1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Outlook on Renewable Energy (and reducing GHG emissions). Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry, Zeist, 2 nd November 2012 André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Head of Unit Energy & Resources Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40, CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Houston we have a problem! Peak oil Peak soil Peak water Peak biodiversity loss Peak population Peak GDP Climate Agriculture Energy Biodiversity Poverty & development And it is urgent!

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global population projections (stabilization at about 9 billion in GEA) 19401960198020002020204020602080 2100 World population (billion) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200020202040206020802100 Population (billion) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA Industrialized GEA Developing [GEA, 2012]

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Economic development projections (developing countries avg. 3.5%/yr; developed countries 1.2%/yr) 194019601980200020202040206020802100 World GDP (trillion US$ 2005) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 200020202040206020802100 GDP (trillion US$ 2005) 0 100 200 300 400 500 GEA Industrialized GEA Developing [GEA, 2012]

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Transport… Can result in 2 billion passenger cars in 2050 Tripling compared to 2000

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management The current global energy system is dominated by fossil fuels.

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels (IEA base scenario; 2030) [Source: IEA]

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management More carbon in underground than the atmosphere (and oceans) can swallow.

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management GHG emissions vs. global temperature…; little disagreement about the impact of a 6 oC change.. [IPCC-SRREN, 2012]

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Grenzen aan de groei…? [Meadows]

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Nervous markets…

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management What to do? Despair or …. Do something Use your climate toolkit

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14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management The BLUE Map Scenario – Towards a low- carbon energy sector Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and climate policies BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO 2 -emissions halved by 2050 through CO 2 -price and strong support policies Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps 23% of global emission savings occur in the transport sector

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Historical Development of Global Primary Energy Supply from RE (1971 – 2007). [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

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17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050). Thick black line = median, Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile, Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Costs available RE technologies vs. fossil energy costs. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

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21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be expected in the future. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management ‘Learning investments’ – the cost of learning Source: IEA, 2000

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units of a new power plant technology Source: EPRI

24. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Technical Advancements: growth in size of commercial wind turbines.

25. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management CSP seen as driver for economic development…

26. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Experience curve for primary forest fuels in Sweden and Finland (1975 and 2003). Source: Junginger Faaij et al., 2005

27. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Experience curve for the average and marginal production cost of electricity from Swedish biofuelled CHP plants from 1990-2002 Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005

28. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Estimated future costs of sugarcane and ethanol production assuming 8% annual growth Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane J.D. van den Wall Bake, M. Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot, A. da Silva Walter Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008

29. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management And such opportunities can be found in most sectors… [Martin Weiss et al., 2010]

30. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Key factors biomass potentials Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science 2010

31. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management 2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels 2008 Global Energy Total Chapter 2 Possible Deployment Levels 2011 IPCC Review* Land Use 3 and 5 million km 2 Chapter 10 Modelled Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration Targets Past Literature Range of Technical Potentials 0-1500 EJ Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y 2008 Global Biomass Energy 2050 Global Energy AR4, 2007 2050 Global Biomass AR4, 2007 <440 ppm 440- 600 ppm Technical Potential 2050 Projections Minimum median 75 th Maximum 100 300 150 190 80 265 300 Technical Potential Based on 2008 Model and Literature Assessment 118 20 25 25 th Percentile 2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiber as Energy Content [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

32. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Projected production costs estimated for selected developing technologies [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

33. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050 Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050 Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels key to decarbonise heavy transport modes Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels vital to meet the roadmap targets Final energy (EJ)

34. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50 Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case Production costs shown as untaxed retail price

35. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] Driving forces, dimensions, scales…

36. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Source: Statoil

37. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Conceptual CO2 transport configurations Damen et al., 2008

38. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management CO2 avoidance costs for electricity production (ref: identical technology without CCS). Damen et al., 2007

39. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management An ultimate energ transition machine: flex-fuel IG/synfuel/power +CCS Major investments in China. - No oil for transport! - 50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission. About 50% of carbon! [Meerman et al., RSER 2011 & 2012]

40. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management What are we waiting for? Yueyang Sinopec-Shell Coal gasification project; (China) Shell gasifier arriving at site September 2006. 15 licences in China at present… Courtesy of Shell

41. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management GHG emissions per km driven [Van Vliet et al., 2009] No CCSCCS

42. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Energy system transformation… [Vuuren et al., Current opinions in Env. Sust., 2012]

43. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Final remarks Business as Usual: likely given the current governance capabilities; it’s correctional force and collateral damage may be impressive. Global Governance; preferred and to be pursued; but will it deliver on time? Smart economics: economic superiority for sectors, countries, households…; connects to current system capabilities and psychology. –Develop (niche) markets and market volume. –Divert fossil fuel subsidies (budget neutral). –Rock solid innovation strategies backed by macro- economic interests: THINK ASIA!!!.

44. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Niet lullen maar poetsen mensen en dank voor uw aandacht A.P.C.Faaij@uu.nl sciencedirect/scopus srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report