit should not depend on where a person lives. The Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994, which repealed restrictions on interstate banking, used CRA ratings as a consideration when determining whether to allow interstate branches George Bush, as early as 2002, pushed home ownership—”an ownership nation.” In 2007 Ben Bernanke suggested further increasing the presence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the affordable housing market to help banks fulfill their CRA obligations by providing them with more opportunities to securitize CRA-related loans. 69

70. What do all of the explanations show? The rise in housing prices represented a bubble. A price bubble is a situation where increases in price are not justified by fundamental factors affecting supply or demand, and therefore not sustainable. A price bubble is often caused by contagion, which is prices increasing because people observe them going up and think they will continue to go up. At one point, people who couldn’t pay their mortgages were taking out home equity lines of credit and using the cash to pay the mortgages! They could do this because equity in homes rose as home prices rose, and “personal bankers” were pushing home equity lines of credit. This causes people to purchase houses with the expectation that they will be able to sell them for a higher price in a relatively short time. It was a speculative bubble. When the bubble burst in 2006, house prices tumbled. 70

71. A Look at Historical Homeownership - USA 71

72. How does home ownership in the US compare to the world? U.S. Homeownership rate: 2000 67.4% 2004 69.0% 201066.9% 72

73. Mortgage-backed securities: Positives: Spreads risk. Not all eggs in one basket. Diversified. Made a liquid investment from an illiquid investment. Allowed smaller investors to invest in housing. Meant more money flowed into mortgage markets. Negatives: Reduced the incentive for investors to be concerned about the creditworthiness of borrowers. Reduced the incentive for banks and mortgage brokers to be concerned with creditworthiness. Exported the risk around the world because the MBS securities were stamped AAA by the ratings agencies and sold worldwide. 73