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Northwest Independent School District 3Q13 Quarterly Report Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow.

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Presentation on theme: "Northwest Independent School District 3Q13 Quarterly Report Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow."— Presentation transcript:

1 Northwest Independent School District 3Q13 Quarterly Report Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

2 2 Economic Conditions Texas added 1 new job for every 3 people from 2000 to 2013, the U.S. added 1 job for every 7 people, Texas outperformed the U.S. job creation rate by more than two-to-one. ( Forbes ) Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. ( Texas Comptroller’s Office ) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. ( http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ ) http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago ( City Journal – Winter 2013 ) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information ( August 2013 ) - U.S. 7.6% - Texas 6.5% - DFW MSA 6.2% - Tarrant County 5.9% - Fort Worth 6.2% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. ( Dallas Business Journal )

3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. – Sept. 2013 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3

4 National Economic Overview Top 5 MSAs Ranked by Annualized New Home Starts 2013 Source: Metrostudy 4

5 DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings 5

6 DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 23,422-14% DOM 52-25% Monthly Supply 3.2-28% 6

7 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q13 RankDistrict NameAnnual StartsAnnual ClosingsVDLFuture 1Frisco ISD3,0082,5344,0729,073 2Northwest ISD1,2601,1011,75022,174 3Denton ISD1,2341,1012,33014,585 4Keller ISD8138441,2693,218 5Lewisville ISD9468341,5982,549 6Dallas ISD8927932,1387,329 7Prosper ISD9187711,49415,320 8McKinney ISD7146621,2477,225 9Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD7256611,60320,004 10Little Elm ISD6356538077,031 11Mansfield ISD6186157575,692 12Allen ISD6065639661,373 13Rockwall ISD5554421,6308,108 14Crowley ISD3744061,8978,229 15Plano ISD3723938281,361 16Forney ISD4413781,40111,477 17Wylie ISD3443565745,324 18Fort Worth ISD347 1,0694,638 19Burleson ISD3913357273,662 20Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD295329408923 21Anna ISD3483123763,680 22Midlothian ISD3423091,01214,268 23Garland ISD2993066133,141 24Waxahachie ISD2712269319,085 25HEB ISD2922054316,146 26Birdville ISD198205170376 27Weatherford ISD234200697604 28Aledo ISD27819680615,618 29Royse City ISD2261969557,271 30Melissa ISD1691952345,420 7

8 Foreclosures 8 ISD1Q132Q133Q13 Dallas ISD479500312 Fort Worth ISD181228133 Arlington ISD157183112 Garland ISD175166112 Mansfield ISD118127101 Mesquite ISD16314685 Keller ISD10010677 Crowley ISD779460 Grand Prairie ISD1008658 Birdville ISD707857 De Soto ISD767156 Lewisville ISD11011556 Frisco ISD867155 Plano ISD1018355 Duncanville ISD687243 Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD649054 Denton ISD718345 Richardson ISD865745 Rockwall ISD41 40 Irving ISD596638 Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD586537 Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD325733 Northwest ISD546431 McKinney ISD626830 Little Elm ISD33 21 Azle ISD251916 Grapevine-Colleyville ISD17914 Royse City ISD202312 Carroll ISD456 Midlothian ISD30121

9 New Housing Activity 3Q13 starts are up above 350 for the second straight quarter, YTD starts are up 20% over 2012 YTD. Closings are maintaining the pace of starts and will likely be over 1,000 units for at least 7 straight years. Inventory is back up above 600 for the first time in more than 3 years. Northwest ISD Housing Activity 9 Starts200820092010201120122013Closings200820092010201120122013 1Q339185303235251288 1Q462233232230218226 2Q419251345268298362 2Q446276340230331318 3Q387366264282286353 3Q444303348263333300 4Q275258204256257 4Q421308276295258 Total1,4201,0601,1161,0411,0921,003 Total1,7731,1201,1961,0181,140844

10 Annual Closing Distribution 3Q13 10 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) RankSubdivision Annual Starts Annual Closings 1Sendera Ranch (Thompson)149120 2Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck)105101 3Harmon Ranch10688 4Tehama Ridge9886 5Briarwyck (Roanoke)9377 6Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview)7067 7Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth)6467 8Trophy Club/Turnberry5445 9Valley Ridge3742 10Ranches, The6335 TOTALS839728

