1. CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW
WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting
Geneva, November, 2004
CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj
University of Ljubljana
Slovenia

2. Weather, Climate and Farmers

3. OBSERVED CHANGE

4. Observed Global Temperature Change 1861-2003

5. Annual surface temperature trends for periods 1901 to 2000, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000 (°C/decade)
Source: Folland et al. (2001)

6. More than Global Warming
Changes in Extremes
Summer 2003 in Europe
But climate change is more than a steady global rise of temperature. There will be spatial and temporal variations.
The changes in temperature are expected to be greatest over the continents, particularly in northern latitudes during winter - perhaps some 40% more than the global average.
In addition, from simple statistics, we can expect changes in the frequency and variability of extreme events as this slide shows. To my mind, this is much more of a concern. It is often the extreme events, short though they may be in duration, that cause the most damage.
The graph on the right-hand side shows just how extreme were last summer’s temperatures in Europe.

7. Regional temperature change 1900 to 2000
Models are based on physics and not history. Match is because climate must obey the laws of physics. The warming since 1950 is not natural…
1.0
0.5
-0.5
North America
Asia
Europe
Temperature change C
1900
2000
2000
1900
1900
2000
model natural factors
observations
model natural + human factors
Computer models versus observations: finding a human signal

8. PREDICTIONS

9. Global Temperature 1000 – 2100 AD (IPCC)
2.0
0.0
6.0
4.0
Change (°C) from average
1000
1500
2000
Observations (proxy data)
Observations (instrumental)
Projections

10. The SRES driving forces and storylines
Nakicenovic et al. (2000)

11. IPCC Data Distribution Centre http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk
Provides climate and related data,
impact and adaptation assessment
with emphasis on the needs of developing countries
- climate model projections and observed climate data
- socio-economic baseline and scenario data
- other environmental information (atm. composition, sea level)
- supporting documentation and guidance material

13. Hard copies available

14. South Europe and N Africa (Region 14): 2010-2039

15. Large area model General Circulation Model Climate change scenario
Regional climate model
Climate change scenario
spatial
variability
Crop
model
model
uncertainties
Large area model
crop
forecast
for future
output
processing

18. Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model)
160
40°N
40°S
140
120
100
Change in
frequency
(%) 80 60 40 20
–20
>25.6
Daily rainfall class (mm day –1 )

19. UNCERTAINTY

20. Cascade of uncertainty
CO2 concentration
Global-mean sea level
Global-mean temperature
Regional temperatures
Regional temperature extremes
Regional precipitation
Cloud cover
Climatic variability / extremes
High confidence
Low confidence

21. Cascade of Uncertainty in Assessment of Impacts

22. IMPACTS

23. The climate change affects on agriculture
Productivity (quantity and quality)
Agricultural practices (changes of water use, agricultural inputs -herbicides, insecticides, fertilizers)
Environmental level (frequency and intensity of soil drainage -nitrogen leaching, soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity)
Rural space (loss of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, hydraulic amenities)

24. Several changing parameters impact agriculture
a direct effect is the composition of the earth atmosphere :CO2 and ozone (CH4, NO2 and CFC to have no impact on physiological processus).
some indirect effects are climate parameters resulting from climate change : temperature, insolation, rainfall, humidity
other indirect effects are the side effects due to the climatic changes : increase of the sea level, changes in ocean currents, tornadoes..

25. Additional People at Risk of Hunger
under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios,
(Parry, et al. in Global Environmental Change, 2004)
200
180
160
140
120
Additional Millions of People
100 80 60 40 20
2020
2050
2080
A2 - Regional Enterprise
B2 - Local Stewardship

26. Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions
N. England + -
% Yield
S. Europe
0.5
1.0
Deg C
N. India
Local food production ?
Regional food security ?
Global food security ?

