1. The common use of the Nile: survival and implications for regional/continental security by Debay Tadesse Ph.D Institute for Security Studies Addis Ababa, Ethiopia November 17, 2009

2. Outline Overview of available water resources in the Nile Basin regions Overview of available water resources in the Nile Basin regions Water and Food security Water and Food security Energy and Water Energy and Water Possibility of conflict and cooperation Possibility of conflict and cooperation Current water management policies of Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Current water management policies of Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Recommendations and the way forward Recommendations and the way forward

3. Political Map of Africa

4. Physical Map of Africa

5. INTRODUCTION United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP): increasing numbers of African countries face water stress scarcity and land degradation. United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP): increasing numbers of African countries face water stress scarcity and land degradation. Africa is not the driest continent in the world. Africa is not the driest continent in the world. It has a reticulation of over 54 drainage basins It has a reticulation of over 54 drainage basins The Nile is the longest river in the world (6,825 km) or about (4240 miles) in the world The Nile is the longest river in the world (6,825 km) or about (4240 miles) in the world 40 percent of the African population directly depend on the Nile River for their livelihood 40 percent of the African population directly depend on the Nile River for their livelihood

6. Recurrent famine since the 1980s. Recurrent famine since the 1980s. The hunger in Ethiopia has become so chronic The hunger in Ethiopia has become so chronic In 2000, about 13 million Ethiopians have been fed with 1.7 million tons of food In 2000, about 13 million Ethiopians have been fed with 1.7 million tons of food Currently over 10 million people are threatened by famine Currently over 10 million people are threatened by famine Reliable access to water Reliable access to water Environmental degradation, recurrent drought and famine in Ethiopia is lack of water management. Environmental degradation, recurrent drought and famine in Ethiopia is lack of water management.

7. The Nile Basin Disequilibrium No comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile river No comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile river The few agreements that exist so far are entered between the two downstream riparian states the Sudan and Egypt The few agreements that exist so far are entered between the two downstream riparian states the Sudan and Egypt No cooperation and coordinated development planning among the ten riparian states. No cooperation and coordinated development planning among the ten riparian states. The Nile basin has not made any significant contribution to the ‘welfare, of its close to 300 million inhabitants who are among the most impoverished and who comprise six of the world’s ten least developed countries. The Nile basin has not made any significant contribution to the ‘welfare, of its close to 300 million inhabitants who are among the most impoverished and who comprise six of the world’s ten least developed countries. Allocations of water resources to meet basic human needs, food security, energy, and economic development; while maintaining the integrity of aquatic ecosystems is needed in this region. Allocations of water resources to meet basic human needs, food security, energy, and economic development; while maintaining the integrity of aquatic ecosystems is needed in this region.

8. Water and Food Security Unpredictable rain fall as a result of climate change, luck of water management and drought, failure of crops are making food security impossible in this region. Unpredictable rain fall as a result of climate change, luck of water management and drought, failure of crops are making food security impossible in this region. Water and food security are closely related Water and food security are closely related Reliable access to water increases agricultural yields Reliable access to water increases agricultural yields Lack of water management can be a major cause of droughts, famine and undernourishment Lack of water management can be a major cause of droughts, famine and undernourishment The availability of irrigation water enables more crops to be grown per year and increase in year-round farming and employment opportunities. The availability of irrigation water enables more crops to be grown per year and increase in year-round farming and employment opportunities.

9. Currently all the Nile riparian states have drawn ambitious national water development plans Currently all the Nile riparian states have drawn ambitious national water development plans These plans are often carried out on unilateral and non-consultative bases These plans are often carried out on unilateral and non-consultative bases This creates further competition for fresh water. This creates further competition for fresh water. A continued unilateralist approach with regards to water development is expected A continued unilateralist approach with regards to water development is expected Beyond dispute such a unilateral approach is conflict laden and incompatible with a more cooperative approach. Beyond dispute such a unilateral approach is conflict laden and incompatible with a more cooperative approach.

10. Water and Energy For more than 85% of the 300 million people in the Nile basin riparian countries, energy is about wood, waste, dung, candles and kerosene. For more than 85% of the 300 million people in the Nile basin riparian countries, energy is about wood, waste, dung, candles and kerosene. Fuel supply in this region is mainly biomass based (90% of total energy supply). Fuel supply in this region is mainly biomass based (90% of total energy supply). Utilizing energy efficiently is crucial in order to provide adequate water for agriculture and livestock development and for human consumption. Utilizing energy efficiently is crucial in order to provide adequate water for agriculture and livestock development and for human consumption.