11 Vacant Developed Lots 3Q13 11 Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots) RankSubdivisionVDLFuture 1Sendera Ranch (Thompson)1253824 2Fairway Ranch114382 3Valley Ridge990 4Trophy Club/Highlands at (Beck)9891 5Highlands Glen950 6Harmon Ranch84409 7Tehama Ridge830 8Willow Ridge Estates (Ft. Worth)76376 9Trophy Club/Highlands at (Lakeview)6560 10Willow Springs Ranch630 TOTALS9025,142

12 Future Lots 3Q13 12 Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) RankSubdivisionVDLFuture 1Tradition04517 2Sendera Ranch (Thompson)1253824 3Sendera Ranch (Sendera Ranch)452802 4Bonds Ranch/Bonds Ranch (NWISD)01162 5Richmond0740 6Canyon Falls (Northlake)0726 7Trails of Fossil Creek52660 8Shale Creek33600 9Seventeen Lakes60551 10Elizabeth Creek Estates0539 TOTALS31516,121

13 13 Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category Elementary Zone Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter ClosingsInventory Vacant Dev. LotsFuture Lots BECK115371132756216160 CLARA LOVE16234340311 COX4212357292331,202 GRANGER0091000 HASLET37634913781,100 HATFIELD8218441952456,078 HUGHES100207726401300 JUSTIN28918315153365 LAKEVIEW143411343963110237 NANCE462046424811,511 PETERSON227671947191192483 PRAIRIE VIEW28152511957786 ROANOKE9331771644491,216 SCHLUTER1234710229651361,825 SENDERA RANCH812935452,802 SEVEN HILLS23610514100274 THOMPSON1492112037661253,824 Grand Total1,2603531,1013006001,75022,174

14 Enrollment History *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 14 Year (Oct.)EE/PKK1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12thTotalGrowth % 2009/10 2521,2271,2201,2181,1481,1271,1511,0581,1011,0441,1141,013821670 14,164 2010/11 2841,2841,2971,3031,2821,2011,2191,2301,1221,1161,2191,122925766 15,3701,2068.5% 2011/12 3011,3831,3911,4071,3681,3311,2911,3171,2811,1901,2781,2101,013865 16,6261,2568.2% 2012/13 3001,4481,4651,4481,4661,4331,4021,4001,3751,3251,3441,3021,153950 17,8111,1857.1% 2013/14 2911,5571,5901,5911,5711,6071,5741,3981,4381,4191,4781,2841,2101,128 19,1361,3257.4% EE/PKK1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th 2010/111.131.051.061.071.05 1.081.071.061.011.171.010.910.93 2011/121.061.08 1.051.041.071.081.041.061.150.990.900.94 2012/131.001.051.061.04 1.05 1.081.041.031.131.020.950.94 2013/140.971.081.101.091.081.10 1.001.03 1.120.960.930.98 Roll-up3001,557 1,5901,5911,5711,6071,5741,3981,4381,4191,4781,2841,21019,574438 Prev Cohort3001,6741,7101,7271,7261,7221,7651,5691,4361,4841,5831,4121,1931,18420,4851,349 3-Year Cohort3001,6601,7181,7021,6851,6661,7281,6591,4501,4991,6031,4621,1921,15020,4751,339

