1. North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011 Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017

2. North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service Background Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017 Potential variability limits certainty 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year Not nearly as risky as 2013/2014 and beyond

3. 2012/2013 Assumptions Pay Award of between 0% and 2.5% General Price Inflation of 0% Zero Contribution From District Collection Funds Marginal Increase in Taxbase Freeze Grant of between Nil and £560,000 Council Tax increase between 0% and 3.2% North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

4. Downward Pressure Staff Cost Savings £843,000 Non Staff Savings £691,000 Income Generation £272,000 Pensions Neutral

5. North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service Upward Pressure Committed Staff Costs £284,000 Uncommitted Staff Costs £65,000 Committed Growth Non Staff £969,000 Capital Financing £213,000 Income Reduction £103,000 Contractual Inflation £148,000

6. North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service A Balanced Base Budget Marginal Decrease in Base Service Requirement of 0.1% (£30,000) 0.6% increase in Council Tax Manage Reduction in Budget (£110,000) to achieve Zero Increase in Council Tax

7. 2013/14 – 2016/17 2% Pay p.a and 3% 2016/17 2% pa increase in Council Tax Grant profile -8.5%, -5% (CLG) then +2%, +2% General Non Staff Costs Pressures 3%p.a Then Balanced 2012/13 Budget requires Savings of £3.47m North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

8. Variations on a Theme – No.1 Assume Pay increase of 2.5% 2012/2013 Increase Council Tax by 3.2% Nil Freeze Grant If Pay is 5% Increase Council Tax by 5.5% A realistic Pay Assumption? (Summary) 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.38m required North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

9. Variation No.2 Assume Nil Pay Award 2012/13 Budget for zero increase in Council Tax and claim Freeze Grant 2013/2014 to 2016/17: Savings of £3.49m required North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

10. Variation No.3 Assume Pay Award of 2.5% 2012/13 Budget for zero increase in Council Tax Claim Freeze Grant which covers 2.5% Pay Increase (c £500,000) 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £4.0m required North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

11. Variation No.4 As V3 but Use Reserves in lieu of Savings Current Forecast £5.8m Gone by 2015/2016 Council Tax increase of 19% in 2015/16 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

12. Variation No.5 As V3 but let Council Tax take the Strain 12/13 - 3.2% 13/14 - 10.3% 14/15 - 6.0% 15/16 - 4.3% 16/17 - 2.7% Practical? A lost referendum would add 5.2% North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

13. Variation No.6 V4 and V5 Clearly Imprudent so it could be all about timing and Realism of assumptions (CPI of 2%?) So..Council Tax Freeze 2012/013 Use Some Reserves (£0.5m) 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.2m required (Show Summary) North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

14. Strategy/Options Still Much to be Determined Manageable in 2012/2013 but cashflow of future reductions needs to be considered No Apparent Incentive to Increase Council Tax for 2012/2013 “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase 2013/2014? Plan for V3, Settle for V6

15. Strategy/Options Compliance – Need to Do? Cost Control Rationalisation General Savings and Efficiency Drives Reserves and/or Council Tax North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service