1. Future scenario’s for higher education Dirk VAN DAMME Head of CERI/OECD

2. Scenario’s Coming out of the OECD/CERI project on ‘University Futures’ Not predictions, but consistent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures To help decision-makers and stakeholders to make strategic choices –Tools for futures thinking and strategic management –Drawing up imagination and creative thinking 9 December 2008 2 OECD/CERI/France conference

3. O PEN N ETWORKING Sc 1. O PEN N ETWORKING International collaboration and networking among institutions, scholars, students and with other actors such as industry Harmonization of HE systems High mobility of students designing their own courses and trajectories, modularization, technologically supported teaching and learning arrangements English as lingua franca Free and open knowledge exchange, international collaborative research and, although there still is hierarchy in institutions, open access to research 9 December 2008 3 OECD/CERI/France conference

4. O PEN N ETWORKING Sc 1. O PEN N ETWORKING Related developments: –Bologna Process in Europe and other examples of regional convergence, mobility –International academic partnerships and consortia –Cheap and fast communication by the Internet –Open access to knowledge 9 December 2008 4 OECD/CERI/France conference

5. S ERVING LOCAL COMMUNITIES Sc 2. S ERVING LOCAL COMMUNITIES Institutions focused on national, regional and local missions Educational an research activities tuned to the needs of local communities, although small number of internationally active institutions Funding secures by local governments and business Close relations to local industry for design of initial training and lifelong learning Research activities less prominent (eventually concentrated elsewhere), but teaching and learning seen as important (esp. in humanities and social sciences) 9 December 2008 5 OECD/CERI/France conference

6. S ERVING LOCAL COMMUNITIES Sc 2. S ERVING LOCAL COMMUNITIES Related developments: –Scepticism regarding globalisation, even anti- globalisation movements –Emergence of geo-strategic concerns and even protectionisms –New interest in regional functions of higher education –Interest in role of higher education in preserving national culture and fostering social cohesion 9 December 2008 6 OECD/CERI/France conference

7. N EW P UBLIC R ESPONSIBILITY Sc 3. N EW P UBLIC R ESPONSIBILITY Higher education publicly funded and regulated, but with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools: institutional autonomy, market forces, deregulation, financial incentives, etc. Increasing private resources, from tuition fees, patenting and industry relations Strong public accountability systems, but also more private reward systems (reputation, feedback from families and students) Diversification of institutions String competition for public research funding 9 December 2008 7 OECD/CERI/France conference

8. N EW P UBLIC R ESPONSIBILITY Sc 3. N EW P UBLIC R ESPONSIBILITY Related developments: –Accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness, responsiveness and forward vision as cornerstones of public management –Increasing institutional autonomy and growing private resources –Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees in many OECD- countries under debate to escape financial constraints of state budgets –Competitive research funding schemes 9 December 2008 8 OECD/CERI/France conference

9. H IGHER E DUCATION I NC. Sc 4. H IGHER E DUCATION I NC. Higher education institutions competing globally to provide education services and research services on a commercial basis Research and teaching disconnected and institutions specialise their mission according to demand High competition for students; trade in commercial knowledge, research and education (incl vocational) International competition and specialization; outsourcing of research and education, also with emerging economies; concentration of top-research English as language of research and postgraduate studies 9 December 2008 9 OECD/CERI/France conference

10. H IGHER E DUCATION I NC. Sc 4. H IGHER E DUCATION I NC. Related developments: –Trade liberalization in education; opening up educational services to global market; GATS –International market of research –Rise of private higher education and private funding in public systems –Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education 9 December 2008 10 OECD/CERI/France conference

11. global/international marketstate local/national Serving Local Communities Higher Education Inc. New Public Responsibility Open Networking