1. Intelligent Vehicles: A New World Coming…..
Presentation to the Casualty Actuarial Society
May 8-9, 2000
Richard Bishop
Richard Bishop Consulting

2. IV’s: This Joint is Jumpin’….
During/After Crash Technology Evolving
Telematics is exploding
“Information Layer” -- in-vehicle information
Driver Assistance systems entering market
“Control Layer” -- helps driver drive more safely, productively, efficiently
Automated Driving
“electronic chauffeur”
the ultimate in personalized travel

3. Crash-Related Technology
Occupant Sensing
Beyond child-seat vs. no-child-seat
Detection of head/body proximity for optimum airbag deployment
Non-invasive monitoring via
electrical fields
radar
pressure sensing in seat

4. Crash-Related Technology
Black Boxes
Extensive data available now on in-vehicle truck computers: hard braking time/intensity, speed, GPS location, rapid accelerations, even radar data
Truck industry discussing a formal black box spec
American Trucking Association taking a stand
Congress may get into the act
Similar data available in cars
Not a technical issue -- only societal/political
In-vehicle data accessible by subpoena

5. Crash-Related Technology
Automatic Collision Notification (ACN)
Crash sensors detect crash
Location of vehicle known thru Global Positioning Satellite system
Cellular signal goes to local public safety office (911)
Successful test operating in Buffalo since 1998
company formed to commercialize
Heavy truck ACN being tested by Mack Trucks

6. Telematics
In-vehicle internet access, , navigation, passenger entertainment, digital radio, multimedia, concierge services
Home, office, and now the car: telematics is the “last frontier” of internet access
Industry is gearing up for plug-n-play operation
Microsoft “Windows CE for Automotive”
Auto industry defining standards
Major players in the game: US Wireless, Intel, AT&T, etc.

7. Telematics……. Distracted Drivers?
Safety community sees obvious potential for driver distraction
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
sponsoring joint research examining “driver workload” issues
sponsoring meetings and internet forum (
Issues under examination in Europe, Japan

8. Driver Assistance Systems: Collision Warning
Trucks first, then cars
Over 50,000 heavy trucks equipped with Eaton-Vorad radar-based system
covers forward zone and right blind spot
selling 10,000 per year
accident reductions of 50% or greater not unusual for some fleets (self-insured fleets see direct benefit)
Lane departure warning entered heavy truck market in 1999
based on image processing
first on Mercedes trucks (Europe), followed by Freightliner (U.S.)
suitable for automotive aftermarket

9. Assistware’s Lane Departure Warning System

10. Driver Assistance Systems: Collision Avoidance
Collision Avoidance: intervening to control the vehicle to avoid a crash
rear-end collisions, road departure, lane changes, etc.
huge “trustworthiness” issues
creates a new dimension to liability issues
NHTSA - GM: $35M cost-shared project
Major work underway worldwide
Expect systems to enter market around 2004
IF we can do it, imagine the benefits!

11. Driver Assistance Systems: Adaptive Cruise Control
ACC: Foot-free driving
forward-looking radar “sees” slower vehicles ahead
system automatically adjusts speed and maintains a selectable following distance
desired speed is resumed when the way ahead is clear
Now on the market for around $1500
Trucks: US (2000)
Cars: Japan (1997), Europe (1999), US (2000?)

12. Driver Assistance Systems: Adaptive Cruise Control
ACC -- questions abound
Will drivers remain attentive?
Will driving be less stressful, improving driver performance?
Will dense traffic flow in a more orderly way?
System intentionally not marketed as a safety system
deceleration is smooth, not intended to avoid a crash
NHSTA study found that people liked the system and used it responsibly

13. Driver Assistance Systems: Impairment Monitoring
Is Mr./Ms. Driver Fit to Drive???
Technology exists to monitor:
driving performance:
lane keeping (SPI), steering wheel movements
physiological factors:
ocular measures: blink rate, blink velocity, % eye closure…. you name it
head position monitoring

14. Driver Assistance Systems: Impairment Monitoring
Major government research is focused on trucking
fatigue monitors
Systems are in product development cycle for cars and trucks
On the market:
Trucks: Basic systems now, advanced systems 2 years away
Cars: higher reliability needed; about 5 years off

15. Headtrak: Proximity Array Sensing System

16. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
“Co-Pilot” functions will continue to emerge
Stop-n-go ACC for congested traffic (~2003)
Lane keeping on freeways (~2004)
Merge assistance (~2006)
Low Speed Automation!
Automated throttle, brakes, steering in tedious stop-n-go traffic
being developed in Europe, Japan
availability as early as 2005 overseas, 2007 in U.S.

17. Automated Driving: it’s coming!
Hands-off, feet-off driving
Demonstrated in 1997 by National Automated Highway System Consortium
Basic system capability exists
machine intelligence & machine perception now being refined by researchers (California, France, Germany, Japan, Korea)
must transform into an affordable, trustworthy product
Bishop prediction: available in 2010
Revolutionary changes in society<>travel

18. Insurance Implications
Enhanced Driver-Vehicle Interface (DVI)
Legal / liability issues
Opportunities for new products based on driver/vehicle monitoring

19. Insurance Implications: Enhanced DVI
Driver-vehicle interface evolving
voice-activated control, hands-free cellular phone, “read” to driver
OK, hands are on the wheel -- but where is the driver’s attention?
Eye-tracking technology tracks attention placement
Driver warnings tuned to attention placement
OK, attention is on the road -- but where is driver’s brain? Unsolved mystery….

20. Insurance Implications: Legal / Liability Issues
Shared control of vehicle operation increases risk to vehicle manufacturers -- tort liability
… but fewer crashes reduces the existing litigation load
And, consumers must understand what systems do and don’t do
cross-industry educational campaign?

21. Insurance Implications: New Product Opportunities?
What can be monitored that provides an indication of driver behavior?
Frequency of hard accelerations, hard braking, excess speed, excess lateral acceleration
Driving while fatigued
Driving with insufficient attention on the road
What should be monitored?
Insurance industry, regulators, and consumers will decide

22. Resources / Events
USDOT Intelligent Vehicle Initiative National Meeting (
July 19-20, Washington, D.C.
Japan’s Demo 2000 (
December 5-8, Tsukuba City, Japan
ITS America (
-- Continued updates and reporting

23. Thank you.