1. Sustainable, CO 2 -neutral Source of Energy

2. http://www.energycommission.org/

3. In the last 100 years, the Earth warmed up by ~1° C 100 years is nothing by geological time scales!

4. Temperature over the last 420,000 years Source: Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5. Shouldn’t we be worried about a new ice age? Forget about Global warming!

6. Previous ice ages are thought to be caused by changes in the orbit and inclination of the Earth. …but there is something new happening!

8. “ Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.” We continue to refine the predictions of Global Warming … The great American philosopher of the 20 th century

9. Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.) Climate change due to natural causes and human generated greenhouse gases Can we predict the past?

10. CO 2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea Level Continue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced 100 years 1,000 years Sea-level rise due to ice melting: several millennia Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: centuries to millennia Temperature stabilization: a few centuries CO 2 stabilization: 100 to 300 years CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions peak 0 to 100 years Today

11. The possibility / likelihood of global warming is disturbing … … but there may be a bigger problem! Chu

12. Consumption of Energy Increased by 85% Between 1970 and 1999 By 2020, Consumption will Triple Chu

13. World Energy Consumption by Region: 1970-2020 Chu

14. Global Energy Consumption, 1998 Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads) GasHydro Renewable How long will our fossil fuels last? Courtesy Nate Lewis

15. M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S. Domestic Production would Peak in 1970. Chu Production in the Lower 48 States Peak discovery: 1930 Peak production: 1972 Discoveries, Gb/a Production, Gb/a

16. World production of oil and gas is predicted to peak within 10 - 40 years 2010

17. Energy conservation and efficiency can buy time (a factor of ~2) but the fundamental problem remains

18. (in the U.S. in 2002) 1-4 ¢ 2.3-5.0 ¢ 6-8 ¢ 5-7 ¢ Today: Production Cost of Electricity 6-7 ¢ 25-50 ¢ Cost, ¢/kW-hr Courtesy Nate Lewis

19. Energy Costs Brazil Europe $0.05/kW-hr www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea Courtesy Nate Lewis

20. Potential Sources of Energy when Fossil Fuels Run Out Nuclear Fission Magnetic Plasma Confinement, Inertial Fusion Waste & Nuclear Proliferation Nuclear Fusion 10 TW = 10,000 new 1 GW reactors: i.e., a new reactor every other day for the next 50 years

21. Solar Energy We do not know how to store electrical energy on a massive scale

22. Wind Power Generation

23. Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO 2, water and nutrients into chemical energy

24. Photosynthesis Photovoltaic and electricity to chemical H O O H 2 2 2 sc M e e M CO Sugar H O O 2 2 2 Solar to Chemical Energy Semiconductor/ liquid junctions

25. Energy gained in corn ethanol production

26. Total CO 2 emissions

27. From Summary of Renewable Fuel Options (NCEP) “Unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol has potential to achieve near-zero net carbon emissions. Cultivation of cellulosic feedstocks requires very low energy inputs and, if sustainably managed, the carbon released during fuel combustion is reabsorbed by the growth of new feedstocks.”

28. ~ 450 M acres of land under cultivation in the US

29. Land with Crop Production Potential, 1990: 2.45x10 13 m 2 Cultivated Land, 1990: 0.897 x10 13 m 2 Additional Land needed to support 9 billion people: 0.416x10 13 m 2 Remaining land available for biomass energy: 1.28x10 13 m 2 Courtesy Nate Lewis Biomass resources estimate

30. Photosynthesis: the creation of chemical energy from CO 2, sunlight, water and nutrients

31. Engineering microbes to produce drugs Malaria is caused by a single-cell protozoan –Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito –Destroys red blood cells 1.5-2.7 million people die of malaria every year –90% of the victims are children –40% of the world’s population is at risk

32. Artemisinin-based drugs The current cost for an artemisinin- based drug is approximately $2.25. –Artemisinin generally adds $1.00-1.50 to the cost for drugs –Most developing countries spend less than $4/person/year on health care As many as 10-12 treatments are needed for each person annually World Health Organization estimates that 700 tons will be needed annually

33. Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling Identify the biosynthesis pathways in A. annua Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce methane from sunlight, CO 2, water and sustainable sources of nutrients?

34. HybridDevices Integration of many disciplines will be needed New ideas Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy Computing Sciences Materials Science Physics, Chemistry Life Sciences Nanoscience

35. A solution may lie at the interface of biology and the physical sciences at the nano-scale A diversified portfolio of investments is needed

36. National Concerns Sustainable, CO 2 neutral energy which is intimately tied to energy security 1) National security 3) The environment 2) Economic prosperity

37. Science The pursuit of technological goals has led to some of the most innovative science. Technology Science done with new technology has the best chance of discovery.

38. Lawrence Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley Who will keep the lights on after we run out of fossil fuel?