1. E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 11 May 2010 Vertical Velocity and Microphysical Distributions Related to the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Dennis (2005) E N W S Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center. "The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.” http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS011&roll=E&frame=10221

2. E N W S Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center. "The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.” http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS011&roll=E&frame=10216

3. Guiding Questions How do such isolated, inner-core, most- intense vertical velocities (i.e., convective bursts) cause and/or respond to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones?

4. Guiding Questions How do such isolated, inner-core, most- intense vertical velocities (i.e., convective bursts) cause and/or respond to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones? What statistics can be gathered from a high- resolution simulation regarding convective bursts’ distributions, magnitudes, vertical structures, durations, proximities to the vortex center, and trends as precursors to RI?

5. Limited understanding of how RI may relate to convective bursts – 3-D structure – Timing – Distributions of latent heat Motivation

6. Limited understanding of how RI may relate to convective bursts – 3-D structure – Timing – Distributions of latent heat Need to statistically characterize the morphology of these isolated, intense vertical velocities and associated microphysics within observational voids Motivation

7. WRF Configuration Horizontal… 27-km 9-km 3-km 1-km d01 d02 d03 d04 736 784

8. WRF Configuration Vertical…

9. Dennis Track 00Z 06 July 2005 00Z 07 July 2005 00Z 08 July 2005

10. *10 min * Intensity

11. *10 min * Intensity -19 hPa (6 h) -1

12. *10 min * Intensity

13. * * *10 min +36 kts (6 h) -1

14. 14:20Z-14:32Z 09 July 2005 [dBZ] [m s -1 ] 14:45Z-15:03Z 09 July 2005 Guimond et al. (2010, JAS) Are column- confined, averaged, and low-to-mid- level interpretations valid? Convective Bursts?

15. 10-min 2-min

16. 10-min 2-min

17. CFAD 9 hours before RI 9 hours during RI Column Max Reflectivity s

18. 9 hours before RI 9 hours during RI during – before RI CFAD Difference

27. hourly 99.9 th percentile w [m s -1 ]

28. Interpretation of RI depends on: – Interval examined – ∆p min or ∆|v 10-m, max | perspective Discrete vertical level statistics provide better identification of convective bursts than column averages or thresholds Outlier (e.g., 99.9 th percentile) w better indicators of RI than averages – Precursor to RI at upper levels (e.g., 14 km) – Continual broadening and convergence toward TC center CONCLUSIONS

29. CONCLUSIONS, CONT’D Outlier (e.g., 99.9 th percentile) w at lower levels (e.g., 6 km), however, increase only after onset of and during RI Manifested as an increase in latent heating Precursor w have unnoticeable impact on latent heating – Vertical structure – Thresholds for definition Implications of these upper-level, rapidly accelerating updrafts for RI?

30. Acknowledgements AMS Graduate Fellowship, Earth Science Div. of the Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters under the NESSF Program NASA Hurricane Science Program – Grant NNX09AB82G NOAA/GFDL WRF Modeling Community TeraGrid Seemingly endless list of students, staff, and faculty at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and beyond THANK YOU! Boston.com “Hurricanes, as seen from orbit” http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurricanes_as_seen_from_orbit.html

32. *LH, Abe

34. < -80

35. Precursor to RI? Colin et al. (2009, Nature Geosci.)

37. *history interval accumulation ≤ 5 > 3 > 15

38. ≤ 0 > -2 < -10 *instantaneous, @ output

39. ≤ 0 > -60 < -540

41. > 1.0 < 5.0 > 30.0 < 40.0

44. 2030Z7th

45. 2036Z7th

46. 2042Z7th

47. 2048Z7th

48. 2054Z7th

49. 2100Z7th

50. Observed onset of RI

51. Every 6 hours from contour analysis of simulation

52. onset of simulated 24-hour period during which ∆p min ≤ -42 hPa Every 3 hours from contour analysis of simulation

53. onset of simulated 24-hour period during which ∆|v 10-m, max contour | ≥ +30 knots Every 6 hours from contour analysis of simulation

54. onset of simulated 24-hour period during which ∆|v 10-m, max contour | ≥ +30 knots Every 3 hours from contour analysis of simulation

55. hourly 99.9 th percentile w [m s -1 ]

56. Zhu and Zhang (2006, JAS) Li and Pu (2008, MWR) Relation to Microphysics only warm rain processes; hmmm… LI AND PU MARCH 2008 WSM3 WSM5 WSM6 Increasing inclusion of mixed-phase proc. graupel support Wang (2002)

58. Rogers (2010, JAS)

60. MEAN, convective regions

66. 72.9°W 71.6°W 15.6°N 16.7°N (|V 10-m | ≥ 30 knots) contoured (interval = 5 knots) in black 18:00Z 06 July 2005

67. What About the Vertical?

69. > 35 < 40 > 15 < 20

70. < 364 > 372 < 374

71. > 370 < 374 > 358 < 362