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Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP) April 2013. MTFP The MTFP is a high-level forecasting model that enables the Council to assess the financial direction.

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Presentation on theme: "Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP) April 2013. MTFP The MTFP is a high-level forecasting model that enables the Council to assess the financial direction."— Presentation transcript:

1 Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP) April 2013

2 MTFP The MTFP is a high-level forecasting model that enables the Council to assess the financial direction of travel, test “what if” scenarios and make annual budget decisions in the context of the bigger picture.

3 MTFP Summary (Report 47/2013 Appendix 1) 2013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/19 Proposed ££££££ People15,362,10015,651,40016,302,50016,814,50017,287,70017,670,400 Places10,950,60010,754,60010,891,70011,029,30011,204,90011,384,500 Resources5,189,1005,120,8005,255,3005,300,8005,435,0005,531,300 Support for LCTS100,000 Inflation Contingency103,300300,600499,800701,000904,2001,109,500 Additional Recurring Savings(631,400)(1,239,300)(1,763,800)(1,852,000)(1,868,100) Net Cost of Services 31,073,70030,688,10031,285,50032,093,60033,063,70033,927,600 Capital Financing 2,197,0002,083,0001,937,0001,912,0001,892,0001,865,000 Interest Receivable (151,000)(164,500)(178,000)(191,500)(205,000)(218,500) Net spending 33,119,70032,606,60033,044,50033,814,10034,750,70035,574,100 Resources Non ring fenced grants(556,900)(406,600)(300,600)(278,900)(274,600)(260,900) New Homes Bonus(383,500)(579,800)(828,100)(1,070,600)(1,197,100)(1,223,000) NHS Support for Social Care(485,800)(447,900)(415,200)(388,600)(385,900)(366,600) Council tax freeze grant(208,500) 0000 Revenue Support Grant(5,809,500)(4,831,000)(3,994,000)(3,289,000)(3,056,000)(2,903,200) Retained Business Rates(4,076,500)(4,143,300)(4,168,700)(4,210,200)(4,247,300)(4,283,300) Council Tax(19,685,700)(20,295,000)(20,934,800)(21,587,900)(22,233,800)(22,807,400) Collection fund surplus(125,500)00000 Capital met from Direct Revenue300, Transfers from earmarked reserves(234,200)(22,500)0000 Reversal of Depreciation(1,658,800) (Surplus)/Deficit for year194,80013,200744,3001,330,1001,697,2002,070,900 Balance brought forward (7,875,700)(7,680,900)(7,667,700)(6,923,400)(5,593,300)(3,896,100) Balance carried forward (7,680,900)(7,667,700)(6,923,400)(5,593,300)(3,896,100)(1,825,200)

4 Assumptions within Net Cost of Services Inflation - Pay 1% for 2013/14; 2% each year after - Energy8% each year - Contracts2% or 3% each year - Goods and Services 2% each year - Fees and Charges2.5% in 2013/14; 1% in 2014/15; 2% each year after Service pressures 2013/14 (Report 34/2013 Appendix 3) - People£503,000 - Places£21,000 Only other specific provision in MTFP is for effect of implementing ‘Dilnot’ recommendations on social care /16 includes £300, /17 a further £100, /18 a further £100,000

5 Assumptions within Net Cost of Services Savings (Report 34/2013 Appendix 4) To be achieved in 2013/14 within service budgets - People£167,000 - Places£399,700 - Resources£336,400 Plus further savings assumed but not yet allocated within service budgets - People£455,500 - Places£ 70,200 - Resources£105,700 MTFP assumes further savings /15£607, /16£534, /17£ 88,200 Support for Local Council Tax Scheme - Discretionary Fund of £100,000 to assist in mitigating hardship Inflation contingency - Provides for 1% pay award in 2013/14

6 Capital Capital Financing - Interest on external borrowing  Fixed rate of interest on long term loans - Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP)  Represents amount to be set aside for debt repayment  Based on 4% of Capital Financing Requirement (CFR) Interest Receivable - Short-term money market deposits in accordance with Treasury Management Strategy - Rates of interest influenced by Base Rate

7 Resources Grants (Report 47/2013 Appendix 6) - Non ring-fenced grants  Education Services (ex LACSEG)£322,000  Concessionary Fares£ 36,000  LCTS Transitional Grant£ 24,729  Local Reform and Community Voices£ 26,259  Community Right to Bid£ 7,855  Community Right to Challenge£ 8,547  Lead Local Flood Authorities£ 8,706  Social Fund£ 28,000  Efficiency Grant £ 94,829

8 Resources New Homes Bonus Planning approvals used to estimate future new homes Damping applied to allow for non-completions Allowance for bringing empty properties back into use Allowance for proportion of new homes that are ‘affordable’ Grant 2013/14 Brought forward from previous years£258,500 Increase in stock (Oct 2011 to Oct 2012)81 Empty properties 3 Rate per dwelling £1, Affordable homes 26 Premium per affordable home £ Grant for 2013/14£125,000 Total receivable in 2013/14£383,500

9 Resources NHS Support for Social Care - Contribution from PCT for 2013/14£485,800 Council Tax Freeze Grant - Based on 1% increase, payable for 2 years£208,500 Revenue Support Grant - Formula funding£3,748,752 - Council Tax Freeze £312,803 - Council Tax Support £860,799 - Early Intervention £789,240 - Homelessness Prevention £30,025 - Lead Local Flood Authorities £67,496 - Learning Disability & Health Reform £40,235 £5,849,350 - Less Parish Councils share £ 39, /14 grant£5,809,500

10 Resources Retained Business Rates Planning approvals used to estimate future business expansion Damping applied to allow for non-completions and appeals Government sets target for business rate income Council keeps 49% of target Deduction for tariff set by Government Levy of 16% on any growth above target 2013/14 Estimate - Total Business Rates Collected£9,852,000 - Rutland County Council share£4,827,500 - Less Tariff£ 760,000 - Less Levy£ 9,000 -£ 769,000 - Retained Business Rates£4,076,500

11 Resources Council Tax - Tax base (Report 6/2013) (Band D equivalent) - Band D average (includes precepts)£1, (no increase from 2012/13) - Income for year£19,685,700 Collection Fund Surplus - Estimate at 31/3/ Gross collectable£27,788,000 - Less reliefs and exemptions£ 2,951,000 - Less Provision for Bad and Doubtful £ 35,000 Debts -£ 2,986,000 - Net collectable£24,802,000 - Less Precepts and demands payable£24,657,000 - Estimated surplus at 31/3/2013£ 145,000 - Rutland County Council share£ 125,500

12 Resources Capital met direct from revenue - Digital Rutland £300,000 Transfer from Earmarked Reserves - Planning Delivery Grant£ 96,500 - Section 106 commuted sum£ 36,000 - Anglian Water£ 73,200 - Local Strategic Partnership£ 28,500 - Total for 2013/14 £234,200

13 Perspective Changes in assumptions have different impacts on MTFP - Inflation on pay 1% = £100k - Inflation on goods/services 1% = £200k - Interest rate 1% = £150k - Council Tax 1% = £200k - Each new home = £3k - Business RV 1% = £50k

14 Conclusion Strong position with sufficient reserves in hand to see through economic recession Model enables good forward planning Linked to annual budgets and monitoring to ensure decisions made in full knowledge of medium term effect Enables changes in assumptions to be made to see what impact would be


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