1. Decision Support for Public Stake- holders assessing utilities responses to new EPA rules for coal-fired power plants Dalia Patiño-Echeverri Nicholas School of the Environment - Duke University CEDM Annual Meeting May 21-22, 2012, Carnegie Mellon University 1

2. Motivation Upcoming EPA regulations for power plants are forcing utilities to retrofit or replace coal-fired power plants PUCs are required to assess prudency of these investments but do not have adequate tools Other interveners that could provide alternative decision analysis to PUCs often lack tools as well Can we help improve decision making in this transcendental and complex issue? 2

3. Goal of this project: Provide decision making tools to facilitate analysis that: Is prospective and comprehensive  Considers current and potential future rules  Considers “all” possible investment alternatives Explicitly accounts for the multiple-criteria affecting the decision  Criteria are identified, ranked, and weighted  Tradeoffs between criteria are quantified Explicitly accounts for uncertainty judgments 3

4. 4 Identify role Identify multiple criteria Determine how uncertainty is characterized Expand / Improve PowerOptInvest PUC Project UC Berkeley, UCLA, UMN, UNC, USF In collaboration with: Using inputs from CEDM research: Communication materials on CCS, renewables. L.Fleishman Expert elicitation materials Morgan, G. Expert weighting approaches, Guvenc et al. Cost and environmental performance of Wind, natural gas, demand response With help from: Seven MEM students working on their MP Nicholas Institute Staff

5. Multiple-criteria affecting PUC decision making example 1: West Virginia: “to ensure that reasonably priced and reliable utility services are available to all customers and to increase business investment, job creation/retention, and the state’s overall economic competitiveness” 5

6. Multiple-criteria affecting PUC decision making example 2: Colorado: “Regulate effectively so that the people of Colorado receive safe, reliable, and reasonably priced services consistent with the economic, environmental and social values of our state” 6

7. Multi-criteria decision making tool 7 CriteriaMetric Weight Low unemployment High unemployment Capital and OM cost$/MWh5045 Job creation / retention# jobs per plant / ph2030 … Investment alternative Contribution to Criteria 1: COEContribution to Criteria 2: Jobs Scenario 1: High NG price Scenario2: Low NG Price Scenario 1: High NG price Scenario2: Low NG Price New NGCC New SuperCritical Coal Retrofitted Coal Methods: Historical Review / Interviews / Survey Instrument

8. Characterizing uncertainty 8

9. 9 Methods: Historical Review / Elicitation of subjective judgments

10. PowerOptInvest: UIDT available to public stake holders Presented in a number of NARUC webinars, conferences and private meetings Developing didactical “examples” and scenarios data to preload

13. Thank you! dalia.patino@duke.edu http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/climate/poweroptinvest 13