1. Maritime Drug Interdiction Through UAV Surveillance Presented by LT Monica Schneider LT Sylvester Campos LT Mike Dickenson

2. Background US Counter Drug Programs Goal: Reduce the flow of Latin American sourced Illicit drugs into the U.S. Interdiction methods Stricter Cross Border Control Supply reduction - Crop Eradication Primary source of Cocaine Bolivia, Columbia, Peru account for all cocaine harvested in the world

3. 2012 CBP Cocaine Seizure Statistics Coastal Border Sectors 24 Seizures 5,953 Pounds Southwest Border Sectors 457 Seizures 5,992 Pounds

5. Drug Traffickers Transport Methods Self-Propelled Semisubmersibles (SPSSs) Go-Fast Boats Fishing Vessels Container Ships

6. The Latest in the Drug War “Operation Martillo” Operation Martillo is a multinational interagency and joint military operation that combats aerial and maritime drug trafficking off Central America’s coasts. U.S. military participation is led by Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF), a component of U.S. Southern Command. Partnership of 14 various countries

7. Successes of Operation Martillo January 24, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 1,400 pounds of cocaine ($17 million) from a smuggler go-fast boat April 26, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 2,200 pounds of cocaine ($27 million) from a fishing vessel June 1, 2013 - $527 million worth in Cocaine from 2 Speed Boats

8. Assets for Maritime Interdiction Support from 4 th Fleet 4 Frigates Patrol in 2 zones (Pacific/Atlantic) coasts of South America Coast Guard A/C and Cutters 600 Person Multiagency Task Force Partner nations contribute Patrol Boats and P- 3’s (Canada) 4 UAV’s

9. MQ-9 Predator General Characteristics Primary Function: Airborne surveillance and target acquisition Fuel Capacity: 100 gallons Payload: 450 pounds Speed: Cruise speed around 84 mph (70 knots), up to 135 mph Ceiling: up to 50,000 feet Endurance: Up to 30 hours Cost: $16.9 Million Crew (remote): Two (pilot and sensor operator Tracking: FMV monitored by controlling station or uplinked with an asset. Capable in low visibility (cloud cover) and inclement weather

10. Intent UAV’s will be able to spot drug traffickers and then report back to a command center, which will alert the Coast Guard, Navy or authorities from Caribbean or Central American nations to take action.

11. UAV Search Graph Original Problem Cocaine & Marijuana All possible routes Max Flow Project Focus Cocaine Maritime Routes Max Flow with shortest path properties

12. Network Model Max Flow Network Model / Modified Min Cost Flow to force shortest path properties Nodes Demand Nodes - Corpus Christi, Miami, New Orleans Supply Nodes – Equally Distributed Supply Nodes along Latin American Coast (53 Total) Edges – All neighboring water nodes are connected

13. Network Edges Each Node over water Is connected by an edge Flow moving from Supply nodes to Demand nodes

14. Supply & Demand Nodes Supply Nodes Equally Distributed 53 Supply Nodes 625lbs each Demand Nodes Miami - 9,922 New Orleans 9,921 Corpus Christi 13,282 Transit Nodes 329

15. Equally Distributed Supply Distance vs Profit Annual estimated flow

16. Assumptions Cocaine travels from supply to demand nodes shortest feasible path Presently 15% rate of seizure of all drugs in the demand regions UAVs are available to be on station 24/7 UAVs identify targets and tracks until forces arrive for apprehension (never leave station after they are assigned best grid location) 100 percent detection rate of drug running vessels transiting through UAVs’ station. Can not interdict within 60 km off US coast Each node is 1° degree of latitude and longitude

17. Analysis 33,126 lbs transported from all supply nodes Combined Node distinction

18. The “Interesting Questions” How much drug flow can be interdicted? How many UAVs do we need to stop as much drug flow as possible? Marginal cost of adding UAV interdictions? At what levels can the program be fiscally justified?

19. Interdictions UAVs can be assign 1 to multiple nodes to survey Probability of detection is initially 1 when assigned a single node and is reduced to 1 divided by number of nodes assigned UAVs never participate in apprehension Apprehension away from UAV station No Interdictions with 60 miles of US Coastline UAV yearly mission cost $18.4 Million per UAV

20. 1 UAV Interdiction Total/Change 11,328 lbs seized $133 Million 34.2% reduction Seizure Cost $1,641/lbs $0.54 Million/%

21. 2 UAV Interdictions Additional 5,625 lbs $66.5 Million 17.0% reduction Total 16,953 lbs seized $200 Million 51.2% reduction Seizure Cost $2,171/lbs $0.72 Million/%

22. 3 UAV Interdictions Additional 5,000 lbs $59.1 Million 15.1% reduction Total 21,953 lbs seized $259 Million 66.3% reduction Seizure Cost $2,514/lbs $0.83 Million/%

23. 4 UAV Interdictions Additional 2,500 lbs $29.5 Million 7.5% reduction Total 24,453 lbs seized $289 Million 73.8% reduction Seizure Cost $3,010/lbs $1.0 Million/%

24. 5 UAV Interdictions Additional 1,250 lbs $14.8 Million 3.8% reduction Total 26,003 lbs seized $307 Million 78.4% reduction Seizure Cost $3,538/lbs $1.2 Million/%

25. Patterned Interdictions Additional 2,656 lbs $31.4 Million $6,927 / lb Additional 3,144 lbs $37.2 Million $5,852 / lb

26. Number of Interdictions $/lb

27. Number of Interdictions

28. Further Research Increase complexity by removing as many assumption as possible Specific UAV parameters Joint coordination timelines/requirements/assests Refueling and replacement plans for UAV for management of assets (time to station) Improve intelligence on drug smuggling process

29. References “Just the Facts” A Civilians Guide to U.S. Defense and Security Assistance http://justf.org/blog/2013/03/12/operation-martillo-southcoms-counternarcotics-operation- central-americas-coasts http://justf.org/blog/2013/03/12/operation-martillo-southcoms-counternarcotics-operation- central-americas-coasts Statfor Global Intelligence http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexicos-cartels-and-economics-cocaine?older=1353501041 162 nd Fighter Wing http://www.162fw.ang.af.mil/resources/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=11932 World Drug Report

30. Questions?