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February 20, 2009 Transport infrastructure of Russia: specific features of investment.

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Presentation on theme: "February 20, 2009 Transport infrastructure of Russia: specific features of investment."— Presentation transcript:

1 February 20, 2009 Transport infrastructure of Russia: specific features of investment

2 Market situation and expectations of participants: mid-2008 MARKET Freight turnover growth rate – over 7% per year Growth of railway transportation tariff – 16% since the beginning of 2008 Government forecast: railway tariff growth within 5 years - 50%, inflation rate - 36%. ASSETS High degree of wear of the fleet of railway cars in the RF: peak of rolling stock decommissioning in – over 60 ths. cars per year, rolling stock decommissioning in – over 40 ths. cars per year Rolling stock deficit, growth of manufacturers prices of the rolling stock % per year Peak of rolling stock purchases by private operators: order waiting list of manufacturers – over 6 months Forecasts of 70% growth of the rolling stock production volumes in the next 5 years to satisfy the growing demand and fleet renewal Major source of acquisition of assets is credit or leasing CAPITAL Easy availability of loan capital for rolling stock acquisition and long-term trend of interest rate decline stimulate shorter loan terms and use of floating rates Rolling stock becomes a highly liquid and popular collateral (the discount reduces to 10-15%, the leasing down payment to 0%) The major currency of long-term credits (over 3 years) is US dollars The credit/leasing periods are generally much shorter than assets recoupment periods Surplus of capital against the backdrop of assets deficit and glowing expectations for further market growth

3 Current situation: early 2009 MARKET 33% drop of freight turnover in January 2009 compared to January 2008 Growth of railway transportation tariff - 5% since the beginning of 2009 Devaluation of the ruble by 40% over 4 months Problems of non-payments in settlements between consignors and operators, tougher requirements for settlements on the part of the RRW. As a result, redistribution of the client base and transportation volume in favour of big stable players ASSETS Lack of solvent demand for cars against the backdrop of rolling stock over-production Drop of rolling stock market prices: from 30% to 50% down from the peak values of August 2008 Forced outage: up to 150 ths. cars in RRW networks Mass withdrawal of operators from operating lease agreements CAPITAL Limited access to loan capital for a period of over 1 year Substantial depreciation of loan/leasing mortgage security Twofold growth of the cost of credit resources Numerous defaults of operators in credits, leasing and public loans Excess of assets against the backdrop of capital deficit and sharp drop of the demand for railway transportations

4 Market of railway transportation: comparison of indicators Market of railway transportation: comparison of indicators Price of an open car Cost of loan capital Monthly freight turnover volume Mid-2008 Early mln. rbl mln. tons 10% 20% 74.4 mln. tons 1.5 mln. rbl. Railway tariff growth +16% +5% -35% -45% +100% -69%

5 Situation on the railway transportation market: current state Cardinal change of the correlation between the demand and supply on the market of railway transportation Rapid change of market expectations: depressed mood instead of rosy forecasts Financial difficulties of many private operators who advocated aggressive investment policy amid mistakes in financial risk management: Long-term investments in railway assets were financed by short liabilities, including those in foreign currency Ruble revenues and financial obligations in foreign currency Mass collection of collateral under credits and lessees refusal to fulfill obligations обязательств Emergence of non-core participants on the market who became owners of railway assets

6 Situation on the market of railway assets: redistribution Rolling stock (non-core assets) concentration on balance sheets of lending institutions Desire to sell rolling stock to mobilize their monetary funds and to preserve the capital Prospect of further decline of rolling stock market prices due to lack of demand Need for coordinated actions in the new market conditions to preserve investment attractiveness of the industry Process of consolidating the railway operating ndustry

7 Situation on the market of railway transportation: government efforts of stabilization Proposals for faster checking and recovery of old cars Proposals for placing some part of the inventoried car fleet into the government reserve Proposals for programmes of government support of operator companies and rolling stock manufacturers Proposals for creating ВГК and consolidation of problem rolling stock on its balance Process of consolidating the railway operating industry

8 Market of railway transportation: Possible development options Market of railway transportation: Possible development options Centers of consolidation RRWs subsidiaries Large private operators

9 Market of railway transportation: possible centers of consolidation RRWs subsidiaries Dominant lead of RRW: volume of assets, influence Other participants: passive participation Government support

10 Market of railway transportation: possible centers of consolidation Possibility of parity relations between banks and business Large private operators Flexible terms of shareholder value realization in future

11 Thank you for your attention! Eurosib CJSC phone:+7 (812) fax: +7 (812) fax: +7 (812) Pavel Iljichev Finance director of Eurosib GC


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