1. Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Study week on “Transgenic Plants for Food Security in the Context of Development” The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City, May 15, 2009

2. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Overview 1.Ending hunger as a global priority 2.The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3.The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4.Necessary policy and technology changes

3. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Consensus and call to action “The poor… should rise above poverty and wretchedness, and better their condition in life.” (Encyclical, Pope Leo XIII 1891)

4. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Approaches to overcome hunger 1.Development (economic, technological, institutional) 2.Charity (private, public) 3.Rights-based approach (human right to food, legal, advocacy) All three have an ethical base Synergies exist, e.g.: blocking 1 st undermines 3 rd, and cannot easily be compensated for by 2 nd.

5. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Messages of this presentation 1.Technology innovations in food and agriculture are cutting across and are pervasive 2.Agr. tech. powers come through development as part of other innovations 3.If agr. tech innovations are blocked, development is blocked, poverty and hunger is perpetuated

6. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Overview 1.Ending hunger as a global priority 2.The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3.The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4.Necessary policy and technology changes

7. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Growth matters: hunger - income linkage Source: von Braun, regressions based on data from World Bank (2005) and FAO (2005) Hunger and GDP/ capita in developing countries

8. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 1.4 billion people remain poor in the developing world Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.

9. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 The ultra poor concentrated in SSA People living on $0.75-$1 a day: 485 million People living on <$0.50 a day: 162 million People living on $0.50-$0.75 a day: 323 million Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.

10. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Rising number of hungry people in the developing world Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009 Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009. (in million) >1 bil. WFS target

11. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Progress in “hunger” reduction, Source:. IFPRI 2008. Global Hunger Index 2008 vs. 1990 lack of calories, child under-nutrition, child death

12. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Who is affected by hunger? Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.

13. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 …and average farm sizes are getting smaller IndiaChinaEthiopiaTanzania Hectares Average farm sizes in selected countries Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World Census and Indiastat.

14. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Agricultural productivity growth in developing countries: too low! % East Asia 2.7 South Asia 1.0 East Africa 0.4 West Africa 1.6 Southern Africa 1.3 Latin America 2.7 North Africa & West Asia 1.4 All regions 2.1 Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003 Source: von Braun et al. 2008. Small farms can be very productive

15. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Are we living in unusual times? Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database, BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008; Population data from U.S. Census Bureau Int’l database and UN1999. 1872-2008 prices and population

16. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 World Population: Population 2050 - from 6.7 to 9 Billion - Source: Worldmapper 2009. The good news: probably not more than 9 Billion

17. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 The development and demographic challenges to “feed the world” 1.overcome current hunger among 2 Billion 2.+ 2 – 3 Billion population; 3.+ increased demand (income growth from demographic dividend and development) ------------------------- = doubling food (by 2050)

18. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Land / Water Constraints There is at most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (R. Thompson, 2009)There is at most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (R. Thompson, 2009) The area of land in farm production could be doubled, but only by massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity, andThe area of land in farm production could be doubled, but only by massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity, and at high marginal costs of investment.at high marginal costs of investment.------------------------------- = a (relative) constraint

19. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Current Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.

20. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Agriculture and climate change: part of the problem and the solution Agriculture is part of the problem:Agriculture is part of the problem: Agriculture: 13.5 % of the CO 2 equivalents (Transport: 13.1%), and forestry 19% Agriculture is part of the solution:Agriculture is part of the solution: Biomass; CO 2 sequestration; soil management

21. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Climate change will affect agriculture Threat 1: Changes to production withThreat 1: Changes to production with - higher and more variable temperatures - changed precipitation patterns - more extreme events (droughts, floods), etc. Threat 2: climate change policiesThreat 2: climate change policies - for agriculture and poor farming communities if agriculture is not or not well included in Copenhagen etc.

22. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Overview 1.Ending hunger as a global priority 2.The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3.The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4.Necessary policy and technology changes

23. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Response 1: markets - price spike, 2007-08 Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009. Export bans; biofuels, not sharing in times of need

24. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Response 2: suffering among the poor Purchasing power: Purchasing power: 50-70% of income spent on food and wages do not adjust accordingly Assets and human capital: Assets and human capital: distressed sale of productive assets, withdrawal of girls from school, etc. + Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high) Nutrition is undermined Source: Joachim von Braun 2008.

25. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Response 3: Food riots Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Prices are data from FAO

26. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Financial crisis and depression Less capital for agriculture nowLess capital for agriculture now Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in agriculture expansionHigher debt burden for farmers who invested in agriculture expansion Reduced employment and wages of unskilled workersReduced employment and wages of unskilled workers Reduced remittancesReduced remittances

27. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Response 4: Pledges to address the food crisis (2008/9) Donor organization/countryPledge (bil.$) World Bank 2 EU (EC & national) 5 + USA6 Increase in public budgets on agric. and social protection bil. $US% change China23+27% India6+24% Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets. Plus 2009 stimulus packages: China: 109 bil. US$ for agriculture India: also increased ++

28. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Response 5: Looking for Land Source: IFPRI media and reporting analyses Note: Thicker lines reflect investments >100,000 ha; for some thinner lines, data on investment size is not available.

29. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Overview 1.Ending hunger as a global priority 2.The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3.The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4.Necessary policy and technology changes

30. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Strategic agenda 1.Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations 2.Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility 3.Expand social protection and child nutrition action Action needed for all 3

31. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Synergy between technology and institutional arrangements Challenges Role of technology Role of institutions Hunger and diet deficits ++ * ++ Population growth++ Agric productivity +++ * ++ Volatility of prices++++ Recession impact+++ Climate change and water +++ * +++ * = Strong role of bio-technology

32. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 What to do about volatility? 1.Keep trade open at times of global and regional food shortage is a must 2.Regulation of food commodity markets? (as part of financial markets) 3.Establish grain reserves policy at global level (emergency reserve, shared physical reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new institution at global level needed)

33. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Use bio-technology to address hunger and food insecurity 1.Farmers (higher productivity, small farmers can be major beneficiaries) 2.Consumers (improved health outcomes, reduction in food and health expenditure) 3.International trade (reduction in global food prices and volatility) 4.Insurance against food security risks (must have technology in stock)

34. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 If no investment in Biotech, what are the other options? Alternative 1: Use more environmental capital Alternative 2: Invest more in safety nets and direct action But, these alternatives are not feasible/sustainable

35. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Need a functional bio-safety system - evidence based (neither light, nor for blockade) Contained Use Experiments Confined Field Trials Deliberate Release Post Release Time Regulatory decision points

36. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Central for long-term agric. growth: Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion as part of this expansion And biotech as part of the public science policy strategy Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008. R&D allocation (mil. 2005 $)  in # of poor (mil.) 2008-2020 + Agr. output growth (% pts.) 2008-2020 2008*2013 SSA608 2,913-143.82.8 S Asia9083,111-124.62.4 Devel.ing World4,9759,951 -282.1 1.1

37. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Agriculture must be on the climate change agenda, but how? 1.Investment: agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund for technology to adapt 2.Incentives: C&T and carbon market may conflict with food security; phase in incentives first to reduce emissions, support technol. change 3.Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification base

38. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Different innovation needs and (risk) preferences of poor and rich: reconcile ! 1. Must not compartmentalize innovation (“we do not need it”! “we” / “they”?) as this stops innovation in it’s tracks. 2. Survival and basic needs are absolute (must not weight against relative preferences) 3. Solutions to overcome conflict must be found in the interest of the poor: - access to technology (implicit in right to food) - access to technology (implicit in right to food) - actively develop pro-poor technology - actively develop pro-poor technology - access to the product benefits (not to prevent the poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation if necessary) - access to the product benefits (not to prevent the poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation if necessary)

39. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 www.ifpri.org