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2 Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Overview  Effort to understand who or what could shape the FUTURE of emergency management so that we can proactively begin addressing those issues TODAY  Supports emergency management leadership in its strategic decision-making and planning  Engages emergency managers, subject matter experts, other federal agencies, academia and the private sector to explore what factors could impact the future emergency management environment  Creates a shared space for coordinating research and analysis 2

3 Strategic Foresight Initiative Phases (1) Scoping Workshop (April 14) –Begin to define, refine, and highlight key drivers that may impact the future of emergency management (2) Network Collaboration (May-August) – Online community discussion focusing on better understanding emerging trends, key issue areas, and implications behind the emergency management drivers (3) Strategic Needs Workshop (August) –Synthesize and examine the results of the online collaboration to create an emergent picture of future strategic needs for emergency management (4) Network Engagement – Experts network continues to explore drivers and strategic needs and helps set ongoing research agenda 3

4 Drivers of Change 4 DRIVERDEFINITION Changing Role of the IndividualThrough rapid technology growth and evolving expectations, individuals are being empowered as never before. This evolution could lead to a dramatic redefinition of community where geography no longer defines one's community, and national loyalty is no longer a certainty. Rather community could become a conglomeration of like-minded individuals across the globe. This empowerment could also change how individuals interact with government and businesses and affect the definition of individual, family, and community resilience and preparedness. Climate ChangeRegardless of why the climate is changing, there could be impacts on emergency management in the United States. Particular community concerns include increased storm intensity, rising sea levels that threaten coastal areas, drought and fire risk, and the potential for shifting disease patterns. Potential international climate change effects could also lead to mass migration to the US, particularly from Caribbean and South American countries. Critical InfrastructureCurrently, US infrastructure is nearing the end of its life-cycle and will require significant investment to avoid crisis. Aging transportation, communication, energy and health care infrastructure pose significant threats and are in danger of failing over the next 15-20 years. Furthermore, evolving infrastructure interdependencies could introduce considerable risk to the nation. Equally, the need to invest in our infrastructure presents an opportunity to build more resilient and technologically advanced infrastructure to serve the US in the future. Evolving Terrorist ThreatHow terrorist threats and the security environment evolve will drive the future emergency management environment. Terrorist organizations are operating smarter, while the threat of homegrown terrorist threats continues to grow. Technological innovation will continue to present new opportunities for both terrorists and counterterrorism professionals. The proliferation of WMD, particularly nuclear and biological weapons will continue to be a major concern along with an increase in interaction between terrorist and transnational criminal organizations.

5 Drivers of Change 5 DRIVERDEFINITION Global InterdependenciesGlobalization has created a more complex and interdependent global environment where a crisis in one part of the world can have significant impacts on another (recent volcanic activity in Iceland is an example). Economic globalization, a more integrated global financial system and supply chain all create challenges. This global interdependence could lead to an increase in emergency management needs internationally and will require a better understanding of the changing international environment by US emergency management. Government BudgetsThe current economic environment brings the tenuous state of government budgets, particularly with respect to emergency management funding, into focus as a major driver of the future emergency management landscape. The current near-term forecasts for State, local, and Federal budgets are grim and could lead to funding sustainability problems for EM. In addition, some believe a shift in expectations from local governments to the Federal or State governments due to shrinking budgets could occur. Conversely, it is plausible that the economic environment within the United States will substantially improve over the coming 15-20 years and present a different set of implications for emergency management. Metro Area PopulationTrends show significant growth in metropolitan areas, particularly metro areas in vulnerable locations (eg: coastal, flood plains, drought-prone areas). While many view Metro Areas as primarily urban, they often include urban, suburban, and rural areas. Growth of metro areas has implications for land use, infrastructure, and economic integration. In addition, the movement of people to metro areas may create what have been termed "super-regions" where multiple metro areas essentially grow so large they merge together.

6 Drivers of Change 6 DRIVERDEFINITION Special Needs PopulationsThe overall US population is projected to grow significantly over the next 15-20 years. Within this overall population growth, there are three specific special needs populations that are also projected to grow that could become major drivers of the future environment: aging, socially vulnerable, and ethnically diverse populations. Trends show that the US population will become significantly older (over 65) over the next 15-20 years. Social vulnerability, particularly poverty could be a major driver, especially as metro areas continue to grow. Finally, projections show the US becoming a much more diverse country, with a heavy increase of both Hispanic and Asian citizens. Technological Innovation and DependencyRapid technological innovation is expected to continue over the next 15-20 years with the potential for dramatic changes in how we live, work and play. Medical breakthroughs, improvements in how we model and warn about disasters, and the implications of bio and nanotechnology on the security environment, are examples of important technological innovations that could dramatically impact emergency management. This rapid innovation has led to an increasing dependency on technology by the United States, including the emergency management community. Universal Access to and Use of InformationThe explosion of social media and personal communications technology will continue to increase real-time access and delivery of information. We already see a significant amount of "spontaneous reporting" where individuals at or near the scene of an incident instantly post video, images, text messages, etc from their personal communications device. This has created an environment of constant information flow that presents both great opportunities and challenges. The new patterns of information flow have changed the role of the mainstream/traditional media while making it increasingly difficult for emergency management to break through the cluttered information market.

7 Next Steps  Online and Non-line collaboration around key drivers, trends, and key issue areas  Special events and targeted conferences  Strategic Needs Conference (August 2010)  Other ideas? 7

8 Getting Involved  Brian Scully (SFI Program Lead) 202.646.2921  8


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