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 CRUDE OIL & FUELS “Outlook for 2013 and Beyond” 7 th Annual Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit - Jan. 30, 2013 Robert Gough - Director of Content Development.

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Presentation on theme: " CRUDE OIL & FUELS “Outlook for 2013 and Beyond” 7 th Annual Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit - Jan. 30, 2013 Robert Gough - Director of Content Development."— Presentation transcript:

1  CRUDE OIL & FUELS “Outlook for 2013 and Beyond” 7 th Annual Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit - Jan. 30, 2013 Robert Gough - Director of Content Development Oil Price Information Service

2 OPIS 2013 Outlook: A Kinder, Gentler, Lower-Price Year for Gasoline  Good riddance  Welcome 2013!  Canada and the Midwest to the rescue!  Spring will find prices hopping but just not as high.  The West will remain wild.  Crudely speaking, we are a diverse nation.

3 Good riddance 2012!  Gasoline prices averaged a record $3.6035/gal last year ($2.348/gal and $2.78/gal in 2010 and 2009).  They hit a peak of $3.9357/gal on Apr. 5 and again Apr. 6.  The highest gasoline prices in nation were in California - $4.6707/gal in early October.  Americans spent ~$479 billion on gasoline last year; more than 2x $183 billion spent just 10 years ago.

4 Welcome 2013!  OPIS predicts 2013 average will be $3.25-$3.50/gal.  That’s 10cts lower than 2012’s average.  Possible peak of $3.90/gal.  The last calendar day the U.S. average price fell below $3/gal was Dec. 22, There’s a good chance this 25- month string will be broken in 2013.

5 Canada and the Midwest to the rescue!  Expect heavy discounts on crudes from Canada and Midwest.  Rising rig counts (particularly in the Bakken shale region of N. Dakota, the Eagle Ford shale play of south central Texas and numerous other North American “tight” oil supply points).  Sustained world prices above $90/bbl and technological improvements in drilling result in highest domestic crude oil output since spring 1993.

6 Canada and the Midwest to the rescue!  Barring a price collapse, early in the first quarter we should see U.S. crude oil production regularly top 7 million b/d.  Domestic crude output could top 8 million b/d in the next 15 months (not seen since 1988).  Domestic output could begin regularly exceeding imports.  BP’s recently published long-term outlook predicts U.S. 99% energy independent by 2030.

7 Spring will find prices hopping…  As is the norm, retail prices will begin their seasonal run-up to the summer driving season.  In the past 28 years, the fall-to-spring “seasonal” run-up boosts prices 58% compared to autumn/winter.  Midway through 1Q FY13 there’ll be extensive refinery turnarounds & production cuts + transition from winter to summertime RVP.  Usually the spring run-up peak is reached in April, sometimes May.

8 …but just not as high  There’ll be a spike this spring but probably with a lower trajectory.  Last spring’s European & Caribbean refinery issues likely won’t repeat nor will threats of East Coast refinery shutdowns (due to poor margins).  Look for a 30-35% seasonal ride with RBOB futures in the $3.30-$3.45/gal range.

9 The West will remain wild  Last October, California prices raced above $4.70/gal (locally $5/gal +).  Within 60 days, inventories were back up and prices fell off more than $1.50/gal.  California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard continues to put pressure on fossil fuels and, by some estimates, could raise prices there as much as $2.50/gal by 2020.

10 Crudely speaking, we are a diverse nation  Western Canadian Select (WCS) crudes sold several times last year at a $40/bbl discount to WTI - the standard blend for delivery into the NYMEX at Cushing, Okla.  Price gap between WTI and Brent (the European crude contract supplying the East Coast) had been $14/bbl.  Crude costs may vary as much as $50/bbl between regions.  Midwest refiners capable of running heavy, sour crudes from Canada & WTI may be able to undersell coastal refineries by $1/gal.

11 Questions? Robert (Bob) Gough Director of Content Development Oil Price Information Service


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