15 15 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct.)EE/PKK1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12thTotalGrowth % 2009/10 2521,2271,2201,2181,1481,1271,1511,0581,1011,0441,1141,013821670 14,164 2010/11 2841,2841,2971,3031,2821,2011,2191,2301,1221,1161,2191,122925766 15,3701,2068.5% 2011/12 3011,3831,3911,4071,3681,3311,2911,3171,2811,1901,2781,2101,013865 16,6261,2568.2% 2012/13 3001,4481,4651,4481,4661,4331,4021,4001,3751,3251,3441,3021,153950 17,8111,1857.1% 2013/14 2911,5571,5901,5911,5711,6071,5741,3981,4381,4191,4781,2841,2101,128 19,1361,3257.4% 2014/15 2911,6611,6901,6881,7041,6661,6951,5991,4581,5001,6181,4081,1971,185 20,3601,2246.4% 2015/16 2911,7601,7941,7891,7871,8031,7561,7331,6481,5051,7081,5781,3201,177 21,6491,2906.3% 2016/17 2911,8561,8981,899 1,9051,7811,7781,6911,7051,6451,4761,298 23,0211,3716.3% 2017/18 2911,9682,0122,0132,0172,0162,0081,9411,8341,8311,9461,6431,5391,455 24,5141,4936.5% 2018/19 2912,0962,1382,1432,1352,1522,1342,0451,9921,8862,0821,8851,5381,516 26,0331,5196.2% 2019/20 2912,2242,2692,2682,2642,2662,2812,1642,0932,0492,1462,0121,7681,514 27,6091,5756.1% 2020/21 2912,3592,3972,4052,3972,4132,4022,3192,2222,1522,3342,0751,8881,741 29,3951,7866.5% 2021/22 2912,5032,5462,5422,5452,5542,5602,4412,3792,2852,4432,2591,9471,853 31,1481,7536.0% 2022/23 2912,6552,700 2,6922,7152,7112,6022,5042,4482,5932,3642,1211,910 33,0061,8576.0% 2023/24 2912,8162,8642,8602,8592,8712,8832,7582,6702,5772,7772,5092,2212,081 35,0372,0316.2% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

16 16 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary School Campus CurrentProjections Elementary Schools2013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/24 Beck Elementary7888379269971,0681,1181,1681,2061,2551,3021,349 Clara Love Elementary632697728769782825832816815818821 Cox Elementary357391446477527573633701777860954 Granger Elementary882879880862840806788782780783789 Haslet Elementary484475497495514542564590616644672 Hatfield Elementary3864274705225816357087858659481033 Hughes Elementary596614592620629 646662681701712 Justin Elementary503524536557584614632651668677685 Lakeview Elementary544562590616625648670689707726745 Nance Elementary483505510519527554575596621647673 Peterson Elementary69576683989692796210041043108611301176 Prairie View Elementary486523548588601617632644661680699 Roanoke Elementary86493395610171095118612831394151116381776 Sendera Ranch Elementary605668759832969114612891435157917151862 Seven Hills Elementary54657760864771076482589796910481133 Schluter Elementay451496545621689775876986111312551414 Thompson Elementary481520552614659694740788838893951 TOTAL ELEMENTARY9,78110,39510,98011,64712,32513,08913,86314,66415,54116,46417,444 Elementary growth819614586666678764773801877922980

17 17 Ten Year Forecast By Middle School and High School Campus CurrentProjections Middle Schools2013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232019/21 Chisholm Trail Middle School8839129841,0381,1281,1631,2601,3411,4381,5451,661 Gene Pike Middle School7697757917958869289811,0401,1361,1961,242 Medlin Middle School9761,0521,1201,1821,2171,2761,3511,4431,5261,6131,690 Tidwell Middle School9291,0381,1961,3751,5081,6191,7061,7491,7651,8291,900 Wilson Middle School6987807958608679371,0081,1201,2401,3711,512 TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOL4,2554,5574,8865,2505,6065,9236,3066,6937,1057,5548,005 MIDDLE SCHOOL GROWTH155302329364356317383387412449451 High Schools2013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232019/21 Northwest High School2,7162,8823,0933,3073,4693,6523,8244,0654,2734,5744,934 Byron Nelson High School2,2602,3992,5632,6902,9873,2423,4893,8464,1024,2874,526 Steele Accelerated High School90 Denton County JJAEP36666666666 Denton Creek31 TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL5,1005,4085,7836,1246,5837,0217,4408,0388,5028,9889,587 HIGH SCHOOL GROWTH351308375341459438419598464486599 TOTAL19,13620,36021,64923,02124,51426,03327,60929,39531,14833,00635,036 Growth1,3251,2241,2901,3711,4931,5191,5751,7861,7531,8572,030 % Growth7.4%6.4%6.3% 6.5%6.2%6.1%6.5%6.0% 6.2%

18 Summary 18 2013 could see over 1,300 new homes. District has approximately 1,750 VDL, only a 18 month supply of lots Peterson, Thompson and Lakeview have all had over 140 starts in the last 12 months. Northwest ISD can expect an increase of approximately 6,247 students during the next 5 years. 2017/18 enrollment projection 23,927 and will likely exceed 25,000 in the following year.


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