1. Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain Japan’s Power Shift and Economic Regionalism in the New Millennium Hiroyuki Hoshiro Institute of Social Science, TOKYO University

2.  1 Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community”  2 Japan’s EPA Policy: Current States  3 Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism  Business  Agriculture  Organized Labor  4 Japan’s government Change and Three Societal Actors  5 (Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation Outline

3.  Japan’s Government Change  LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) → DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) in August 2009  New Prime Minister Hatoyama’s Two Pet Foreign Policies  Equal Japan-US Relationship  Building an “East Asian Community”  → No Substantial Progress: Why??  East Asian Community = EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement)  East Asia = ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, NZ) Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community”

4. Japan’s EPA: Current States

5.  Thailand’s and India’s demand  “to allow nurses and careworkers to work in Japan”  → No agreements made  No mentions with “East Asian Community” in Naoto Kan’s policy speech in January 2011 Japan’s EPA: some evidences

6.  What are important factors promote/prevent economic regionalism in East Asia?  Domino (Baldwin)  Norm, Idea (Acharya)  Power Relations (Galia )  → Domestic Interest Groups  Land, capital, and lobor Previous studies

7.  Export Industries → In favor of Free Trade  Nippon Keidanren (1300 leading firms & 130 major industrial organizations ) supports EPA with East Asia  Domestic Industries →  Japan Textile Federation (JTF) → Supports EPA  Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (small and medium firms) also supports  “Big Business Chance” Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Firms--

8.  Well-organized Japanese agriculture groups → Strongly Oppose to Tree Trade  Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) → Oppose, and/ or request “exceptional measure”--excluding rice, starch, and diary products from agreements–  Organized labor → oppose to EPA (mobilizing foreign workers)  Rengo (biggest labor union) Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Agriculture and Labor--

9. Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism Farmers Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Labor Union EPA CONPRO

10.  So called “agricultural policy triangle”  Government Change in 2009 Destroyed this triangle??  → NO Japan’s government Change and Tree Societal Actors JA LDP’s zoku (influential Diet members) MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries)

11. Agriculture and DPJ

12.  Some agricultural groups (e.g. In Aomori, Nagano, and Saga) changed support from LDP to DPJ  DPJ’s policy proposal on the “creation of Individual (household) income support for agriculture system”  DPJ’s Manifesto in 2009 “measures (to promote the conclusion of EPAs) will not include any which are detrimental to the safety and stable supply of food, increasing Japan’s food self-sufficiency ration, and the development of Japan’s agricultural industry and its farming villages” (This sentence did not exist in the 2005 Manifesto) Agriculture and DPJ

13. Agriculture and LDP/DPJ Farmers EPA CONPRO LDP DPJ

14. Organized Labor and DPJ

16. Organized Labor and LDP/DPJ Labor Union EPA CONPRO LDP DPJ

17.  DPJ’s policy to “ban political donations by corporations and other organizations” in order to “end public distrust of politics” (2009 Manifesto) Business Groups and LDP/DPJ

19. Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Big Business, Medium and Small Firms EPA CONPRO LDP DPJ

20. Three Societal Interests and LDP over EPA Farmers Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Labor Union EPA CONPRO LDP

21. Three Societal Interests and DPJ over EPA Farmers Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Big Business, Medium and Small Firms Labor Union EPA CONPRO DPJ

22.  Economic Regionalism will not be progressed under the DPJ government  No support from Business (in favor of EPA)  Support from Agriculture and Labor (oppose to EPA)  → No strong Force to pursue EPA, “in vain”  Earthquake……  Next step is to trace the process of policy-making and negotiations (Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation