2. Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity (and Public Health) in Taiwan Pei-Fen Lee

3. North South North South Roads 36000 Km 2 68% vegetated cover

4. Elevation vs. Latitude

5. Long-term Prediction and Short-term Monitoring Long-term Species distribution database Environmental database Species distribution models Future projection from IPCC data Change in species distribution Short-term Alpine bird distribution (Yushan National Park)

6. Finch-billed Bulbul Finch-billed Bulbul ( 白環鸚嘴鵯 ) Species distribution data

7. Species Distribution Models Logistic regression Discriminant function analysis Artificial neural network (ANN) Cummulative distribution function Genetic algorithm (GARP) MaxEnt

8. From Occurrence to Probability White-eared Sibia （白耳畫眉）

9. Presence Maps Bufo melanosticus （ 黑眶蟾蜍） Microhyla inomata （ 史丹吉氏小雨蛙）

10. Climate Change Scenario RSM2 for 2100 (15 x 15 Km grid) CO 2 concentration expected to be doubled IPCC data (1 x 1 Km grid) Species Breeding birds (117 species, 75%) Amphibians (24 species, 73%) Freshwater fishes (25 species, 42%)

11. Climate Change Scenario Temperature: RSM2Precipitation: RSM2

12. IPCC data Annual mean temperature (˚C)

13. Annual Total Precipitation (mm)

14. Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) Low-elevation forest species Status: Vulnerable < 10,000 worldwide

15. Wintering Breeding (Apr. to Sep.) Source: BirdLife International

16. Mean: 22.3°C Range: 16~26°C n=514 Fairy Pitta: mean temperature 20-25°C 98%

17. 202020502100 CCS - B2 Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta 20-25°C Suitable

18. 202020502100 CMA - A2 Suitable Habitats for Fairy Pitta 20-25°C

19. Current 2020 2050 2100 Taiwan Yuhina Taiwan Yuhina: change in distribution due to climate change Reduced suitable habitat Moving toward higher elevation Dramatic change between 2050 and 2100 Suitable

20. Endemic Birds Decreasing-distribution: Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina Increasing-distribution: Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei

21. Decreasing-distribution: Decreasing-distribution: Taiwan Yuhina Increasing-distribution: Increasing-distribution: Taiwan Hwamei 15 species 2 species

22. Breeding Birds: change in species richness CurrentUnder RSM2 In 2100

23. Breeding birds: Breeding birds: change in species richness Decrease in low- elevation & mid-elevation Increase in high- elevation

24. Amphibians: change in species richness Current RSM2

25. Amphibians Amphibians: change in species richness Due to low dispersal ability, most frog species show local contraction in distribution Fragmentation

26. Freshwater Fish: change in richness Current RSM2

27. Freshwater Fish Negative impact: Low-mid elevation Positive impact: High elevation

28. Monitoring from 1922 to 2011 3100-3700 m in elevation in Yushan National Park

29. Breeding Bird Monitoring 1992, 2006 & 2009-2011

30. Vegetation types Vegetation zoneElevation range (m) Climatic zoneAnnual mean temperature range (°C) Alpine zone3800–3952Subarctic< 4 Juniper shrub3600–3800Subarctic4–5 Fir forests3100–3600Cold–temperate5–8 Hemlock forests2700–3100Cool–temperate8–10 Spruce forests2500–2700Cool–temperate10–11 Mixed forests2300–2500Temperate11–12 Upper Quercus zone 2000–2300Temperate12–14 Lower Quercus zone 1500–2000Warm–temperate14–17 Machilus– Castanopsis zone 500–1500Subtropical17–23

31. Population density (#/ha) Population density (#/ha): 1992, 2006 and 2009 High-elevation species Mid-elevation species 13 Species199220062009Trend Alpine Accentor11.354.424.95Down Wren58.6437.5621.90Down Vinaceus Rose Finch37.356.227.96Down Formosan Laughing Thrush40.215.193.01Down Johusten’s Bush Robin27.3611.948.66Down Formosan Firecrest144.3781.57132.10Uncertain White-browed Bush Robin11.9416.7111.97Uncertain Yellow-bellied Bush Warbler20.068.9513.13Uncertain Beavan’s Bullfinch0.325.091.02Uncertain Coal Tit14.905.579.93Uncertain Streak-throated Fulvetta40.5567.2090.54Up Orange Parrotbill0.003.9819.10Up Nuthatch0.00 5.66Up

32. Population Trend Density Decreasing: 5 high-elevation species Uncertain: 5 Increasing: 3 mid-elevation species 31 Wren Formosan Firecrest Streak-throated Fulvetta

33. Upper distribution limit (m) Species19922009Change Alpine Accentor3602361210 Wren3438 0 Vinaceus Rose Finch3438351374 Formosan Laughing Thrush34473438-9 Johusten’s Bush Robin3438349254 Formosan Firecrest3338342284 White-browed Bush Robin31823454272 Yellow-bellied Bush Warbler3338343496 Beavan’s Bullfinch3180320020 Coal Tit3223330380 Streak-throated Fulvetta32583401143 Orange Parrotbill3200? Nuthatch3200?

34. Changes between 1992 and 2009 2009 vs. 1992 Change in mean elevation (m)+42.9 Change in mean upper limit (m)+33.7

35. Community pattern Biodiversity increase in high elevation 34

36. Temperature Change Summer Winter

37. Decrease in snow days 1992 – 40 days 2006 – 11 days

38. Dongsha Atoll National Park South China Sea

39. Climate Change Impacts Under climate change, many species are expected to suffer a reduction in habitable area Because smaller areas support smaller populations, species extinction risk is expected to increase

40. Climate Change Impacts Short-term change observed in Yushan National Park is similar to those predicted in long-term distribution trend Protected areas may turn out to be in the wrong place in the shifting template of temperature and moisture

41. Climate Change Impacts Ecological disturbance in human dominated areas Reduced species richness More pests and unwanted grass species Potential public health problem E.g., dengue fever

42. Dengue Trend in Southern Taiwan 2002

44. Dengue and Precipitation 2002/6/1

45. Dengue case distribution Only concentrated in certain districts

46. Dengue and Urban Development Older community Rural region City and county junction Low biodiversity and potentially less managed areas

47. Bio-indicators for Climate Change Different species groups Bird, amphibian, fish, barnacle Different ecosystems (spatial) Urban, coastal, high mountain Different temporal scales Month, season, year, decade, …

48. Barnacle distribution 21 species

49. nMDS plot

50. Barnacle distribution Species occurrence Abundance