27. Why farmers in developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change 1) Impacts are worse
Coastal
vulnerability
Closer to margin of tolerance
Economic
structure
Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure
2) Lower capacity to adapt
Availability of
technology
Institutional capacity
Know-how
and education
Financial
capacity

28. Climate Sensitivity Functions of the US and India Mendelsohn and Dinar (2000)
US Response Function
Impact on Farm Value/Net Income (billions of US $)
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
India Response Function
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Temperature Change, oC

29. MITIGATION
no uncertainty on the need to stabilize GHG concentration in atmosphere
need to initiate mitigation urgently

30. Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases
Reduce
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Atmospheric C to store
in soils and
perennial crops
Remove
Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials
Replace

31. Opportunities for mitigation in agriculture
Carbon sequestration (possibly increasing N2O)
Land management (tillage, irrigation management, fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating fallow)
Land use change to grassland, forest
Emission reduction: CO2, N2O, methane
Energy emissions (direct, induced energy use)
Livestock: enteric fermentation, manure management
Bio-energy products, renewables (reduces energy CO2 emissions)

32. GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture
Sink Enhancing
Management Practices
Increase no-till
Decrease summerfallow
Increase hay in crop rotation
Improve grazing management
Increase permanent cover
Increase shelterbelts
GHG Source-Reducing
Improve nutrient management
Improve feeding management
Improve manure management

33. REDUCE, REMOVE, REPLACE + RESPOND
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Respond
The climate is going to change requiring adaptation
Agricultural
GHG
Management
Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial crops
Remove
Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials
Replace

34. ADAPTATION
‘adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their impacts …
...to moderate damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change’

35. Concept of adaptation in agriculture
Adaptation refers to responses by
individuals,
groups and
governments
to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects
to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential,
or to realize opportunities
associated with climate change (Dolan et al., 2001).
Responses should be beneficial regardless of how or whether climate changes

36. Adjustment Time (years)
Adaptation Options
Possible at various levels - farmer, economic agent, macro
Potential and costs of adaptation - possibly through historic analysis of technology penetration
Reilly and Schimmelpfenng (1999) show the relative speed of adoption of various measures:
Adaptation Measure
Adjustment Time (years)
Variety Adoption
3-14
Dams and Irrigation
50-100
Variety Development
8-15
Tillage Systems
10-12
Opening New Lands
3-10
Irrigation Equipment
20-25
Fertilizer Adoption 10

37. Relative Inertia in Adaptation
Costing adaptation table

38. Climate adaptation
should be iterative

40. Adaptation options (+technique needs)
Development and adoption of new technologies
Promotion of agriculture extension services
Improving water management
Improving farm management
Diversification of income earning and employment opportunities
Institutional planning and implementation
Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity including investment and accumulation of capital.

41. Development and adoption of new technologies Mechanical innovations
- irrigation
- conservation tillage
- integrated drainage systems
Crop breeding (“climate” resistant varieties)
- improved resistance to changing diseases and insects
- heat and drought resistant crop varieties
- use of traditional varieties bred for storm and drought resistance
- investment in seed banks
Biotechnology

42. Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis
Biotechnology:
Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis
(tobacco with gene from Arabidosis thaliana)
Genetically
modified

43. Promotion of agriculture extension services
key role in promoting agriculture productivity in developing countries
Improving water management
better water distribution strategies
changing crop and irrigation schedules to use rainfall
more effectively
improving irrigation technologies
water recycling and the conjunctive use of groundwater
water price

44. Improving farm management
changing farm production practices
diversification of crop and livestock varieties
replacement of plant types, cultivars and animal breeds with climate resistant new varieties
altering the intensity of fertilizer, pesticide application
modernization and improving farm level managerial capacity: altering capital and labor inputs to reduce risks
Diversification of income earning and employment opportunities
alternative livelihood options need to be encouraged
income diversification
off farm activities (trading home produced goods, providing services)

45. Institutional planning and implementation
Institutional reforms (to achive decision-making structures that support long term planning and enhance adaptations to both short and long term climate impacts)
The governments need to reverse declining investments in agricultural research and extension
Improved training and general education of populations dependent on agriculture

46. Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity, including investment and accumulation of capital
The adjustment of capital (and labor) inputs can
help farmers to make the necessary adaptations
Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes in prices, mask the climate change signal in the marketplace
Food programs and other social security programs
to provide insurance against supply changes

47. What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?
All
mitigation
Cost of
impacts
less
more
Cost of
mitigation
less
more
Mix of
mitigate/
adapt/
impact
No action
All adaptation
Cost of
adaptation
less
more
(Holdridge diagram)

48. Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change

49. CONCLUSIONS
Agrometeorologist should help farmers make transition from “passive acceptance” of climate change by equipping them to make an “active response”
Both agrometeorologists and farmers should realize as soon as possible that
The past may not longer be a good guide
for the future.
Adaptation cannot be a substitute mitigation