1. THE THREATS OF POPULISM: EUROPE’S RELUCTANT RADICALS Marley Morris St Antony’s College, Oxford 12 November 2013

2. Leaving aside the committed radicals, we focused on: The reluctant radicals who have cast a vote for a populist party but do not ‘feel close’ to those parties (much less than committed core voters do). The potential radicals who have not cast a vote for a populist party but agree with their views. This enables us to map the softer outer- core of support for these parties.

3. Why the reluctant radicals? The uncommitted, soft supporters of right-wing populism Two reasons to focus on them. (1) They make up a significant proportion of the right-wing populist electorate

4. Beyond the headlines Anti-Europeanism, anti-elitism, or anti-immigration views are hallmarks of right-wing populist politics, but tackling them generically is both ethically (for progressives) and practically difficult. Understanding – and acting on – the specific historical, cultural and emotional springs of the surface mobilisation against Europe or immigration would allow policy-makers to make a more appealing and, above all, more implementable offer to the reluctant radicals.

5. France: the disconnected radical Low levels of trust in people Low levels of interest in politics Reside in peri-urban areas

6. The Netherlands: the nostalgic radical Social conservatism in a new guise? Deep distrust in modern politics Nostalgia for an older form of consensus

7. Finland: The alienated radical Thirty-three per cent say their main reason for voting for the True Finns was to generate change. Working class and middle-aged A crisis of modernity and masculinity?

8. The prospects for populism Image: Ssolbergj Ssolbergj GUE-NGL S & D Greens / EFA ALDE EPP ECR EFD Non-Attached

9. Policy-making in the European Parliament Average number of reports per MEP for each of the political groups

10. Voting power Percentage of votes won by each of the political groups on all policy areas (14.07.09 — 14.07.12)

11. Voting coalitions EFD matching other European party groups on all policy areas (14.07.09 — 14.07.12)

12. Speechmaking Average numbers of questions and speeches per MEP

13. Conflicted Politicians

14. Group Cohesion Comparative cohesion rates of political groups in the European Parliament (14.07.09—14.07.12)

15. The price of nationalism? Stigmatisation Conflicting nationalisms Ideological divergence

16. Scenarios for the next Parliament UKIP Finns Party Danish People’s Party Lega Nord Order and Justice Independent Greeks Front National PVV Vlaams Belang FPÖ Europe of Freedom and Democracy A new populist group Non-Attached Members Jobbik MS5 Image: Remi Noyon, Niccolò CarantiRemi NoyonNiccolò Caranti

17. Scenarios for the next Parliament Front National PVV Vlaams Belang FPÖ Lega Nord A new populist group Non-Attached Members Jobbik UKIP MS5 Finns Party Danish People’s Party Image: Remi Noyon, Jennifer Jane MillsRemi NoyonJennifer Jane Mills

18. Scenarios for the next Parliament Image: Niccolò CarantiNiccolò Caranti UKIP Finns Party Danish People’s Party Lega Nord Order and Justice Independent Greeks Europe of Freedom and Democracy Non-Attached Members Jobbik MS5 Front National PVV Vlaams Belang FPÖ Sweden Democrats

19. Thank you! counterpoint.uk.com