11. Cooperation and Conflict The competition for scarce water resources is intense The competition for scarce water resources is intense One reason for environmental degradation, recurrent drought and famine in this region is lack of water management One reason for environmental degradation, recurrent drought and famine in this region is lack of water management An important strategic plan to overcoming the problem of recurrent drought and famine is for the riparian states to concentrate on the efficient utilization of the Nile water. An important strategic plan to overcoming the problem of recurrent drought and famine is for the riparian states to concentrate on the efficient utilization of the Nile water. it is essential for the authorities not only to develop water resources but also to protect the region’s environment and natural resources it is essential for the authorities not only to develop water resources but also to protect the region’s environment and natural resources Insure the environmental basis of sustainable development in the region. Insure the environmental basis of sustainable development in the region.

12. EGYPT’S WATER POLICY Law of Prior Appropriation Law of Prior Appropriation The concept of: The concept of: –Historical Rights –Acquired Rights –Established Rights The derivatives and extensions of the Law of Prior Appropriation The derivatives and extensions of the Law of Prior Appropriation

13. SUDAN’S WATER POLICY In both the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters agreements, Sudan accepted the concept of acquired rights, Sudan currently acknowledges that this concept is not the sole basis for international agreement Sudan’s policy regarding Nile River water seems to be guided by the dual principles of acquired and equitable and reasonable use of shared water resources. Sudan’s policy on the issue of water use by other riparian countries is generally more cautious and accommodating.

14. ETHIOPIA’S WATER POLICY Unlike Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia does not advocate the principle of acquired rights; Unlike Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia does not advocate the principle of acquired rights; Instead, it consistently promotes the concept of equitable entitlement as the best way to settle Nile water-allocation issues. Instead, it consistently promotes the concept of equitable entitlement as the best way to settle Nile water-allocation issues. This concept has been the dominant feature of Ethiopia’s policy in the last four decades, even though there were times when it took a more monopolistic approach. This concept has been the dominant feature of Ethiopia’s policy in the last four decades, even though there were times when it took a more monopolistic approach.

15. Uganda Tanzania Kenya The East African Nile Basin countries of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania were unable to exploit the Nile waters for consumptive uses during the colonial era. The East African Nile Basin countries of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania were unable to exploit the Nile waters for consumptive uses during the colonial era. The treaties which were concluded on their behalf by the colonial power in 1929 including the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan had their hands tied The treaties which were concluded on their behalf by the colonial power in 1929 including the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan had their hands tied Until late 1950s and early 1960s, all of the three upper White Nile River riparian countries were under British Until late 1950s and early 1960s, all of the three upper White Nile River riparian countries were under British After the East African states gained their independence, almost all of them repudiated treaties concluded on their behalf by the colonial powers After the East African states gained their independence, almost all of them repudiated treaties concluded on their behalf by the colonial powers Despite such statements, Uganda still abides by some of the colonial era agreements, such as the Owen Falls Agreement, Despite such statements, Uganda still abides by some of the colonial era agreements, such as the Owen Falls Agreement,

16. In 2004, Tanzania unilaterally announced the establishment of a 170 kilometer water pipeline from Lake Victoria In 2004, Tanzania unilaterally announced the establishment of a 170 kilometer water pipeline from Lake Victoria Only months earlier, the Kenyan government, another riparian country on the Nile basin, asserted that it “will not accept any restrictions on the use of Lake Victoria and River Nile,” and announced that it would unilaterally withdraw from the 1929 treaty. Only months earlier, the Kenyan government, another riparian country on the Nile basin, asserted that it “will not accept any restrictions on the use of Lake Victoria and River Nile,” and announced that it would unilaterally withdraw from the 1929 treaty.

17. NO COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT There is no comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile river There is no comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile river The need for long-term environmentally and socially sustainable development The need for long-term environmentally and socially sustainable development Cooperation among these countries is badly needed. Cooperation among these countries is badly needed. There is plenty of water in the region There is plenty of water in the region

18. Tension among the Nile basin countries Tension among the Nile basin countries The water needs of the upper Nile basin riparian countries are barely being met The water needs of the upper Nile basin riparian countries are barely being met The only viable alternative is cooperation, a non- zero sum game, where the result is a win-win solution The only viable alternative is cooperation, a non- zero sum game, where the result is a win-win solution

19. Latest development On 22 of May 2009 Ministers of Water from the Nile Basin Initiative Member states met in Kinshasa, DRC. On 22 of May 2009 Ministers of Water from the Nile Basin Initiative Member states met in Kinshasa, DRC. The purpose of the meeting is to forge a way forward in finalizing the outstanding issues (Article 14b, Water Security) of the draft Cooperative Framework Agreement of the Nile Basin Initiative. The purpose of the meeting is to forge a way forward in finalizing the outstanding issues (Article 14b, Water Security) of the draft Cooperative Framework Agreement of the Nile Basin Initiative. The package proposed in Kinshasa, has 39 articles and 66 sub- articles. The package proposed in Kinshasa, has 39 articles and 66 sub- articles. Following this meeting, the 17th annual meeting of the Nile Council of Ministers of in charge of water affairs was held from 27-28 July 2009 in Alexandria, Egypt. Following this meeting, the 17th annual meeting of the Nile Council of Ministers of in charge of water affairs was held from 27-28 July 2009 in Alexandria, Egypt. At the two days meeting in Cairo despite further discussion on the article 14B, no compromise could be reached. At the two days meeting in Cairo despite further discussion on the article 14B, no compromise could be reached. Sudan and Egypt pushed for a six month extension. Sudan and Egypt pushed for a six month extension.

20. THE NEED FOR COOPERATION Ethiopia can stop silting Ethiopia can stop silting Boost upstream water shortage Boost upstream water shortage Reduce annual Nile Floods Reduce annual Nile Floods Decreasing the evaporation would increase the total volume of available water Decreasing the evaporation would increase the total volume of available water According to J.A. Allan, the Ethiopian storage facilities could increase water availability for Egypt as much as 15 billion cubic meter per year According to J.A. Allan, the Ethiopian storage facilities could increase water availability for Egypt as much as 15 billion cubic meter per year

21. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Both the 1929 and the 1959 agreements were only bilateral Both the 1929 and the 1959 agreements were only bilateral Discuss the issue of the Nile with a desire of finding a win-win solution Discuss the issue of the Nile with a desire of finding a win-win solution Food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, and environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient management of the Nile Water Food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, and environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient management of the Nile Water Human resources and capacity building are needed Human resources and capacity building are needed The potential for acute inter-state conflict over the Nile water arises primarily because there is no comprehensive agreement The potential for acute inter-state conflict over the Nile water arises primarily because there is no comprehensive agreement A strong riparian cooperation and coordination, through transbounday activities is also needed A strong riparian cooperation and coordination, through transbounday activities is also needed

22. Given the degree of mistrust characterizing the Nile riparian countries, securing the participation of all these countries in a project dealing with the development of the Nile waters should be considered a significant move in the direction of cooperation. Given the degree of mistrust characterizing the Nile riparian countries, securing the participation of all these countries in a project dealing with the development of the Nile waters should be considered a significant move in the direction of cooperation. The third parties may be able to play a very marginal role in the Nile basin’s hydropolitics The third parties may be able to play a very marginal role in the Nile basin’s hydropolitics Any meaningful achievement in this respect would come, first and foremost, from within-through good political will and combined efforts of the riparian states themselves. Any meaningful achievement in this respect would come, first and foremost, from within-through good political will and combined efforts of the riparian states themselves. To ensure sustainable development, the upper riparian states needs to appropriately utilize and simultaneously conserve their natural resources. To ensure sustainable development, the upper riparian states needs to appropriately utilize and simultaneously conserve their natural resources. The need to shift away from reliance on emergency food aid to long-term environmentally and socially sustainable development, including irrigation and watershed management, is imperative. The need to shift away from reliance on emergency food aid to long-term environmentally and socially sustainable development, including irrigation and watershed management, is imperative.

23. The attainment of food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, and environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient management of the Nile water and meaningful economic co-operation among the Nile basin countries. The attainment of food security, safe drinking water, sanitation, and environmental sustainability will depend on the efficient management of the Nile water and meaningful economic co-operation among the Nile basin countries. In this regard, the ways in which constrains of access to water and energy services by the rural poor should be addressed. In this regard, the ways in which constrains of access to water and energy services by the rural poor should be addressed.

24. Water is life