1. Thawing of Permafrost Peatland and Hydrological Implications Masaki Hayashi 1, Bill Quinton 2, Alastair McClymont 1, Larry Bentley 1, Brendan Christensen 1 1 Geoscience, University of Calgary 2 Geography & Env. Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University

2. Prediction of Permafrost Thaw, 1990-2090 pink: complete thawing Model Assumptions Vertical energy transfer Large (  50 km) grids No lateral flow of water and energy Zhang et al. (2008. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35: L02502) Reality (Scotty Creek) 1 km lake peat plateau isolated bog connected bog channel fen Hay River Lowland Scotty Creek

3. precipitation (mm) annual runoff (mm) Runoff = Total flow / Drainage area Annual Total Basin Runoff near Ft. Simpson Four Rivers (150-1,900 km 2 ), Similar Landcovers

4. channel fen flat bog peat plateau

5. permafrost Peat Plateaus Have Permafrost Cores Water flows over frozen peat. channel fen bog

6. ground surf. frost table 0.5 m 0.9 m Frost Table in Late August 2006 GS: ground surface FT: frost table

7. zfzf T = 0 T = T s frost table ground srf. QmQm Conduction dominates heat flux. Q m = b (T s – 0) / z f b : bulk thermal conductivity Hayashi et al. (2007, Hydrol. Proces. 21: 2610-2622) (W m -1 K -1 ) water content Differential Thawing by Conduction Wet spots thaw faster.

8. 2D Survey of Frost Table (FT) June 12, 2006 ground surf. FT FT measured using FT probe on 0.25 m grids. Wright et al. (2009, Water Resour. Res. 45: W05414) Subsurface flow simulation: 15 mm of rain added. Boussinesq equation is numerically solved.

9. Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) fen bog 0 m 204080 fen plateau bog 0 m 15 5 10 20 60 resistivity (  m) 10 2 10 3 10 4 FT clay unfrozen peat permafrost

10. 0 m 204080 fen plateau bog 0 m 15 5 10 20 60 resistivity (  m) 10 2 10 3 10 4 FT ERI Line 1: Peat Plateau Transect 0 2 4 20 m30405060clay unfrozen peat permafrost depression

11. 100m ERI Line 2: Cross-Bog Transect 0 m 204080 fenisolated bogbog 0 m 15 5 10 20 60 resistivity (  m) 10 2 10 3 10 4 clayclay sand lens

12. Conceptual Model of Permafrost Thaw saturated, frozen peat saturated, thawed peat unsaturated, thawed peat new bog 1 2 3 preferential thaw peat plateau 1.Thinning of canopy.  Increase in radiation energy input. 2.Local thawing.  Water-energy feedback causes further thawing. 3.Wet condition prevents trees from growing back.  New bog forms.

13. 1977 Delineation of Peat Plateau on Aerial Images 200 m Quinton et al. (2011, Hydrol. Proces., 25: 152)

14. 2008 Delineation of Peat Plateau on Aerial Images Peat Plateau Area 1977: 53% 2008: 43% 200 m Quinton et al. (2011, Hydrol. Proces., 25: 152)

15. Aug. 2002 Datalogger Changes Evident on the Ground July 2010Datalogger

16. 200 m Modelling Peat Plateau Runoff Hydraulically equivalent plateau Drainage of ground- water controlled by: - Radius - Gradient - K sat distribution - Frost-table depth Similar to MESH, but the moving FT is the challenge.

17. Coupled Permafrost-Hydrology Model for Circular Peat Plateau Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST) model Zhang et al. (2008) vertical transfer Simple Fill and Spill Hydrology (SFASH) model Wright et al. (2009) lateral drainage

18. NEST-SFASH Preliminary Results frost table (m) J F M A M J J A S O N D 20092010 J F M A M J J A S O N D 20092010 water flux (mm/d)

20. Challenges and the Way Forward 1.Storage and flow of runoff water in the fen-bog network  Basin-scale hydrological model. 2.Incorporate lateral thawing of permafrost in long- term model simulation (e.g. 50 years). 3.Ecology-hydrology feedback processes. IP3 Legacy 1.Scotty Creek research basin 2.Close collaboration with the local First Nation. 3.WLU-Northwest Territories Partnership for Research and Training (2010-2020, $10M project).

21. People Nicole Wright, Laura Chasmer, Chris Hopkinson, Tyler Veness, Rob Schincariol, and many others Funding IP3 Network International Polar Year Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada Research Chair Program Environment Canada Science Horizons Program Logistical Support Water Survey of Canada Environment Canada (NWRI) Liidlii Kue First Nations Acknowledgements